Very early House 2018 rating

[jamestroll]

Using the same principle that I used in my Senate projections, I will not count out any incumbent right now. Lean R. But that can change quickly.

I would like to note a few things.

1) Less than two months ago, I was being told that the Democrats have an electoral college lock and the GOP has a lock on midterms forever. Until the end of time pretty much. This was all based on results from 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014. In hindsight, that was a a stupid statement.

2) Many of the arguments I am hearing against the Democrats taking the House in 2018 exactly mirror the arguments against it in 2006. Literally word for word.

3) Yes, gerrymandering is an issue. But by 2018, it would have been nearly eight years since the lines were redrawn. Voting patterns have shifted, people have moved, people have died, people have become voting age.

4) Gerrymandering can also blow up. In 2006, the gop gerrymander spread out Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, with along with the anti GOP mood that year, allowed the Democrats to pick up multiple seats in Pennsylvania. If Trump is bad enough, the same thing can happen in multiple states in 2018.
also.

5) If Trump is unpopular and there is a anti Republican climate, it would be possible to unite old and new coalitions. For instance, the last Democratic wave midterm, Democrats were able to do well in the upper south. Sure, it may have been a last hurrah, but it helped in that election.

6) With all that being said, midterms do not always go against the White House party. But I think the most neutral early prediction would be GOP +5 Senate and DEM +10 House. 

[jamestroll]

Likely R, but closer to Lean than Safe. It'll be hard to overturn such a map for the Democrats (I think the gerrymanders for this cycle are harder than 2001-2010), but Trump may well be unpopular enough for it to happen, and there are enough Clinton-voting districts that might be flippable in a wave. Jimmie has some good points.

Thank you!

Like I said, it has been two additional years since lines were drawn (2018 vs 2006), and in an anti-gop year, Democrats may be able to exploit old and new coalitions. We have a bunch of normally GOP districts that voted for Clinton, and many districts that had Democrats in office as recently as 2010/2012.

It is lean R at this point, as I am not counting out incumbents at this early stage.

I do find it interesting on how Democrats on this site are realistic to pessimistic about 2018 Elections but many Republicans are overly optimistic and predicting heavy Republican gains. That must be because of the unexpected Trump victory though.