Poll: Name the winner in the great Georgia U.S. Senate runoff

[cinyc]

Indeed, I know.  But I'm just saying swing isn't everything.

Swing is everything if you assume a fairly uniform turnout throughout the state.  Nothing so far indicates turnout will be up in Metro Atlanta versus the rest of the state.

How would we even know if turnout has decreased there relatively less?

I can eyeball Cobb and Gwinnett (which are 75-80% in), and see that turnout will be in the 50-65% of November range there.  Chambliss is currently (likely temporarily) ahead of Martin in Fulton, but too little is in to try to guess turnout.  Too little of Dekalb is, too.

[cinyc]

Dekalb (45% in):
Martin 69,743  (69% (-7 from November)
Chambliss 31,185  (31% (+10 from November)
   
Pretty much the same trend versus November as statewide.

If Dekalb trends continue, turnout will be 75% of November.  I doubt they will - I think early votes reported first, and that percentage fell from the last time I eyeballed it.  Even so, it's not good for Martin.

[cinyc]

Anyone know why Obama didn't campaign here?

He didn't want to be seen campaigning for a candidate that probably would lose, I suppose.  Even the DSCC didn't fund Martin much.

Obama cut a radio ad.  

[cinyc]

Fulton (51% in):
Martin 48,601 (51%)
Chambliss 46,601 (49%)

Fulton went 63-33 Martin in November.  Parts of Atlanta must still be out - but this result more or less held up from the last Fulton data dump.

[cinyc]

84% in:
     Candidates    Party    Votes     % of Votes     
     Saxby Chambliss    Republican    1,019,389     59.0%     
     Jim Martin    Democratic    708,816     41.0%     
     Totals    1,728,205     

Half of Fulton and Clayton are still out.  About 17% of Dekalb is also out.

Edit: Straightlining Clayton would give a 37% turnout rate versus November.  Clayton was one of Martin's best counties in November.

[cinyc]

95% in:
Saxby Chambliss       Republican       1,191,123        57.7%       
     Jim Martin    Democratic    872,459     42.3%     
     Totals    2,063,582     

What's out is largely in Fulton, so we're probably looking at a slight narrowing of Chambliss' lead - probably around 57-43 when all is in.

Edit: Turnout in the four big Atlanta metro counties (Cobb, Dekalb, Fulton & Gwinnett) looks like will end up about 60% of November as of right now.

Edit 2: Gwinnett is all in.  Turnout there was 58% of November.

[cinyc]

um... his organizational machine showed no ability to transcend identity politics in all of those lilly-white states?

1) Georgia is not a lily white state.
2) Obama never really built up much of a machine in Georgia.  He moved campaign folks to North Carolina fairly early on.
3) Identity politics played a role in forcing the Georgia runoff.  Had Obama not been on the Democrat ticket, African American turnout would have been lower in November - closer to 2004's purported 25% than 2008's purported 30% - and Chambliss would have won the race outright.  Heck, even a 1 point shift in the African American vote would probably have been enough to avoid the runoff.   
4) Even with historically high African American turnout, Martin couldn't win.   Martin's defeat isn't surprising.