At this point, I'd put a lot less stock in Nate's numbers than I would've several months ago. His model is likely to be "right" if the turnout numbers are where the aggregate of all the polls place them. His model's problem is it doesn't know anything about the early voting data that's coming in. Meaning that if the early voting partisan turnout numbers (and the resultant overall partisan turnout numbers) are different than what the aggregate of the polls predicted, his model will be "wrong". I'm not at all sure whether that will be the case, but that's an extremely important factor that he's counting on polling companies to be correct about. Now polling companies could be adjusting their turnout projections based off early voting numbers, but they also might not be, especially the less savvy ones.
All in all, I'm much more worried that the pollsters are overestimating Obama's turnout than Romney's, if only because their main data point will be the crazy turnout in 2008.
Was there crazy turnout in 2008 besides Black voters? What evidence is there of that?
I think Republicans think there are more of them in the country than there actually are. Democrats do have a turnout problem in some elections, which causes this perception. The fact of the matter is that if all registered voters were forced to vote, Obama would win easily with perhaps a margin close to 2008. Polls are already taking into account that a lot of soft Obama supporters will likely not show up to the polls. This is why national numbers are around even and even the state polls don't point to a race more favorable than D+2-3. Lower turnout for Democratic groups are already baked into the polls. I actually would argue Hispanics and Asians are being under sampled by the polls currently.
I vehemently disagree that there was historic turnout amongst the youth and Hispanics in 2008. You really have to show me some evidence to convince me otherwise. I am looking at the exit poll numbers and for the youth it only increased from 17 to 18% in 2008 from 2004. Maybe it goes down to 17% this year, but the main thing to watch will be the margin of victory. For Hispanics and Asians, their share of the vote barely went up in 2008 even though they are the fastest growing groups in America. This does not lead one to believe there was historic turnout amongst them. Looking at the Democratic primary results and how those groups voted, this should make sense.
