Italy 2013: The official thread

[Diouf]

Does anybody have some more information on Verso la Terza Repubblica? There's not much information on wikipedia or elsewhere, apart from them being centrist and that they want Monti to continue after the election. The party founders include Andrea Riccardi, minister of International Cooperation in Monti's government, and the Ferrari chairman  Luca Cordero di Montezemolo. I can also see that they have polled 4.8 and 8.5 in the two polls made since they started.
I guess that Monti does not need to or want to run as he is senator for life.

Would they want to go in an alliance with Casini and Fini at the election?

Their policies, pro-austerity, pro-europe and pro-higher taxes?

An electoral reform has still not been agreed on, so i guess with the current electoral system we will have a centre-left majority (PD, SEL, IdV?) in the Chamber of Deputies and a massive chaos in Senate.

[Diouf]

Finally some regional polls:

Lombardia: Berlusconi coalition 32,5 %, Bersani coalition 32,5 %, Monti coalition 16,3 %, M5S 11,5 %, Ingroia coalition 5,6 %

Campania: Bersani 30,5 %, Berlusconi 28,5 %, Monti 14,2 %, M5S 13,0 %, Ingroia 11,2 %

Lazio: Bersani 39,5 %, Berlusconi 21,6 %, Monti 16,5 %, M5S 14,0 %, Ingroia 6,6 %

Piemonte: Bersani 37,5 %, Berlusconi 25,1 %, Monti 16,8 %, M5S 12,5 %, Ingroia 7,0 %

Sicilia: Berlusconi 27,0 %, Bersani 22,9 %, M5S 19,8 %, Monti 16,2 %, Ingroia 11,0 %


Very high numbers for Ingroia and the Rivoluzione Civile coalition compared to the national polls

From Ipsos/Sole24Ore: http://www.ilsole24ore.com/pdf2010/SoleOnLine5/_Oggetti_Correlati/Documenti/Notizie/2013/01/previsioni-senato.pdf?uuid=c2b52c90-597e-11e2-bfa2-c338601f7959

[Diouf]

Prediction


Italia. Bene Comune - 32%
Center-right - 29%
M5S - 20%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 12%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4%
Others - 3%


I do believe, however, that the center-right will narrowly win the Senate. As stated earlier, I think turnout will be 75%.

Ah,this is fun,since it is mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate.

I haven't seen that mentioned anywhere. No where at all. Not here, not anywhere in the press. So please try to explain without being a condescending prick (like you have been this entire time). Many thanks.

It's of course not mathematically impossible for Berlusconi to win the Senate, but it will take an enormous swing when looking at the polling. The Centre-right will have to win regions like Lazio, Sardinia, Liguria and Marche. The last polls in those regions showed a lead for the centre-left on 9.5, 10, 10, and 12 % respectively. That is quite a lot of ground to make up.