Ireland General Discussion

[Oakvale]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

Is Alex White a serious candidate? I mean, he's absolutely certain to lose his seat next time around. Also yet another Labour leader with a student-Trot/USI background? As for Howlin, too identified with the government this stage imo.

Is the new leader going to be another sticky?

Joan Burton is the favourite, so no, if her. There aren't all that many ex-WP TDs in the Parliamentary Labour Party, even if they include some of the most prominent members. Even that Gilmore has resigned shows that the leadership recognizes that something has to give... so my guess is probably not. Not sure who can save Labour now though.

It's all fairly academic since the only way I see Joan Burton not being the next leader of the Labour Party is if for some reason she doesn't stand, really.

e: Though re: Alex White it's worth noting that Burton herself could have a bit of an issue with retaining her seat next election, albeit not quite as clear-cut.

[Oakvale]

I doubt White has the support to make a serious run at it.

I agree, and yet he's in, for some reason. No-one I know in Labour gives him much of a chance although he'll probably do well among the parliamentary party. Then again, most people I know in Labour told me Brendan Howlin was likely to stand so, er...

I almost (almost) wish I'd renewed my membership now. I'd be part of an increasingly rare and undistinguished club and would have the opportunity to vote against the ex-Trot and Sticky entryists that have nearly completed their apparent mission to destroy the party. There's something very fitting about the fact that the ex-Trotskyist candidate represents one of the most middle-class constituencies in the country.

[Oakvale]

I don't know what you're talking about. If your point is that some parts of Irish society where sympathetic to the Nazis (or the Germans, really) during World War II, that's true but only due to them not being the British rather than any ideological affection for fascism. There's a reason the Blueshirts were pretty much a joke (although de Valera doing the smart thing and banning them didn't hurt).

In other, more grim news, the government's apparently establishing a cross-party commission to investigate these mass graves we've been hearing about. One of the (few) things Enda's been really quite good at is confronting the malign legacy of the Catholic state, which I wouldn't necessarily have expected from a career TD in his sixties from Mayo, so this is heartening.

[Oakvale]

That poll's numbers on the Labour leadership are quite interesting. lol Alex White.

[Oakvale]

Where are you getting those numbers, politicus?

[Oakvale]

Fluoride crusade bounce!

[Oakvale]

Kind of the opposite take I would have expected from someone rambling about the gene pool and IQ scores.

[Oakvale]

Not sure if we can touch much on the other big story of the last week (every news article I've seen has the comments closed to avoid legal problems) so I'll just leave this here.

[Oakvale]

I see B&A has reverted to the mean after that weird poll a few months back.

[Oakvale]

New Irish Times poll out, figures are as follows:


Gombeens, Trots and ward-heelers:

Sinn Fein:

 

Fine Gael:



Fianna Fail:



Labour:

[Oakvale]

Some interesting findings from that horrible poll here. SF somehow score best on "lowering taxes" and "protecting the most vulnerable" which really says everything you need to know about Irish politics at the moment.

[Oakvale]

Never let it be said that I'm an admirer of the Irish political punditocracy but exiling Lucinda Creighton to (however temporary) political Antarctica is probably the best thing Kenny's done in his career. I can't imagine her long-awaited political party - the, er, RA - would amount to much if it actually happens considering it would be little more than Fine Gael, but more so.

Sidenote about Dennis O'Brien (who I don't particularly care about either way - he's a bit of a sleazebag but that's millionaires for you) - there were four or five crusties "protesting" at a Topaz garage down the road from me. Apparently because Dennis O'Brien owns a ~25% share in the business they were hoping to blockade the place and stop cars from entering. No shrieking of PEACEFUL PROTEST while throwing bricks at the police, though.

[Oakvale]

Never let it be said that I'm an admirer of the Irish political punditocracy but exiling Lucinda Creighton to (however temporary) political Antarctica is probably the best thing Kenny's done in his career. I can't imagine her long-awaited political party - the, er, RA - would amount to much if it actually happens considering it would be little more than Fine Gael, but more so.

They can try presenting themselves as a more principled, less compromised version of FG. The candidate they supported in the Dublin South West by-election (McMahon) came close to outpolling FG (although that was as much due to the collapse in government support as anything else).

I think Kenny overplayed it by announcing that none of the expelled TDs would be allowed to stand in the following election. Better to let things cool down gradually.

That's true but (as I recall) McMahon very explicitly ran as I AM AN INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE despite his support from the Creighton circle. Once the shine wore off a new party - and I don't think that would take long - I'm not sure that a Reform Alliance candidate would do as well. I could see the 'RA ending up as at best a kind of Independent Fianna Fáil organisation for cowering Fine Gael candidates.

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Hahahahaha I did not see this. That's incredible. He should be a Reform Alliance candidate. Or at least learn that people on the political left tend to lack a sense of humour.

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...there was about three people when I wander past a couple of weeks back but perhaps I was early (or this was some unrelated protest).

[Oakvale]

Grim. At least I can enjoy the Sindo spin.

[Oakvale]

[Oakvale]

Not particularly surprising (people make assumptions about single/unmarried politicians, even relatively young ones), but this exchange was amusing -

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[Oakvale]

FF continuing their triumphant comeback.

[Oakvale]

If FF get lower than they did in 2011, I will piss myself laughing.

Looking forward to them hopefully losing the unloseable Carlow-Kilkenny by-election to some crackpot independent again.

[Oakvale]

Me and Gully were talking about that poll the other night and how terrible the Irish media is at understanding polls. The last Red C had SF randomly drop 4 or 5 points, and now they return to the position virtually every other poll has them in and it's a SHOCK RESULT.

[Oakvale]

Averil Power is terrible, of course, but it's pretty amusing that Micheal Martin has once again had to say his leadership isn't under threat literally a day after winning that crucial by-election. Poor guy.

[Oakvale]

HISTORIC COMEBACK FOR FF

[Oakvale]

Typically expert analysis from P.ie incidentally -

[Oakvale]

Not to indulge in the Irish media's favourite hobby of overanalysing margin-of-error shifts in polls, but you have to wonder where that SD vote is coming from.

[Oakvale]

Slightly annoying that they're releasing a pre-budget (apparently?) poll now but I suppose they want to see how much the election date hilarity hurt?

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Historic comeback

[Oakvale]

I'm going to make a prediction here:

The government will be re-elected (or at least FG and LAB will be the main part of the next government).

I'm inclined to agree, yes.

As I said the other day, it is fun and strange to be entering a second general election where the leader of FF stands no chance of being Taoiseach.