If the Presidential Election Was This Year...

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If the 2004 Presidential Election was this year, Bush would lose.

Does not matter now, what's happened is over and done with.

Either way, Obama would probably still win, facing a real, flawed opponent who would perform worse than the Generic R would, not to mention that while Obama has the Obamacare rollout and a few tiny "scandals", the Republican Party has the government shutdown on its shoulders, still relatively fresh in the public's minds.

Of course it's possible that many of these events would not have happened, maybe the GOP not initiating the shutdown in order to prevent their candidate from sinking with them.

Not to mention the turnout would probably be even more D favorable than last year, with the demographic changes still occurring.

Don't set your expectations too high CCS. 2014 is still a year away, 2016 three. In 1991 Bush was considered undefeatable, and look what happened.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

If the 2004 Presidential Election was this year, Bush would lose.

Does not matter now, what's happened is over and done with.

Either way, Obama would probably still win, facing a real, flawed opponent who would perform worse than the Generic R would, not to mention that while Obama has the Obamacare rollout and a few tiny "scandals", the Republican Party has the government shutdown on its shoulders, still relatively fresh in the public's minds.

Of course it's possible that many of these events would not have happened, maybe the GOP not initiating the shutdown in order to prevent their candidate from sinking with them.

Not to mention the turnout would probably be even more D favorable than last year, with the demographic changes still occurring.

Don't set your expectations too high CCS. 2014 is still a year away, 2016 three. In 1991 Bush was considered undefeatable, and look what happened.

Mitt Romney could easily scold his party for the shutdown. It's pretty easy when you don't have anything to do with your party's Washington insiders.

True, but either way he's put in a rough spot by the shutdown. He either alienates moderates and independents by supporting the shutdown, or he alienates conservatives for opposing it.