Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[KingSweden]

If Sanders wins CA by the margin he's winning WA, then he'll have a chance.

The demographics of CA are very different, though. He'll dominate the Bay Area, however

Exactly. I was implying that there was no way it would happen. He might win CA, but it would be a narrow win, which isn't what he needs.

California's Democratic electorate will be more than 50% non-white. Good luck winning with that.

Ah, I missed your wink face. My apologies!

[Flake]

Franklin County goes 80-20 Sanders

Franklin County 2008: 51% Obama

[Alcon]

Have all the caucus places in Washington closed yet, Alcon?  When can we call it?

It's not so much about "closing," but when the organizers get things together and turn them in -- that can be a while after the site has "closed" for public voting.  I'd be shocked if any precincts aren't done voting.  Caucus sites still getting their stuff together...yeah, that's possible.  Basically, I think all the votes have been counted and delegates allocated.  The next step is to get them to a central site that reports them.  That's most of the lag here.

Franklin County goes 80-20 Sanders

That's interesting, since it has a lot of Latino voters and was close in 2008.

Why do these wealthier precincts vote clinton when sanders is less religious?

Religion is a non-issue, until crazy far-right wing people try to enforce it.

religion has absolutely been one of the reasons for sanders trouble in the black south.

Religion is part of the cultural clash between Sanders and southern blacks, but I don't think it's the main thing.  In any case, the rich voters are mostly pretty to very secular; a lot of them are voting Clinton because...well, for obvious reasons, rich people are mostly less excited about Sanders.  They also tend to be in more Clinton-friendly demographics anyway (they're older).  I don't think there are many secular people (except hardcore young ones perhaps) who are voting against Clinton for being "too religious," in any case...

[Lyin' Steve]

At this point, the only two people in the history of the modern Democratic Party primary system who did better than Bernie Sanders but didn't win the Democratic nomination were Gary Hart and Hillary '08.

Jackson '88 and Kennedy '80 were both strong as well.

Humphrey '72 is probably never going to be beat, because McGovern stole the nomination from him at the convention.

Also 1968, but once we go back past the 80s it starts to make less sense to talk about there being a democratic primary at all.

[Xing]

Okay, I think they can call it now. Unless Clinton wins King county 65-35, she's not winning here.

[The Other Castro]

Sorry if this was mentioned before, but does Alaska have a 15% threshold?

[NeverAgain]

At this point, the only two people in the history of the modern Democratic Party primary system who did better than Bernie Sanders but didn't win the Democratic nomination were Gary Hart and Hillary '08.

You forgot Hillary '16.

[Matty]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

[JerryArkansas]

Sorry if this was mentioned before, but does Alaska have a 15% threshold?

All states on the Democratic side do.

[Gass3268]

Sorry if this was mentioned before, but does Alaska have a 15% threshold?

Yes, like all Democratic states.

[dax00]

Sorry if this was mentioned before, but does Alaska have a 15% threshold?

Clinton will get to keep whatever district delegates she has now, even if she does fall below 15%. If she doesn't have 15% on May 14 (State Convention), all 16 pledged delegates in Alaska would go to Sanders.

At least that's how I interpret Alaska.

[Xing]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

That's not going to happen, but even so, no. WA is a Democratic state through and through.

[cwt]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

I think so. If you do a real quick estimation, Sanders is getting 75% in the caucus, Obama got 56% in the general election in 2012. .75 * .56 = .42. And Mitt Romney got 41% in 2012.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Grays Harbor goes Sanders 72-27

[Flake]

Grays Harbor 2008: 55% Obama
Grays Harbor 2016: 73% Sanders

[Alcon]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

I think so. If you do a real quick estimation, Sanders is getting 75% in the caucus, Obama got 56% in the general election in 2012. .75 * .56 = .42. And Mitt Romney got 41% in 2012.

Caucusgoers are totally unrepresentative of even Washington Democrats.  Watch the pointless May primary have drastically higher turnout and Sanders do quite a bit worse.  Also, a huge proportion of Sanders supporters will vote Clinton if she's the nominee over a third-party challenge.

Grays Harbor 2008: 55% Obama
Grays Harbor 2016: 73% Sanders

That area typifies the kind of area Sanders would outperform Obama -- economically devastated whites.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

I think so. If you do a real quick estimation, Sanders is getting 75% in the caucus, Obama got 56% in the general election in 2012. .75 * .56 = .42. And Mitt Romney got 41% in 2012.

Not all the those voters will vote Sanders in the General if he ran as a third party, many would vote Clinton. I am not sure Sanders would even get more then 20% in that scenario.

[muon2]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

That's not going to happen, but even so, no. WA is a Democratic state through and through.

Gore beat Bush by 6% in WA while Nader got 4% in 2000.

[Flake]

Okanogan County 2008: 82%
Okanogan County 2016: 87%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Okanogan County goes Sanders 87-13
Klickitat County goes Sanders 83-17

[Xing]

if sanders ran third party, would a generic R compete with hilalry in WA?

damn these margins are insane.

That's not going to happen, but even so, no. WA is a Democratic state through and through.

Gore beat Bush by 6% in WA while Nader got 4% in 2000.

Your point is? Maine was similarly close in 2000, and Gore didn't even win Vermont by double-digits.

[Donnie]

 Let's dispel with this fiction that the bird story had nothing to do with today's Clinton massacre!

[cwt]

Okanogan County 2008: 82%
Okanogan County 2016: 87%

His best county in the state so far.

[Ebowed]

My family's precinct in Bellevue went for Sanders with 81%

[Flake]

Klickitat County 2008: 66% Obama
Klickitat County 2016: 83% Sanders