2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Smid]

Sorry Smid, I borrowed your key without asking you, but I wanted to do the map while I had time to do it, i.e. before exam weeks which are coming soon.

Great work!

My key? Nah - I don't know how to make one of them (probably could figure it out playing in Paint, or whatever, but haven't done that yet). I made the key by going through the different maps posted in the gallery and saving the colour scheme/keys from them. I have a little file of them I keep in my Elections Folder, which has 12 different colour schemes that I've found, although one of the dark red/maroon ones only has seven shades/boxes. Don't apologise for borrowing from me what I've previously borrowed from others...

[Smid]

Do we have a thread for Canadian demographic maps? BC has a handy spreadsheet of provincial ridings and various demographic details and I was thinking of translating some into maps. I uploaded a % renting into the gallery today and was wondering if we had a thread in which to park it and any others I do in the meantime?

[Smid]

Another thorough analysis!

[Smid]

First of all, welcome to the Forum!

I also agree that taking a look at 1991 is important in this context, but I would say that those seats won by the SoCreds that year might indicate where the Tories will break through first. To that end, I'm skeptical that the Grits will retain as many seats as Teddy predicts in the Fraser Valley, a "bible belt" area where John Cummins's personal qualities, as well as his party brand, should help him win more than just a few seats. I would say Abbotsford West is fairly likely to stay Liberal on the personal appeal of Mike de Jong, whereas the other two Abbotsford ridings are better takeaways for the Tories.

I had a similar opinion, however Abbotsford voted "no" in the HST referendum, so the BC Liberals may not be as out-of-favour in that area as they are in some other parts of the province. I mentioned that back in the HST thread:

Earl, I'd been wondering about BC Conservative potential in those ridings and agree with your conclusions. I realise that last election, they did quite well in the Okanagen, but those ridings voted No, so they may hold their noses and still vote BC Liberal, as did the other area I thought the BC Conservatives could focus their resources - around Abbotsford. Since those ridings also voted against the referendum, it may be hard for them to break into those ridings.

On the other hand, a Conservative sweep of the Okanagan strikes me as unlikely. In particular, George Abbott, if he seeks re-election in Shuswap, should win handily. His wealth of personal popularity was made clear by his very strong showing in the riding when he ran for party leader-- far stronger than any other candidate in their own seat. I also think that one of the three constituencies including parts of Kelowna will most likely stay with the Liberals, but I couldn't tell you which one is the most likely (I just have a hunch on this score). I also wouldn't rule out the NDP in Boundary-Similkameen, which they've held before and came close to winning last time. That's a riding that will depend on the Tory candidate, as another run by Joe Cardoso would very much help his party.

To further your comments on the Okanagan, I heard that Stockwell Day was publicly supporting the BC Liberals. Not sure whether or not it's true.