Why will Donald Trump win or lose in your view?

[Adam Griffin]

Trump will lose because he has pushed the Republican Party to near-caricature status, and in the process, has alienated millions upon millions of people who would have otherwise at least taken a look at the GOP after 8 years of a Democratic White House. In fact, his presence may have permanently alienated many of these voters from ever looking at the Republican Party again.

The groups of people who sympathize with him are consistently declining in numbers and influence, and have been doing so for quite some time. Concurrently, the groups of people who find even broad elements of his worldview unpalatable continue to increase in number.

If your party can't win a federal election from its current ideological position, then it will never win one from an even more extreme position. This is what Trump offers America. Democrats have won the popular vote in five out of the past six presidential elections and three out of the past five congressional elections. And there is no evidence that the country as a whole in moving in the direction of the GOP when it comes to popular sentiment.

[Adam Griffin]

1). The GOP cannot win minorities, which hurts them now more than it ever did. This problem predates Donald Trump, so it's not his fault.

2). The Polarized, inelastic electorate means Hillary automatically has most of Obama's voters from the start, without her even trying; and Trump has little means of getting their support. 

In other words, the current environment and the Republican brand are the main reasons for which Trump will lose.

Compared to 2012, all he had to do was improve white performance by 2 points, rebound to the historically-normal 10% among black voters, and improve 5 points among Latinos and Asians. All of that was perfectly possible this cycle...at least for most GOP candidates. Putting the race completely out of reach was Trump's doing and his doing alone.