Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

2 new polls today:

IMAS/Krone is the weirdest one (NEOS only at 4%), but the sample size is big (n=1.000):



http://www.krone.at/Politik/Dreikampf_zwischen_Faymann._Mitterlehner_-_Strache-Polit-Jahreszeugnis-Story-432126

Unique Research/Profil is in line with other recent polls (n=500):

28% ÖVP
25% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS

http://www.profil.at/articles/1451/980/378723/umfrage-oevp-platz-1-spoe-fpoe

[Tender Branson]

There's absolutely nothing going on here politically in the next 2 weeks.

Political Austria is in hibernation until Jan. 6 (Three Kings Day).

[Tender Branson]

There's absolutely nothing going on here politically in the next 2 weeks.

Political Austria is in hibernation until Jan. 6 (Three Kings Day).

Well, not entirely:

The (SPÖVP) government presented a compromise plan to re-organize and fund the (chronically underfunded) military. Many heavy battle tanks (but not all*) will be sold, some military bases will be closed (but not all) and transformed into asylum seeker quarters and some military bands will be cut (but not all). Yes, in Austria there's an official army band in every state ...

* The SPÖ's plan wanted to sell much more tanks than the ÖVP, close much more army bases and cut virtually all army bands. The ÖVP, historically a strong supporter of the military, was opposed. They met somewhere in between.

The military will also get an additional funding of ca. 1 Bio. over the next years for modernisation.

...

Also, the government presented their plans to outfit all kids up to the age of 18 and with wrong teeth with free braces.

...

Also, the highly competent new Finance Minister Schelling finally sold the Balkan-network of the HYPO disaster bank to an American investment fund. The previous 3 Finance Ministers (Pröll, Fekter, Spindelegger) dragged out the decision about the HYPO and the establishment of a bad-bank and the taxpayer had to pay even more.

[Tender Branson]

4 new polls today:

"Akonsult" federal election poll for the "Bezirksblätter"

26% FPÖ
26% ÖVP
24% SPÖ
14% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% Others

"Akonsult" 2016 Presidential election poll for the "Bezirksblätter"

33% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
29% Erwin Pröll (ÖVP)
21% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
15% Josef Moser (FPÖ)
  2% Others

http://www.akonsult.at/akonsult-umfrage-zur-steuerreform-bundespraesidentenwahl-etc/

Tirol state election poll by Gallup for the "TT"

38% ÖVP
15% Greens
15% SPÖ
13% FPÖ
  7% NEOS
  4% FRITZ
  3% VT
  5% Others

http://www.tt.com/home/9429021-91/was-tirols-parteien-eint-alle-sp%C3%BCren-noch-luft-nach-oben.csp

Tirol state election poll by GMK for the "Bezirksblätter"

42% ÖVP
17% Greens
15% FPÖ
12% SPÖ
  3% NEOS
  3% FRITZ
  3% VT
  5% Others

http://www.meinbezirk.at/nassereith/politik/exklusive-bezirksblaetterumfrage-regierungszeugnis-faellt-nur-maessig-aus-d1193926.html

The current state government in Tyrol is ÖVP-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

New federal OGM poll for the "Kurier" newspaper (sample = 800):

26% FPÖ
26% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
14% Greens
  7% NEOS
  1% TS
  1% Others

Like usual, majorities for FPÖVP, SPÖVP and FPÖSPÖ.

No majority for ÖVP-Greens-NEOS or SPÖ-Greens-NEOS.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/ausblick-auf-2015-wahlen-hypo-steuerreform/105.537.404

[Tender Branson]

Because it's already 2015, here's more on the timing of the 4 state elections this year:

* Burgenland state election (no later than May)
* Upper Austria state election (no later than September)
* Styria state election (no later than September)
* Vienna state election (no later than October)

...

Burgenland's SPÖ-governor wants to vote ahead of Vienna, which means at the end of May. He wants to avoid being drowned in the media by the Häupl vs. Strache match for Vienna mayor.

Vienna's mayor favours an earlier date right after the Vienna Eurovision Song Contest Final at the end of May, because he thinks that his SPÖ might get a boost if it turns out successful. Mid-June is therefore most likely. Häupl (the mayor) also wants to ride the coattails of a potential big victory of Burgenland's SPÖ-Governor.

Upper Austria's ÖVP-governor wants to vote ahead of Styria, because the FPÖ will gain big in Styria this year and therefore wants to avoid the media coverage about an FPÖ-increase. Upper Austria will therefore vote ca. 1-2 weeks before Styria, in mid-September.

Styria will probably vote last this year, with a window between mid-September and end-September. Nobody wants to vote during the summer holidays, which end in the 2nd week of September. Because the incumbent SPÖ/ÖVP government will be heavily punished by the voters, the late election date is not a danger for the other states. Most likely date: end of September.

[Tender Branson]

Timing of the 6 municipal elections this year:

* Lower Austria (25 January), in 570/573 towns (not in St. Pölten, Krems, Waidhofen/Ybbs)

* Carinthia (1 March), in all towns

* Vorarlberg (15 March), in all towns

* Styria (22 March), in all towns except Graz

* Vienna (together with the state election), in all districts

* Upper Austria (together with the state election), in all towns

...

Municipal elections (mayors and city councils) are usually dominated by the ÖVP (except in Vienna, Carinthia and Burgenland).

[Tender Branson]

3 new polls for the 4 state elections this year (meinungsraum.at for NEWS magazine, sample was 500 people for each state, they did not poll Burgenland):

VIENNA



STYRIA



UPPER AUSTRIA

[Tender Branson]

If the Styria state election poll is true, the KPÖ (Communist Party) might drop out of the state parliament this year.


"Help ! Living is too expensive."

That would suck of course, because the KPÖ is virtually the only party that is a competent source for poor people with housing problems (such as finding affordable appartments, outfitting it with washing machines etc.)

In general, the KPÖ offers these poor people advice about how to best solve these problems.

On top of that, the KPÖ also donated more than 110.000€ last year to poor people with housing problems or who are on the verge of being evicted.

KPÖ-MPs in Styria donate ca. 75% of their salary as MPs to social causes.

http://www.kpoe-steiermark.at/tag-der-offenen-konten-2014.phtml

...

Of course, a poll with 3% is not the end of the world and the KPÖ might eventually get some pissed-off SPÖ-voters on election day. The KPÖ can also bank on a basic mandate in the capital city Graz, where they are particularly strong (10%+).

[republicanbayer]

Why is the KPÖ so strong in Styria while polling under the threshold in the rest of Austria and how can you compare them to other European Left Parties, are they real hardcore communists like the greek KKE?

[SNJ1985]

According to this article; Burgenland is where the FPÖ has its best shot at entering the state government.

[Tender Branson]

Why is the KPÖ so strong in Styria while polling under the threshold in the rest of Austria and how can you compare them to other European Left Parties, are they real hardcore communists like the greek KKE?

The Styrian KPÖ was not really strong either until around the year 2000 (getting mostly around 1% in the state elections).

That changed with their new leader Ernest Kaltenegger, who moved the party away from an ideological hardcore Communist Party (like the Eastern European ones) to a more practical and hands-on party based on grass-roots, that focuses mostly on renter-related problems and how to best help them (see my post above).

Today, the KPÖ is mostly a party for the working/non-working poor, a segment of the population that would normally be a SPÖ-clientel. But the SPÖ virtually only has "helping poor people" in their party platform, without actually doing much (they are now mostly a party of/for retired people).

With this new populist approach by Kaltenegger, the KPÖ-Styria (or better said, Graz) achieved one of the best results ever in the 2000s. And Kaltenegger became one of the most popular city politicians in Graz, until he retired from politics in 2009. Today's KPÖ still has a solid base of regular clients and voters and they are still riding the coattails of Kaltenegger, but it might be wearing off a bit.

According to this article; Burgenland is where the FPÖ has its best shot at entering the state government.

That's correct, but unlikely even in Burgenland. The governor of Burgenland (Hans Niessl from the SPÖ) is someone who in the American sense would be seen as a big-tent "blue-dog" Social Democrat, who sometimes takes center-right positions on issues such as immigration to appeal to FPÖ or ÖVP-voters. That's also the reason why his state SPÖ regularly gets around 50% in state elections, while the federal SPÖ slides further and further. It's also the reason why the FPÖ there is so weak (polling 8-10% right now).

Niessl might or might not achieve an absolute majority in the state election in May, but if he does not, he would probably enter a coalition with the ÖVP - rather than the FPÖ. But even if he chooses the FPÖ, the FPÖ would be nothing more than an appendix with nothing much to say.

[SNJ1985]

Thanks.

I wonder why meinungsraum.at didn't poll Burgenland.

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

I wonder why meinungsraum.at didn't poll Burgenland.

I guess because Burgenland is the smallest state and it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Niessl-SPÖ will win big there.

[Tender Branson]

New federal Gallup poll:



Also:

Recently, a popular newspaper journalist died of lung cancer, which re-ignited the debate about a total smoking ban here (currently, the restaurant owners have the possibility to establish smoking and non-smoking zones in their restaurants, which are sealed off from each other).

The new Gallup poll shows that Austrians now support a total smoking ban in restaurants by a 52-43 margin.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150110_OTS0002/mehrheit-will-laut-oesterreich-umfrage-rauchverbot-in-lokalen

[SNJ1985]

I am happy to see the FPÖ in the lead.

[Tender Branson]

I am happy to see the FPÖ in the lead.

"lead" is relative, FPÖ-ÖVP-SPÖ are all well within the MoE.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll (Gallup for the Ö24 tabloid):

38% SPÖ (-6%)
26% FPÖ (nc)
14% Greens (+1%)
13% ÖVP (-1%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  3% Others (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150110_OTS0041/oesterreich-umfrage-weiter-rot-gruene-mehrheit-in-wien

The polls are really stable in the last few months.

The SPÖ-Green government still leads 52-45.

[SNJ1985]

I am happy to see the FPÖ in the lead.

"lead" is relative, FPÖ-ÖVP-SPÖ are all well within the MoE.

Yep, that's true.

[peterould]

New Vienna poll (Gallup for the Ö24 tabloid):

38% SPÖ (-6%)
26% FPÖ (nc)
14% Greens (+1%)
13% ÖVP (-1%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  3% Others (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150110_OTS0041/oesterreich-umfrage-weiter-rot-gruene-mehrheit-in-wien

The polls are really stable in the last few months.

The SPÖ-Green government still leads 52-45.

Hi guys,

Just checking in on this thread as we gear up for an interesting year. Glad to be back in on the Austrian action.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll (Gallup for the Ö24 tabloid):

38% SPÖ (-6%)
26% FPÖ (nc)
14% Greens (+1%)
13% ÖVP (-1%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  3% Others (nc)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150110_OTS0041/oesterreich-umfrage-weiter-rot-gruene-mehrheit-in-wien

The polls are really stable in the last few months.

The SPÖ-Green government still leads 52-45.

Hi guys,

Just checking in on this thread as we gear up for an interesting year. Glad to be back in on the Austrian action.

Good to see you back after your long absence.

[Tender Branson]

Recently, a popular newspaper journalist died of lung cancer, which re-ignited the debate about a total smoking ban here (currently, the restaurant owners have the possibility to establish smoking and non-smoking zones in their restaurants, which are sealed off from each other).

The new Gallup poll shows that Austrians now support a total smoking ban in restaurants by a 52-43 margin.

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20150110_OTS0002/mehrheit-will-laut-oesterreich-umfrage-rauchverbot-in-lokalen

So, the SPÖVP government has apparently agreed to pass a full smoking ban in restaurants and compensate the owners who already set up non-smoking areas in their restaurants.

Now the debate has shifted to the smoking age. Currently, Austrian teens can buy cigs starting at the age of 16 (but most start way earlier). Austrian kids and teens have one of the world's highest smoking rates (if not the highest). The smoking rate among Austrian women is the highest in the world, from what I remember. The opinions on raising the smoking age to 18 are pretty mixed though. Family and Youth Minister Sophie Karmasin (ÖVP) is in favor of raising the age to 18 and she's backed by most of the SPÖ. But the ÖVP leader and Vice-Chancellor Mitterlehner is somewhat opposed to it.

[SNJ1985]

What's the FPÖ's position on the matter?

[Tender Branson]

What's the FPÖ's position on the matter?

With the ÖVP having "evolved" recently on this issue and moving away from being a backer of the restaurant owner lobby, the FPÖ is now the only party left to back the status-quo law.

"Status-quo" means allowing restaurant owners to decide if they are A) fully smoking restaurants, B) a mix of smoking and non-smoking restaurant (areas are sealed off from each other) or C) fully non-smoking restaurants.

The restaurant owner lobby is pretty strong and they fear that customers might stay home if a full ban is introduced. But the lobby has recently been appeased, with the government offering them compensations for the construction changes they made when sealing off the areas in the restaurants. They seem to be more or less OK now with a full smoking ban. Some are still reluctant though because of the customer loss.

[Tender Branson]

A parliamentary investigation committee was set up now, to fully examine some 15 years of the HYPO bank debacle.

The opposition parties (FPÖ, Greens, NEOS) jointly introduced the plan for the investigation committee and SPÖVP agreed. Technically, SPÖVP could have voted against but it wouldn't have mattered since an investigation committee can be set up by 25% of MPs under the new rules.

FPÖ, Greens, NEOS have said that they want it to be a "fair, but thorough investigation" and "not a tribunal against former politicians from SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, BZÖ".

This means that, contrary to the independent Griss commission, all major players (incl. ÖVP-Finance Ministers, bankers etc.) can be subpoenaed before the parliamentary investigation committee.

http://derstandard.at/2000010402468/Nach-zwei-Dutzend-Anlaeufen-wird-jetzt-die-Hypo-untersucht

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/14/austria-hypo-idUSL6N0US3G120150114