France 2012: the official thread

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Anecdotal rumours also favour Hollande.

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Uh, the difference between 'estimates' and 'validated' are really crazy.

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The PS site is awful. The map could atleast be coloured or something, come on.

Well yeah, but it's the PS. Everything it touches turns to sh**t.

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51 882 voix
François
Hollande
28 608 voix -
55.77%

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Results apparently rural-heavy, so you know what that means. But Hollande is going to win.

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Yeah, Hollande's gonna be winning big. Won't even be close.

Good riddance to Aubry, really. She was getting on my nerves.

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lol Aubry

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Does Nadine Morono make money or something when she says retarded things? Is she like in a contest with Cope and Jacob for "say the most inane things"?

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I usually find him boring as a sack of potatoes, but Hollande gave a good speech. Nice way to really fire up the party, like Royal had failed to do in 2007 (because she was an arrogant entitled bitch).

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Preliminary map

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Strong Aubry departments which lack a major city:
Landes (Emmanuelli?)
Hautes-Alpes (good Montebourg vote transfers?)
Haute-Loire
Ardeche (though the north is basically Lyon exurbs, though that is favourable to Hollande)
Ain (see above)
Yonne (see above)
Drome (probably Green-effect)
Haute-Marne (imo, the weirdest)

You might say Eure and Somme don't really have a huge city, but they're more urbanized than the above and are close to Aubryist-Fabiusian bases.

Any ideas or explanations?

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CSA, September 19-20 2011
1010 people 18+, of which 859 RVs.

Hollande 35% (+7)
Sarkozy 25% (+1)
Le Pen 16% (-2)
Bayrou 9% (+2)
Melenchon 5% (-1)
Joly 3% (-1)
Villepin 2% (-3)
Boutin 1.5% (+1)
Morin 1%
Arthaud 1% (-0.5)
Poutou 0.5% (=)
Lepage 0.5%
NDA 0.5% (=)

Hollande 62%
Sarko 38%

Other bad stuff for the right:
61% of people say they certainly won't vote for Sarkozy, and his vote potential is 36% to Hollande's 57%
60% of UMP sympathizers want an open primary on the right
50% of righties say the PS comes out the primaries united and strengthened
13% of righties say Hollande is "really left-wing"

Not as awful stuff:
Sarkozy is the favourite of UMP and righties for "best candidate of the right" stuff. But only with 44% and 39% respectively.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csa.eu%2Fmultimedia%2Fdata%2Fsondages%2Fdata2011%2Fopi20111017-le-bilan-des-primaires-socialistes-et-les-intentions-de-vote-pour-l-election-presidentielle-de-2012.pdf

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If anybody thinks Hollande or anybody can win nearly 40% in the first round, I'd like to sell them my beachfront property in Saskatchewan.

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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

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The big news re: legislative elections is the PS-Greenies deal, which is causing quite a stir in both parties thanks to stuff like nuclear energy. Anyways, the Greenies seem to have gotten quite a fair bit of seats and stand a chance at winning in some 10-20 of them. Duflot will be running in a PS-held seat in Paris, which the incumbent doesn't like and which Delanoe and Hidalgo are also pissed off about.

Is there any chance of France ever having PR for parliamentary elections so as to avoid such disputes and infighting in the future? 

The PS-Green deal involves some sort of MMP system for the next elections, with some 20% of seats elected by PR.

Apparently no deal whatsoever between the FG and PS-Greens. All PCF incumbents will have PS and Green opponents.

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Lipietz was originally the candidate until he shot himself by saying something about Corsican independence or something something.

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The awfulness of the candidates here is really something: some indecisive wimp who is boring and predictable, a useless incumbent who associates with Vichyists, a closeted fascist, an egomaniac whose platform is that everybody sucks, a wannabe Marchais who puts on a pathetically fake scene, a useless end-is-nigh douche who sabotaged a party, an incompetent wannabe running for the sake of a personal vendetta, a useless boring hack who takes himself way too seriously, a failed wannabe actor who doesn't understand that nobody wants him to play the General's role and two boring nutjob Trots.

I wonder who I'll vote for. I'll probably make Excel generate a random number or roll a dice.

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Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

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Ugh, Bayrou. Seriously? How dumb can people get?

Especially now that he's turning into some protectionist nutjob. I thought the guy couldn't get anymore pathetic, but thank you Bayrou for definitely proving us you don't believe in anything.

I still think the most amusing is Villepin's leftie turn into some type of ultra-social left-Gaullist ranting about evil capitalism and about how he can't sleep in a country which is so unequal.

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Because the legislative elections are more interesting, here's a primer:

The PS and EELV (and PRG, nobody cares) have signed a sh**tstorm deal which everybody hates. In electoral terms, EELV can hope to win 20 or so seats overall on a good night for the left. The PRG will get its seats and might gain a few others.

Duflot will run in Paris-6, which the PS leadership abandoned to her but the incumbent PS deputy Danièle Hoffman-Rispal threw a hissy fit and is running as a dissident against Duflot, with the quasi-open endorsement of Delanoë-Hidalgo who have been very much against the deal because it gives Duflot a base for her 2014 mayoral candidacy against Hidalgo.

Yves Cochet is now an MEP (for one of those 2 extra seats) so Paris-10, which includes most of his old constituency, is reserved to the Greenies and they've chosen the rather leftie Denis Baupin against the even more crazy leftie Yves Contassot but incumbent PS deputy Serge Blisko might throw a hissy fit as well.

Lots of similar hissy fits in a lot of the constituencies reserved for EELV, where local PS members are opposing the deal.

Ségogo wants to be President of the National Assembly, but she needs a constituency, but can't afford to take her old constituency until 2007 because it would piss off Delphine Batho, her successor, and seemingly the last person who thinks Ségogo is useful for something. So instead she's running in La Rochelle, where it seems they convinced the Segolist incumbent to step down. But a lot of local members aren't keen on her candidacy already... They also considered dumping her in North Africa.

Jack Lang decided to be an ass and refused to run in the normal primary-ish convention for members in his Pas-de-Calais seat, so the PS is likely deciding to drop him somewhere in the Somme. Hamon is running in Yvelines-11 (Trappes)

A sh**tload of cabinet ministers are running, most for reelection. Juppé is getting a rematch in Gironde-2 with Delaunay. The collabo-in-chief Claude Guéant is undecided but would run in Yvelines-3 if he did. Meanwhile, his son is running in Morbihan (Ploermel).

The ultimate sh**tfest is Paris-2, where the ultimate battle is opposing Rachida Dati and François Fillon. Both want to be mayor of Paris in 2014, and both are pretty damn ambitious. Dati is backed Jean-François Copé, who hates Fillon likely because he's running for President in 2017. To add to the craziness, Alain Lambert, the president of the CG of the Orne and master of carpetbagging, is also running after admitting that he in fact lives in Paris. The constituency, which takes in most of the 5, 6 and 7 arrondissements, is safely blue.

The abroad seats are also shaping up interestingly. In Asia-Oceania, very right-wing, Thierry Mariani has been carpetbagged there and is now proceeding to use taxpayer money to fund his "official" trips to China and the like. Marie-Anne Montchamp, whose constituency was eliminated, is running the Benelux against Dodo Paillé, whose new job is to lose elections everywhere.

Meanwhile, in my very own constituency, I have the great luck of having as my UMP candidate... Frédéric Lefebvre! How lucky! He's also facing Julien Balkany, the half-brother of the big boss of the Levallois mafia. On a side note, Harpo is being a retard (again) and Canada is throwing a hissy fit saying that they oppose Canada being included in the constituency of a foreign state

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As long as Antonio doesn't physically harm himself as a result....Sarkozy actually winning would be hillarious

I think at this point I would just give up on partisan politics forever and focus only on data and analysis.

Which is what I've basically done, yeah.

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The PS seems to be morphing ever so slowly into the second incarnation of the RadSocs: a bunch of experienced local notables who dominate local elections but which is not able to win anything of worth nationally. Of course, the RadSocs managed to remain a mainstay of government even then, but circumstances were different.

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Ifop tracker, day 2

Hollade 27% nc
Sarkozy 24% +0.5
MLP 21.5% nc
Bayrou 12.5% -0.5
Melenchon 6.5% nc
Joly 3.5% nc
DVP 1.5% -0.5
Poutou 0.5% nc
Nihous 0.5% +0.5
Morin 0.5% -0.5
JPC 0.5% nc
Arthaud 0.5% nc

Hollande 56.5% -0.5
Sarko 43.5% +0.5

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Perhaps the reason why people don't make a fuss out of it is that the FN has been the largest party with ouvriers in all presidential elections since 1995. Even 2007. So some historical perspective would help, fo 'sho.

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Oh, damn, I actually never knew that Le Penis' first name was actually 'Marion' and not 'Marine'.