Does Huckabee have a chance in any of these places?

[Old Man Willow]

Just bored.

[Lief 🗽]

You forgot NOTA.

[WalterMitty]

You forgot NOTA.

and nova!

[TeePee4Prez]

AZ and an outside one at best.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Arizona, and only Arizona.

[Horus]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona only because it is likely to be +4 R (others are +4 D or higher). Huckabee has no particular reason to have any particular appeal in Arizona, which is more like Colorado than like any of the Southeastern states. Other states can go to him only if Obama has a catastrophically-bad Presidency, and that is a high-risk gamble for the GOP (not to mention America on the whole).

As a southern right-winger Huckabee has no reasonable chance to win any State in the Blue Firewall in 2012. Although the number of electoral votes from states that haven't voted for a Republican nominee since 1988 will be down to about 240 through reapportionment of House seats after the 2010 Census, such is still 90% of the level of electoral vote necessary for a Democratic win. Huckabee has no particular affinity for IA, NH, or NM, either. 

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

Obama is less likely to win Indiana or North Carolina than Arizona the next time around.

[Rob]

Arizona, in the absence of "none of the above." It'd be funny to see his collapse in metro Phoenix.

[Rowan]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

How about favorite son Gore in Tennessee?

[Old Man Willow]

Didn't Gore lead in Tennesse for most of the campaign? We have no polling information for that election here beyond who was ahead.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

How about favorite son Gore in Tennessee?

We saw in 2004 and 2008 how well a non-favorite son Democrat performed there.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

How about favorite son Gore in Tennessee?

Tennessee used to be safe for a Democrat; now it is safe for a Republican. White people with low incomes are the only growing constituency for the GOP, at least as of November 2008, and Southern states have lots of them. They used to be New Deal Democrats.. 

[Lief 🗽]

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

How about favorite son Gore in Tennessee?

About an 8 point trend between 2000 and 2004, and Gore hadn't been the state's Senator for 8 years.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Arizona due to the lack of a NOTA option. I do not seriously believe that he has a shot at Arizona.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I agree with everyone, Arizona and even that will be a longshot for him. Simply put, the influx of Latinos is making the state bluer and there aren't many social conservatives in Arizona that would propel him to a victory here, and even in a good year for Republicans I still don't see him carrying any of the other states mentioned with the exception of Pennsylvania and that's a big "if."

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Primary or general?

[Lunar]

Huckabee, because he seems to be unwilling to compromise on the issues for political gain, has no chance at any of those states without Obama being crazy unpopular, but we'll see.

Arizona, and even that is not likely.

Obama could pick up Arizona in 2012 without making any progress. Reason: John McCain won it with a margin smaller than the usual difference that a Favorite Son makes. States most similar politically to Arizona are Colorado and Nevada. Without that edge the GOP loses Arizona.

How about favorite son Gore in Tennessee?

About an 8 point trend between 2000 and 2004, and Gore hadn't been the state's Senator for 8 years.

This is correct.  Gore liberalized since his promotion from Senator too, no?  He was not "Senator Gore from Tennessee" running for president, he was "Vice President Gore," that makes a big diff.  And, as difficult it is for people on this forum to realize, sometimes campaigns matter.

I mean, hell, Mitt Romney wouldn't have a remote chance to win in MA, but that doesn't mean McCain did't strongly overperform in the state.

[Zarn]

He has no chance in WI, NJ, NH and perhaps Arizona are a little too err... Catholic for Huckabee. He would almost certainly lose PA, which could also be offset by a poor Obama presidency combined with a great ground game.

The others are too anti-social conservative.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Minnesota- no         
Arizona- most likely, but still no         
Oregon- absolutely not          
New Hampshire- no         
New Jersey- why is this even on here?         
Pennsylvania- no         
Maine- no chance         
Wisconsin- no     
Washington- this shouldn't be on the list!    
Michigan- no.

In all fairness, you'd need to add more republican states besides Arizona to get even close to a yes.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota         Only if Hubert Humphrey becomes a political villain here.
Arizona                 Best chance, but still slight
Oregon                 East of the Cascades, where the people aren't
New Hampshire    He won't buck the Dem trend here
New Jersey         Will take miracles or disasters, depending on taste
Pennsylvania         Only in rural areas, which will be far from enough
Maine                 No affinity and no victory
Wisconsin         Only if Joseph R. McCarthy becomes popular again.
Washington         Same as Oregon
Michigan                 Only if Obama insists on a Mercedes-Benz as a Presidential limousine

[Old Man Willow]

Minnesota- no         
Arizona- most likely, but still no         
Oregon- absolutely not          
New Hampshire- no         
New Jersey- why is this even on here?         
Pennsylvania- no         
Maine- no chance         
Wisconsin- no     
Washington- this shouldn't be on the list!    
Michigan- no.

In all fairness, you'd need to add more republican states besides Arizona to get even close to a yes.

I was just putting out random states, I wasn't really going for close ones.

[Zarn]

New Jersey would have been more appropriate for someone who is less socially conservative. Same goes with New Hampshire, Maine, Wisconsin, and even Arizona (he is just too authoritarian/populist for them).

[pbrower2a]

How about a different set of states:

Indiana
Virginia
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
North Carolina
Missouri
Florida
Ohio
Georgia