France: Départementales 2015 - March 22/29, 2015

[Hash]

Lozère is gained by the left (lol)

If anybody wants, good people can chat in #france2015 on IRC

[swl]

We already know that there will be no FN-led département. Despite what they say, it's disappointing for them. However in a few departments, their score is high enough to prevent any party from reaching majority alone, which may lead to awkward UMP-PS or UMP-FN coalitions.

[jaichind]

I have a question on how they calculate vote share on

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/departementales-2015/FE.html

Do they only count vote share based on the cantons that voted today or do they included those results from last week which ended up producing a winner on the first round and then add that to the votes counted today ?

[swl]

Only the places that voted today.

L'Aisne et le Vaucluse were the targets of the FN, and they are the places were unusual coalitions will have to be worked out.

Note that the image for le Vaucluse is a bit misleading: among the far-right seats 6 went to the FN and 4 to the Ligue du Sud (Southern League, a local far-right party, and they don't necessarily like each other).

[jaichind]

Looking at the Vaucluse and Aisne results how could there be a case where the number of seats for a party be a odd number.  I thought every party had to come up with list where there is a man and a women.  Unless there are cases where there are joint lists between different parties.

[jaichind]

March 29 (AFP) -- The deputy leader of France's far-right National Front said he was "sure" the party would not win any local councils in Sunday's election.
With results still coming in from around the country, deputy leader Florian Philippot told AFP "it is sure" the party would not win any councils, despite winning dozens of seats across the country.

[swl]

Yes there were many joint lists. A lot of FdG-EELV or UMP-UDI couples for example.

Usually these couples ran under generic labels "the Left/Right for name of the place", thus the high number of "divers gauche" or "divers droite" in the official results (something we discussed previously).

[jaichind]

"Never... has our political family won so many councils," Sarkozy said.

I am not sure this is true.  It could be on his comment on the size of the number of Departments that has flipped.  But in terms of absolute number of Department under control, my understanding is in the late 1980s and early 1990s the center-right controlled nearly 70 out of 95 Departments.  It seems tonight the center-right will be on route to controlling 66 or so out of the 98 Departments. 

[Hash]

Yes, Poison Dwarf is lying and the Pope is Catholic.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, that could have certainly been a lot worse. Still urgh though.

[jaichind]

I noticed that all things equal the center-left did well in 3 way run-offs when in the second round it came down to center-left vs center-right vs FN.  More often than not the center-left won these races as opposed to the center-right.  In many of these cases the FN often came in second which made FN tactical voting for the center-right candidate unlikely.

[swl]

[swl]

Today the new "departemental councils" elected their presidents. In the Vaucluse, the vote ended up as a tie thus the oldest candidate (the UMP candidate) is elected (a common rule in case of tie in France).

Map:




Taken from Le Monde, there are more details if you click on the link: http://www.lemonde.fr/les-decodeurs/article/2015/04/02/la-carte-des-presidences-de-conseil-departemental_4608033_4355770.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

What did FN councilors do in hung Departments? Did they endorse the right-wing candidate in some instance?

[swl]

No, apparently they presented and voted for their own candidate everywhere.

I ignored the functioning of the presidents' election, but absolute majority is only required in two rounds, then relative majority is enough in the third round, so there is no need to form a coalition at this stage. In case of tie in the third round, the oldest candidate is elected.

[Simfan34]

What could be considered a good or bad result for the different parties tonight? I found this interesting:
 

LOL at "Berezina"

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What does the grey in Tarn et Garonne mean?

[Hash]

What does the grey in Tarn et Garonne mean?

The president elected was Christian Astruc, elected as a DVG councillor in a triangulaire with the FN and the PRG, but elected to the presidency with the votes of the right against the PRG candidate backed by retiring president Jean-Michel Baylet. He won 18 to 12, which is more than expected; as the right had 14 votes to the left's 14. He is considered to be an independent (sans étiquette), or 'divers' (which is basically a huge category meaning 'others')

[FredLindq]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

[Hash]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

[Hash]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

Yes, the Rhône has for all intents and purposes lost all jurisdiction over the Grand Lyon. The reason this came to be is that there was, in 2012, an agreement between Collomb and Michel Mercier (the then-president of the CG). On the other hand, the new Aix-Marseille Métropole was rammed down everybody's throat by the government and the local politicians by and large hate it (which is part of the reason why Guérini did so well in the senatorial elections last year), so I suppose that making the new structure even more powerful would make everybody go bonkers. On top of that, it's the Bouches-du-Rhône, all their politicians are crazy and hate each other's guts, so the chance for a Collomb-Mercier agreement is nil.

Fun fact: The new Rhône department is non-contiguous.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

Yes, the Rhône has for all intents and purposes lost all jurisdiction over the Grand Lyon. The reason this came to be is that there was, in 2012, an agreement between Collomb and Michel Mercier (the then-president of the CG). On the other hand, the new Aix-Marseille Métropole was rammed down everybody's throat by the government and the local politicians by and large hate it (which is part of the reason why Guérini did so well in the senatorial elections last year), so I suppose that making the new structure even more powerful would make everybody go bonkers. On top of that, it's the Bouches-du-Rhône, all their politicians are crazy and hate each other's guts, so the chance for a Collomb-Mercier agreement is nil.

Fun fact: The new Rhône department is non-contiguous.

Cool, let's make the French territorial map even messier!

Really the common sense solution is to abolish Departments and restore the 20some regions map with increased power.

[Zanas]

How many did the left win then? If I count I get 30 excluding Tarn et Garone. So Bérézina it is!!

You should add Paris, Guadeloupe and Martinique, which weren't up for election because their political organization is different, but which technically count as Départements. So that's 33.

Or 34, if you could Gérard Collomb (PS), president of the Grand Lyon, which is technically a collectivité territoriale on par with a department.

Does that mean that the Rhône Département has lost all jurisdiction over the greater Lyon, and that the latter has all the competences of a Département? And if so, why didn't they do the same with Marseille, which is even bigger?

Yes, the Rhône has for all intents and purposes lost all jurisdiction over the Grand Lyon. The reason this came to be is that there was, in 2012, an agreement between Collomb and Michel Mercier (the then-president of the CG). On the other hand, the new Aix-Marseille Métropole was rammed down everybody's throat by the government and the local politicians by and large hate it (which is part of the reason why Guérini did so well in the senatorial elections last year), so I suppose that making the new structure even more powerful would make everybody go bonkers. On top of that, it's the Bouches-du-Rhône, all their politicians are crazy and hate each other's guts, so the chance for a Collomb-Mercier agreement is nil.

Fun fact: The new Rhône department is non-contiguous.

Cool, let's make the French territorial map even messier!

Really the common sense solution is to abolish Departments and restore the 20some regions map with increased power.

To be fair, Vaucluse and Pas-de-Calais Nord (and 3 other), at least, were already non-contiguous.

The tl;dr version of these elections is the following : the front républicain still pretty much works. Differential abstention makes everything. Voters, left or right though a bit more left, can be bothered to turn out in a second round to prevent FN to be elected.

See ya in the régionales in December ! (Will it be the first time a national election is held in December ?)