German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[WMS]

Sounds like a good explanation to a very surprising development.
Schröder generally acts best, when he's under pressure...

I think he will try to make it a personality contest:
Schröder/Fischer vs. "GWB buddy" Merkel/"Political lightweight" Westerwelle (FDP chairman)

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time. Whether it will work this time...

[WMS]

I fully expect the parties of the left to engage in anti-Americanism during the campaign like they did last time.

No, not really. Not unless Bush decides to bomb Iran within the next four months or something like this.

I don't think that's going to happen - NW Pakistan intervention is more likely than that - but the year isn't over yet, so who knows?

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What? You aren't going to send troops to Luxembourg? How disappointing...

And BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO to the PDS & WASG!

[WMS]

PDS/WASG: 56 (+54)

Bloody hell

What Al said. I loathe the PDS...bloody ex-East German Communists...

[WMS]

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

So, how many days are left until election day? Maybe Bush can squeeze in a round of bombing before then. You could always ask him...
Tongue firmly in cheek here ;-)

[WMS]

While its great to see a popular magazine other than the Economist mention European politics, I was dissapointed with the article. It seemed to be trying to paint Merkel as an American lackey...

That´s what many Germans are probably thinking too.   But as I said earlier in this thread... this won´t exactly be a problem for her unless Bush decides to bomb Iran or North Korea between now and election day.

So, how many days are left until election day? Maybe Bush can squeeze in a round of bombing before then. You could always ask him...
Tongue firmly in cheek here ;-)

In theory, 80 days from now.

Plenty of time.

[WMS]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What Al said, since I like both the CDU and the SPD, at least in part.

[WMS]

I m still wondering whether the PDS is highly overrated or highly underrated in the polls. They re totally unpredictable for me.

*please be the first, please be the first*

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

What Al said, since I like both the CDU and the SPD, at least in part.

In that case, you should actually rejoice at the PDS strength - as it means you'll likely get a Grand Coalition of the two of them.

Support for the CDU is slipping in the polls, while that for the PDS is rising. This is not (or mostly not) caused by people drifting from the CDU to the PDS though. Voters are simply making up their minds. The CDU isn't gaining any new voters. The PDS is gaining lots and lots, while SPD, Greens and FDP are only gaining small numbers. A third remains undecided. CDU & FDP are still polling at more than SPD & Greens & PDS, but it's looking more and more like it once again won't be enough.
   
Current polls...
CDU 43
FDP 7 (together, these two have lost 5 points in as many weeks)
SPD 27
Greens 8
PDS 11       
other 4

61% say, yep, a change of government would do Germany good.
64% say they expect the elections to result in a CDU-FDP government. (I'm not agreeing anymore, although of course it might still happen.)
If we'd have direct presidential elections, 47% would vote for Schröder, 37% for Merkel, the remainder for none of these.
Asking who was better for what got some interesting result, as well as clear gains for Schröder over one month ago.
Who'd be better for "the economy" Merkel 52 - Schröder 26
For creating employment Merkel 38 - Schröder 27 (notice the large none of these, or no difference vote.)
Who'd be better to solve the country's problems at large Merkel 30 - Schröder 20 (yeah, even higher. Apathy Rules!)
Who's better for foreign policy - Schröder 59 - Merkel 24

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany), I'd be willing to have the PDS do well enough to force a Grand Coalition. Otherwise, I might as well back a CDU-FDP alliance.

[WMS]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

[WMS]

If the CDU were clearly dominant, especially on foreign policy (traditionally the CDU has been the most friendly to the U.S., although that last poll question on 'Who's better for foreign policy' makes me go about Germany)

Well it's not like Schroeder or most Germans are really anti-American in foreign policy, just anti-Bush, so they think whoever is more unfriendly to Bush is better, and I agree. If Kerry were in office now, things would probably be much better, although Schroeder still be ahead.

Eh, I'm not sure about that first sentence. Breaking a 50+ year alliance with the strongest power on the planet to coddle with the likes of Chirac and Putin doesn't exactly strike me as wise foreign policy.

like I said, it's all Bush, nothing more.

Then they need to stop personalizing their policy so much. It was one thing not to agree with the Iraq War, it was another to take a large role in actively trying to thwart the U.S. (instead of standing aside in neutrality)...

[WMS]

There's more to that 59-24 score than just being pro or anti American.
For one thing, people tend to trust incumbents more than bloody rookies on foreign policy, and they're quite right to. Kohl had better ratings on foreign policy than on anything domestic in 1998.
For another thing, the CDU is sending very much mixed messages in the field, and nobody knows where Angela Merkel really stands, or whether she herself knows where she stands.

There is?

I believe the question isn't so much where Merkel stands, it's where she stands in relation to the rest of the CDU...

[WMS]

PDS beating FDP, hell yeah!

Chances of the CDU/CSU not being in the next government (either with the FDP or the SPD): approximately 0. I can't lose.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

[WMS]

You can tell there's an election soon in Germany when...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4149090.stm

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

I believe Lincoln was right, but better check the weather forecast for Eastern Germany

Election time is getting closer...should be fun to follow.

Merkel has now ruled out an military option too. I think she said literally, that there´s no difference between her and Schröder´s stance on the issue.

Politically, this was perhaps the best move, because it doesn´t give Schröder the opportunity to attack Merkel on Iran anymore. The question is if the voters will believe her.

Clever. Seriously, the U.S. isn't expecting Germany to help with any military operations whatsoever, so why this is even an issue over there is beyond me.

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

[WMS]

Oh, yes, that.

Didn't hurt the U.K's German MP (Gisela Stuart, Lab, Brum Edgbaston)... and that wasn't just percieved support

Well, that's the U.K. after all.

[WMS]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

I'll just blame knee-jerk anti-Americanism as usual.

[WMS]

Because to be perceived as a Bush supporter kills your electoral prospects at once and for all times.

Oh, yes, that.

Yes, that one. Considering how extremely close the 2002 election here was, it isn´t too far-fetched to assume that Stoiber could have actually won... had Al Gore (and not Bush) been in the White House!

You may blame the East Germans, you may blame North Rhine-Westphalia... or you simply may blame Florida.

I'll just blame knee-jerk anti-Americanism as usual.

I´m not sure. That´s perhaps a too simple explanation, considering the ongoing rockstar-like popularity Bill Clinton has here, which is sometimes even beyond my comprehension. But I assume that Clinton is seen as a symbol for the "good old times" (before Bush), when the USA were still "cool". In a way this leads to an excessive idealization and glorification of Clinton in Germany, which makes him better than he actually was/is. Just my little theory.

That sounds about right regarding Clinton. "Yay, an American without any of that pesky non-European 'morality' stuff! We love him!"

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Maybe, maybe not. Some from column A, some from column B. That whole despisement bit is insane from my perspective - I may disagree with Bush a fair amount (especially on economic policy) but I don't hate the guy. My insanity theory does tend to be bolstered by the fact that Germany (and France, Russia, Belgium, Luxembourg, Greece, and so forth) went to such lengths to defend a regime as despicable as Saddam Hussein's. It's one thing to not go along with the Americans; it's another to work to actively block the United States. Of course, to take a cheap shot, given the number of secret economic development contracts Saddam's regime signed with German (and French, Russian, etc.) companies [to take place once they had all gotten those pesky sanctions out of the way], I'm not surprised Germany (and France, Russia, etc.) got so upset once those wacky Americans came and ruined everything.

[WMS]

"Went to such lengths"...look at your own camp, mister.

Are you referring to previous support for Saddam by the U.S. (realpolitique mixed with economic BS - and it was Republicans anyway so I can be critical without being hypocritical ), or something else? Yes, the Bush Admin very much wanted to take out Saddam's regime, for various reasons (geopolitical location to pressure Iraq's neighbors to act vs. Al Qaida - the most successful goal; show of strength in the Arab World - only partially successful due to spectacular blunders in postwar planning; WMD - great intel job by everyone, foreign and domestic agencies alike ; moral/humanitarian - yes, they really did despise Saddam's regime and wanted to end it, but this was not the primary reason [see geopolitical location above], somewhat successful; err, maybe the oil, although there were much easier ways to get the oil than this). It turned into a giant geopolitical game between the U.S. and its opponents - there was no way that Russia, China, France, Germany, and the other hostiles would ever sign on to this no matter how many UN resolutions were passed, since their goal was to deliver a defeat to U.S. power no matter what the consequences. Thus everyone pretended to try to work out an impossible deal.

And my snarky point on a larger scale is that I find it highly hypocritical for many anti-war countries to use moral arguments against U.S. intervention in Iraq, because between the supercorrupt oil-for-food program and Saddam's secret economic deals it's quite clear that morality had very little to do with opposing the U.S. Now, individual anti-war people may have moral reasons for opposing this, but the big players didn't.

[WMS]

"Went to such lengths"...look at your own camp, mister.

Are you referring to previous support for Saddam by the U.S. (realpolitique mixed with economic BS - and it was Republicans anyway so I can be critical without being hypocritical ), or something else? Yes, the Bush Admin very much wanted to take out Saddam's regime, for various reasons (geopolitical location to pressure Iraq's neighbors to act vs. Al Qaida - the most successful goal; show of strength in the Arab World - only partially successful due to spectacular blunders in postwar planning; WMD - great intel job by everyone, foreign and domestic agencies alike ; moral/humanitarian - yes, they really did despise Saddam's regime and wanted to end it, but this was not the primary reason [see geopolitical location above], somewhat successful; err, maybe the oil, although there were much easier ways to get the oil than this). It turned into a giant geopolitical game between the U.S. and its opponents - there was no way that Russia, China, France, Germany, and the other hostiles would ever sign on to this no matter how many UN resolutions were passed, since their goal was to deliver a defeat to U.S. power no matter what the consequences. Thus everyone pretended to try to work out an impossible deal.

This, while written from a pretty partisan point of view, is not wrong at all. Well, some bits are.

Well, I am an American nationalist...

And I'm going off of information I've run across over the past few years. This explanation seemed pretty realist to me...so what parts do you disagree with? THREAD HIJACK WARNING!

[WMS]

Supreme court deciding thursday. "Sources" said (about a week ago) to expect a 6-2 or maybe 5-2-1 abstention ruling in favor of new elections. But I'd just like to see the look on everybody's face if there's no new elections.

If there's no new elections, the look on my face will be:

[WMS]

Supreme court deciding thursday. "Sources" said (about a week ago) to expect a 6-2 or maybe 5-2-1 abstention ruling in favor of new elections. But I'd just like to see the look on everybody's face if there's no new elections.

If there's no new elections, the look on my face will be:

7-1 verdict for fresh elections.

Yay! There's still an election to follow!

[WMS]

Well, let's see...

the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the SPD,

the FDP has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens,

the SPD and the Greens have ruled out a coalition with the Left Party,

the Left Party has ruled out a coalition with the SPD and the Greens.
 

So, in the case that CDU/CSU and FDP won't have a majority this sunday anarchy will either become our new official form of government or someone will have to break his/her promise concerning possible coalitions in order to maintain a working government. So, who's gonna be the "liar"?

You forgot the one possible combination not ruled out above...

...CDU/CSU + FDP + Left Party...
*ducks*

[WMS]

What. A. Bloody. Mess.

First of all, What the hell is wrong with East Germany?! High vote totals for the atrocious Left Party (everything I don't like about the left, rolled up into one) and the best margins for the equally vile NPD (no comments necessary). Ugh! Ugh! Ugh! Berlin sucks majorly!

I personally wouldn't mind a grand coalition, although I am wondering what the FDP and Greens will do. Oh, I never thought anyone would make the Greens look good, but the Left Party managed to pull that off. Damn Schroeder and his clever campaigning...and if there's any type of government with minority backing by the Left Party, I will personally lose all respect for the German government. Not to mention relations between Germany and the U.S. would move into Chavez territory...

Or how about CDU and CSU splitting ways, as in an SPD-Greens-CSU coalition?

Well, Lewis, is that an actual possibility?

Well, to put it the other way...

CDU/CSU: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the FDP.

FDP: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the CDU/CSU.

SPD: Ruled out a coalition with no party, except for the Left.PDS. However, all coalitions other than with the Greens (CDU/CSU, FDP, and even Left Party) remain controversial within the party, with supporters and opponents for each option.

Greens: Ruled out a coalition with any party, except for the SPD.

Left Party: Ruled out a coalition with really any party, no exceptions.

I take it this is all still accurate, or has the lower-than-expected vote totals for the CDU/CSU scrambled this?

Well, I'm very surprised and very disappointed

Pretty much the same. The Left Party vote really ticks me off...

A stable one, working within a month...
Any coalition without Gerhard Schröder!

Among the realistic choices I would prefer a grand coalition. A "Jamaica coalition" would be interesting, but I simply cannot imagine CSU and Greens in the same government (not to speak of FDP-Greens conflicts and issues like nuclear power, Turkey, economic reforms etc.).

Why the CSU scrap with the Greens as opposed to the CDU?
But I agree with you.

[WMS]

Loooong story. And I don't have the three or four hours necessary to explain it right now in full length... the whole deep-rooted cultural differences between West and East Germans and the strategy of the PDS (now Left Party) of positioning itself as the "only" party which represents the interests of the East Germans towards the "arrogant" West Germans etc.

I'd known there was a big split between East and West Germans, but I never realized the Easterners were so fond of extremists...

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Well, that's murky enough. So, SDP = Red, CDU/CSU = Black, FDP = Yellow, Green = duh, Green? What's the Left Party, a shade of red too red to be seen with the naked eye?

What odds do you give to the various coalitions?

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Ah, got it. Well, won't this be entertaining...

[WMS]

but I never realized the Easterners were so fond of extremists...

A lot of it is protest voting (the unemployment figures for the former East Germany are truely scary)... the extreme and Neo-Nazi Right have done quite well to very well in some state elections over the past 10 years or so.

This many years out since reunification? Geez, I take it the plan to bring up the East German economy hasn't worked too well.