MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[The_Doctor]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

[The_Doctor]

Please be reminded that special elections do not mean much for 2018.

But the swing can tell us a lot, if you average them.

yea, but it's one thing to swing and come close, and another thing to outright win shocking races like ma 2010.

That's true enough. Well, did we have an idea in the averages in 2009 - 2010 specials? MA was definitely a good harbinger of 2010 with the GOP victory.

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

[The_Doctor]

Ultimately the big takeaway from Montana, does it really challenge the emerging narrative about 2018? I feel it reinforced it.

The way I see it is, if the Republican significantly under-performs compared to past races, then it could still mean bad things for the GOP next year. The win/lose margin is really what is important here, not whether or not Quist were to barely eek a win out.

As 538 said, special elections alone don't really give a good forecast of the midterms, but taken as a group they do an alright job of that. So far, as a group, it looks like the GOP is under-performing a lot in places they shouldn't.

That's my point, yes. The emerging narrative right now looks like a strong D 2018.

But is it strong enough to take back the House? Hmmm

My gut says no, thanks to polarization.