Democratic Freak States Holy Saturday results thread (1st caucuses begin @1pmET)

[RaphaelDLG]

At least there are some sane states left to avenge Bernie for the filthy South and its voters with their Hillary-fetish ...

Tender, you do realize that your remarks will probably end up single-handedly taking down Bernie Sanders?

By "its people" I was talking about the Whites there too, not only the Blacks. The Whites down there are much more pro-Hillary than elsewhere ...

All I'm saying is that if you immediately begin to hate a part of the country that didn't vote for your lord and savior Bernie Sanders, you're going to have a bad time.

FWIW I hate the South* and I've lived there all my life!!


*not really, and there are good and bad, brilliant and stupid people everywhere, and any area with millions of people has wildly different people/areas therein that run the entire gamut, but in aggregate it is most definitely more culturally backward and sh**tty than the rest of the United States

[RaphaelDLG]

Someone on twitter is claiming the 98% Sanders thing is a lie.

https://twitter.com/withmeyourheart/status/713826069296451584

1484 is the number of the precinct, they say. The actual result is 28-11. If people would stop lying and posting bad information, we would maybe be able to have reasonable analysis.

#LyinAtlas

[RaphaelDLG]

it's a sign that the clinton third-wayism is on its way out, new deal politics back in!

Perhaps, but not yet.  Hillary will be the bridge -the transition- between the old Third Way as represented by her husband (Bill Clinton), Barack Obama, and Tony Blair, and to any future Democratic presidents who follow after who adhere to the 21st century version of New Deal progressivism.  

I think that's right, and how much of a bridge she will be will depend on what people newly active this cycle like the dopes on r/Sanders do after he loses.  Do they stay somewhat politically involved, or do they go back to drinking monster energy drinks, jacking off, and playing world of warcraft?

[RaphaelDLG]

Why does Predictit have Bernie at 90%+ to win Hawaii and Betfair have him at 60?

Is Betfair much less liquid?

[RaphaelDLG]

On Betfair, Predictit, and Predictwise Sanders' chances of winning the nom are climbing from roughly 5% to 9%.  Seems like an overreaction.

[RaphaelDLG]

Name some states where Sanders did better in urban areas than rural ones. 

It seems to me like Hillary is the urban candidate and Sanders is the rural candidate, even in states where Sanders won both areas and Hillary won both areas.

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

[RaphaelDLG]

Wait, did my respectful post that had no profane language in it just get deleted?!?

[RaphaelDLG]

If Sanders runs +60D across today's three states, he'll be 75 delegates under 538's target for him in a 50-50 race.  Doesn't seem like a lot, but there aren't enough contests left for him to narrow that margin by overperforming.

Hillary is also way ahead of her target though. According to 538, he "should" be trailing by about 50 delegates after tonight. Instead he'll be trailing by 230-240.

I must be doing my math horribly wrong, but I calculated that

Sanders after tonight: 1054
Where they say he should be after tonight in 50-50 race: 1130

Clinton after tonight:  1250
Where they say she should be:  1175

Where are you getting the after tonight totals? 538 had him down 296 before tonight.

I meant to have him net 60, running 40 over their expectation of him netting 20, clearly I did it wrong, disregard

[RaphaelDLG]

For the anti-caucus crowd, if you got your way and caucuses were done away with, would you make an exception for Iowa?  There is a lot of tradition there, and they do a good job managing it.

Uh, what?!?  Did you follow them this year?!?

[RaphaelDLG]

Great result none-the-less. NH looks more n more like a bad performance now!

If anything, IA looks like an extremely poor performance now.
It was a heavily-white caucus. Based on current results 65% for Bernie should have been possible.

No candidate would ever get 65% in Iowa. In fact he was supposed to lose by a larger margin than what he actually lost by, and both his and Clinton's ground game was extremely strong. Clinton just barely competed in the other caucus states.

Agree with your first statement, disagree with your second one, agree with your third and fourth.

[RaphaelDLG]

Most pressing question of the night for me:  Who did the Macklecrats in Seattle break for?!?

[RaphaelDLG]

Could Hawaii be any slower?

Patience, cuz.  You need to learn how they do things on the island.