German Elections & Politics

[jaichind]

Assuming that AfD does not collapse over the next couple of election cycles (like the Pirates did) and FDP gets across the 5% mark it seems that most reasonable future projections of election results over the next couple of elections will always end up with CDU/CSU-SPD grand alliance.  Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

[jaichind]

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?

[jaichind]

Latest Saxony-Anhalt poll by Infratest dimap

CDU   32
SPD   18
Linke  20
Green  5
FDP     4
AfD    17

What a surge by AfD.  I guess it took over the NPD vote and clawed support from across the board.

[jaichind]

Wow. The rise of AfD is such so in 2 out of the 3 states even the CDU-SPD grand alliance will not have a majority.

[jaichind]

When does polls close ?  I assume 5PM Berlin time ?

6pm.

Thanks.  I just saw the same info earlier in the thread.

[jaichind]

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?

[jaichind]

Any links to results?

[jaichind]

So no majority for Green-SPD in BW and o majority for CDU-SPD in SA.   In BW I guess it can be CDU-SPD-FDP  but not sure SPD will go for that.  In SA it will have to be CDU-SPD-FDP or CDU-SPD-Green.

[jaichind]

It is pretty funny now that even CDU-SPD grand alliance can no longer get to a majority in many states.  One literally will have to get CDU-SDP-FDP grand alliance to get a majority.  And think before the 1980s these 3 parties together pretty much had 100% of the seats out there. 

[jaichind]

In SA I assume there might be some overhang seats for CDU.

[jaichind]

Merkel is finished. According to this results i see the CDU/CSU at ca. 30%
nationwide.

Yes,  but is this not an even worse news for the center-left.  The Center-left vote share dropped across the board, losing them to AfD of course.

[jaichind]

In the new ARD projection for BW, the AfD just went from 12.5 to 13.1

... and now above the SPD.

Wow.  SPD in 4th place in two states.  I thought I never see the day.

[jaichind]

FDP and Greens in ST right on 5%.

If both does not make it then CDU-SPD will have a majority.

[jaichind]

Haha: Julia Klöckner (CDU, Rheinland-Pfaltz): "one of our two goals, becoming the largest party, has not been reached, but the other one, making Red-Green lose its majority, has been reached".

This is in spite of, not because of the CDU's result...

Yes, the root cause of both is the same: AfD.

[jaichind]

Gov. Kretschmann had a huge pull-effect in BW.

Half of today's Green voters only voted Green because of Kretschmann.

I am surprised the Green vote held up so well.  Many Green voters can legitimately claim that  Kretschmann is Green-in-name-only.

[jaichind]

The result in SA is ultra-bad news for Linke where AfD might end up displacing it as the main protest party, especially in its Eastern Germany base.

[jaichind]

The result in SA is ultra-bad news for Linke where AfD might end up displacing it as the main protest party, especially in its Eastern Germany base.

There are also indicators that many former Left voters voted AfD today ...

It seems to me that AfD can only get such a result today in SA only if a bunch of Linke voters swung over to AfD, especially with NPD at 3% itself.

[jaichind]

Is there a link to the results in English somewhere???

You should be able to figure this out, I guess.

Yeah,  google translate should handle the rest.

[jaichind]

Oh no.  FDP is now projected to be right below 5% at SA.

[jaichind]

What did the exit polls have for RLP in terms of vote transfers.  On paper it seems like Green->AfD but that seems unlikely and it is much more likely it was Green->SPD and SPD->AfD.

[jaichind]

LOL. Take a look at Pforzheim...

http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article153152717/Ergebnisse-aller-Wahlkreise-in-Baden-Wuerttemberg.html

Does not Pforzheim have an unusual number of unemployed and refugees? Seems like a good combination for the AfD vote.

[jaichind]

I suppose the exit polls may have fallen victim to a "shy AfD" effect.

Definitely.

Which is funny, because in Austria's state elections last year the "exit polls" overestimated the FPÖ by about 5% in Vienna and 2% in Upper Austria.

Looking at the exit polls and the projected results it seems that the "Shy AfD" voter is someone that tells the exit pollster that he/she will vote CDU but really voted for AfD.

[jaichind]

I think ALFA contested by was down there at around 1%

[jaichind]

I wonder if these results will make Frauke Petry more well known outside of Germany at the level of how well Marine Le Pen is known outside France.

[jaichind]

In BaWü, both Greens+CDU and Greens+SPD+FDP have a majority. Might be good for the CDU to stay out of govt for a while and let the Greens and the SPD include the FDP.

CDU-SPD-FDP will also work too.  In fact I think this what FDP prefers.