LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[moderatevoter]

http://www.witn.com/news/politics/headlines/Hagan-To-Get-Rival-In-Democratic-Primary-In-North-Carolina-241570091.html

[moderatevoter]

Yeah, I don't think this gets far or anything, I just saw this in the news and figured I'd add it to the thread.

[moderatevoter]

Miles: Was that the debate where Landrieu snapped that it would be Terrell's last campaign?

Wait, what?

[moderatevoter]

AFP dropping $1.4 million in NC-Sen.

Do you guys think Hagan should start using some of her $7 million to at least air some ads to combat this?

PPP will be polling these two states next

Exciting! When will the poll results be released?

[moderatevoter]

http://politi.co/1lCcwQe

[moderatevoter]

Well, this isn't exactly good PR:

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Ouch. Brannon was found guilty of misleading investors.

This could potentially derail his candidacy. Some are questioning if he should even file to run.

That would be nice. He sounds crazy and not electable in NC.

[moderatevoter]

What about Alexander? Why is he polling so well.

[moderatevoter]

Brannon is crazy.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/why-did-a-republican-senate-candidates-controversial-website

[moderatevoter]

Hagan raises $2.8 million in Q1. Damn.

http://atr.rollcall.com/kay-hagan-raised-2-8-million-for-re-election-in-2014/

[moderatevoter]

It doesn't surprise me, since Hagan is a weaker opponent. Pryor/Landrieu have family legacy, and therefore have their own personal brand of sorts. Hagan is basically a Generic D, who is fairly unknown. That is precisely why I think AFP went after her in the first place. She was the easiest to define, and so they were able to drive her unfavorables up. If the GOP had a relatively strong opponent (McCrory, had he passed up on Governor for example), I think Hagan would be toast by now, whereas Pryor and Landrieu still have a fighting chance.

[moderatevoter]

Right, but I feel like at the moment she's polling at the floor for Democrats in North Carolina. Pryor and Landrieu are obviously outperforming the floor for Democrats in Arkansas and Louisiana respectively, and their personal brand is clearly a factor there.

It doesn't surprise me, since Hagan is a weaker opponent. Pryor/Landrieu have family legacy, and therefore have their own personal brand of sorts. Hagan is basically a Generic D, who is fairly unknown. That is precisely why I think AFP went after her in the first place. She was the easiest to define, and so they were able to drive her unfavorables up. If the GOP had a relatively strong opponent (McCrory, had he passed up on Governor for example), I think Hagan would be toast by now, whereas Pryor and Landrieu still have a fighting chance.

Yeah, that's a good point. At the moment, I wonder if the relative anonymity of the GOP field is actually HELPING them in the polls by positioning them as "generic R". It would explain why Hagan seems to consistently trail them. Although Hagan's approvals are pretty bad, she definitely fits the state better than some right wing Tea Party activist or a SoCon pastor.

Oh yes. This is why the Brannon-Hagan matchup is misleading. Brannon is polling as Generic R at the moment, but the second people hear about some of the comments he's made, he's going to drop. This is why I think this race will move between Lean/Likely D with Brannon as the nominee. Hagan may not be liked, but politics is a game of simply beating your opponent, and people will likely opt for someone relatively bland than a crazy lunatic like Brannon. Brannon supporters point to the polls, which DO currently show him as "more electable" than Tillis, but in reality, that is just because he's fairly unknown. That is why I think the GOP needs Tillis to be the nominee, because frankly, his liabilities are fairly well known, so I don't think he'd have a significant drop as more people find out about him.

[moderatevoter]

Nah, that's also true, but I view Tillis as less likely to pull a Todd Akin. That's mainly what I was referring to.

[moderatevoter]

Not really surprising, but Tillis gets an endorsement from the Chamber of Commerce.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline-on-call/chamber-to-back-tillis-in-gop-primary-20140407

[moderatevoter]

This poll seems to have a large amount of 2012 non-voters, and those who voted seemed to favor Obama. I think Hagan-Tillis being 42-40 sounds plausible, but her approval looks too high, disapproval too low. Landrieu's 42 actually seems okay, but it's irrelevant if they didn't poll the run-off.

[moderatevoter]

The numbers in NC and LA seem about right, but AR, I do not see Pryor up by 10. Around 2-3 would make sense, but not 10.

[moderatevoter]

I just knew Krazen would be making an appearance this morning.

[moderatevoter]

New poll on LA-Sen

(Miles, I am finally linking URLs properly )

Not sure how reputable the pollster is, but saw this floating around today.

[moderatevoter]

Apparently Hagan underperformed in Conserva-Dem counties against an OWS-type guy who's pro-immigration reform, pro-marijuana, and anti-NSA.  Any explanation to that, Miles?

From what I've heard, both of her opponents were entirely anonymous. So maybe it was just a matter of checking off a name that wasn't Hagan's? Miles can shed more light on this, but that's what I thought it was.

[moderatevoter]

I'd lean towards sleazy, but that doesn't mean it can't be a bit of both.

[moderatevoter]

Is this $844K in addition to the ~$600K we heard about last week? Or is it instead of?

[moderatevoter]

Way too early to tell.

DSCC had Arkansas at Pryor +3. I think his lead is around there right now. But the rest of the undecideds should lean for Cotton. I always have maintained (even when people here claimed Pryor was Lincoln 2.0), that Pryor would be tougher to oust. But I still think he goes down in the end by a slim margin.

I think it's ridiculous to think the Libertarian will get 11% in November. Like Miles said, the poll reminded me a lot of the one that had Burr up by 2 in Summer 2010. While Tillis is hardly a perfect nominee, she is the most "Generic" of the four incumbents in Romney states. Whereas Landrieu, Pryor, and Begich can significantly over-perform Obama in their states, but Hagan isn't much as strong. Whereas the national environment has improved some for Democrats, Hagan's numbers have been stuck at the same place since October. She's in trouble, but she's certainly not out.

I never actually thought Land was going to beat Peters in Michigan. Gardner is certainly more formidable than Buck, but he needs the environment to worsen a little bit.

I think it's just very early to tell. The picture will become clearer in August, September, and beyond.

[moderatevoter]

Tillis's fundraising is underwhelming, though I suppose there are a few logical reasons. At the same time, I'm don't think it'll matter too much in the end, considering how active outside groups are in this race.

[moderatevoter]

People who are acting like this is a bad thing obviously don't know how tailigating at LSU works.

Now if only we could get Feinstein or Boxer down to a USC tailgate...

Can we please get a picture of this? That would be hilarious.

[moderatevoter]

So I have no idea who this guy is, but judging from your post, Miles, it seems he's from Louisiana. Why exactly is he in ads in North Carolina?

[moderatevoter]

Udall --> Gardner
Rockefeller --> Capito
Johnson --> Rounds
Harkin --> Ernst

Assuming the other Democrats hold, then the GOP should be able to get 63 next Congress.

Bennet voted yes. That surprised me.