2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

The Liberal Party of NL is not dead. When the rural outports want change, it's not likely they'll choose the NDP, they'll pick the Liberals.  Newfoundland could very well be a 3 party system in the coming years. But, if the Tories and NDP duke it out in St. John's, that leaves the Liberals in the rest of the province and could yet win again.

I'll respond to this when I have time, but in short, I can prove using history that you are wrong

[Holmes]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

Oh they can, but it's more of a traditional area, much like PEI or most of Cape Breton or New Brunswick. These areas were will be harder to penetrate, but over a generation may be able to win. But, no one will live there in a generation... so..

[MaxQue]

Why can't the NDP compete in rural NL?

Oh they can, but it's more of a traditional area, much like PEI or most of Cape Breton or New Brunswick. These areas were will be harder to penetrate, but over a generation may be able to win. But, no one will live there in a generation... so..

If they succeded to be competitive in Quebec, no reason why they can't penetrate there.

But it will need much work.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is there any indication what's going to happen in the Yukon? Looks like a majority of seats are in Whitehorse now. Is the NDP going to take over as the opposition there?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any indication what's going to happen in the Yukon? Looks like a majority of seats are in Whitehorse now. Is the NDP going to take over as the opposition there?

Maybe, I haven't been following it that much. I do recall there was a poll a few weeks ago with the NDP in 2nd.

[adma]

Yes, Virginia Waters is in St. John's.

Substitute "St. Nicholas" for "St. John's", and that sentence sounds like Christmas;-)

[Хahar 🤔]

There is a precedent for a party going from being in government and even a natural governing party of a province - to being dead in very short order.

True; obviously you've mentioned the most remarkable example, but there's also the Saskatchewan PCs, the SoCreds, the old conservative Liberals in Manitoba and Saskatchewan... to say nothing of the near-death experiences of once-governing NDP's in a couple of provinces. Given the massive historical importance of the Newfie Liberals, this would be up there with the UN, even if the fall won't have been quite as dramatic. If it happens.

And it happens more often in Canada than it does anywhere else.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Not directly related, but Alison Redford won and is the new Premier-designate of Alberta.

[Smid]

Not directly related, but Alison Redford won and is the new Premier-designate of Alberta.

Leading to an exodus of members to Wild Rose... Last week or the week before, Wild Rose received 300 membership applications in a single week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone made maps of the leadership election on Wikipedia.

[Hash]

I gather she was the more moderate candidate?

[adma]

Sorta like: the next Nancy Betkowski.

[Smid]

I read an article last week about how all three candidates were from the moderate wing of the party. I think if she was from any province where the Liberal Party was competitive, she would not have joined the PC Party, although she's run for (and lost) federal endorsement, so I guess she thinks she could fit within Harper's caucus.

EDIT: Here's the article I read last week

[mileslunn]

I read an article last week about how all three candidates were from the moderate wing of the party. I think if she was from any province where the Liberal Party was competitive, she would not have joined the PC Party, although she's run for (and lost) federal endorsement, so I guess she thinks she could fit within Harper's caucus.

Of the three she was probably the most moderate, although Doug Horner was pretty moderate and even was Gary Mar.  I believe all three were supporters of the PCs, not the Reform/Alliance federally during the 90s.  Mind you many of the Reform/Alliance supporters federally probably are supporters of the Wild Rose Alliance.

Another interesting tidbit is if Manitoba re-elects the NDP and Ontario re-elects the Liberals, we may not have any governments changing this fall (PEI, Newfoundland, and Saskatchewan are likely to be easy wins for the incumbnets).  I wonder if uncertainty causes people to stick with what they know rather than vote for change.

[Hatman 🍁]

I read an article last week about how all three candidates were from the moderate wing of the party. I think if she was from any province where the Liberal Party was competitive, she would not have joined the PC Party, although she's run for (and lost) federal endorsement, so I guess she thinks she could fit within Harper's caucus.

Of the three she was probably the most moderate, although Doug Horner was pretty moderate and even was Gary Mar.  I believe all three were supporters of the PCs, not the Reform/Alliance federally during the 90s.  Mind you many of the Reform/Alliance supporters federally probably are supporters of the Wild Rose Alliance.

Another interesting tidbit is if Manitoba re-elects the NDP and Ontario re-elects the Liberals, we may not have any governments changing this fall (PEI, Newfoundland, and Saskatchewan are likely to be easy wins for the incumbnets).  I wonder if uncertainty causes people to stick with what they know rather than vote for change.

Typically it's the opposite. Strong economies in Newfoundland, Manitoba and SK will result in reelected gov'ts. Ontarios economy means more uncertainty in voting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final PEI prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/10/prince-edward-island-2011-election.html

[minionofmidas]

All of these elections on the same date (three days from now)?

[MaxQue]

All of these elections on the same date (three days from now)?

No!

PEI and NWT are today, Manitoba is tomorrow.

[minionofmidas]

All of these elections on the same date (three days from now)?

No!

PEI and NWT are today, Manitoba is tomorrow.

Oh, lol.

[Smid]

For reference, here is the election result for PEI 2007:



It's in the gallery.

Great work on the Alberta leadership maps, Earl!

[Hatman 🍁]

Great work on the Alberta leadership maps, Earl!

Those aren't mine!

[lilTommy]

The NFLD Liberals are very bitter about the polls... they are claiming they were bought and paid for by the tories?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nlvotes2011/story/2011/10/03/nl-liberals-slam-poll-103.html

This is quite childish by the liberals... you never hear the NDP in PEI saying things like that? Perhaps your party (liberals) just aren't clicking with the people out there? not believing there is a problem might be part of it

[Smid]

Great work on the Alberta leadership maps, Earl!

Those aren't mine!

Oh, sorry, I'd looked at them and thought they were pretty good and were yours. I should have realised you'd have also uploaded onto your site.

[mileslunn]

PEI results are now trickling in.  The Liberals ahead, but the Tories doing better than most polls suggested, although its early going, so I wouldn't read too much into the number now.