2014 US Congressional Election Results

[IceSpear]

It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Pryor will win get less than 40%. So maybe he is Blanche Lincoln

Wow, the polls were off there. It had been considered competitive until recently, and still it seemed like he was going to lose by high single digits. I'm think Arkansas may be unwinnable for the Democrats. And yes, that includes Hillary.

It's pretty amazing that Shaheen and Gwen Graham were able to survive this wave.

Doug Owens would be impressive if he wins.

Yup, Hillary has no chance in Arkansas, barring massive GOP overreach and backlash in the next two years. Same goes for WV/KY, but most people already knew that.

[IceSpear]

So is Mark Warner going to win or not? I'm not as savvy with remaining precincts and whatnot as some of you.

The short answer is 'almost certainly'. It's possible that Gillespie will pull this off but it looks very, very doubtful. (Though Gillespie has probably pulled off a future career in elective politics with his performance tonight).

And also completely destroyed Warner's VP (and longer shot, presidential) hopes.

[IceSpear]

Grimes is losing by 16 points. Obama lost by 17 points in 2008.

Looks like Obama has officially killed off the Appalachian/Southern Democrats. And a bit too soon, frankly. We should've run Hillary in 2008 and Obama in 2016 instead. The ages of both would've been better suited for this too.

[IceSpear]

Rounds won a majority in SD, so at least we don't have to chalk that up in a "missed opportunities" category. Probably would've gone the same way as Kansas.

[IceSpear]

So uh, Pryor is currently losing 39-57. Looks like he got Blanched after all

It's pretty amazing how Pryor, Landrieu, Grimes, Tennant, Nunn are all posting Obama-esque numbers in these states. Very, very grim. To Appalachia, (D) = Obama now.

[IceSpear]

Looks like polls in Alaska (besides Ivan Moore and Hellenthal of course) were pretty good this time. No strong pro-D or pro-incumbent bias.

[IceSpear]

Another lesson from this election: Don't read too much into early voting. Or exit polls.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Delaney will pull it out. 50-49 with 100% in. Truly crazy it was so close. Ashford ahead 48-46 in NE-02 with 80% in.

[IceSpear]

Wow, Horsford goes down in NV-04. 48-46 with 97% in.

[IceSpear]

100% in in HI-01, and Takai won 52-48. Knew this one would be very close.

[IceSpear]

I just realised something  - this is the first election since the rise of the Tea Party to not feature at least one Republican "giveaway" for being too conservative. Was there even a clear example in the House?

It should've been Ernst, but the media was too enamored with her "folksiness" to pin her with the extremist label.

[IceSpear]

Ann Kirkpatrick up 53.4%-46.8% in AZ-1.  Wow.  And Barber down 36 votes in AZ-2. 

Damn, Kirkpatrick is a beast. I'm pretty sure Barber trailed in the early AM of 2012 too, so assuming the counting is the same, he should pull it out. But who knows.

[IceSpear]

One bright spot: Ashford has extended his lead over Lee Terry, now leading 49-46 with 85% in.

[IceSpear]

Begich being a bitch and not conceding. Even dems on twitter are calling him out.

I wouldn't concede if I were Begich, either.  He's leading the early vote that's in so far, and more of it is still out.  I doubt there are enough votes outstanding for Begich to win, but why concede until all the votes have been counted?

^^^^

[IceSpear]

Races still uncalled on the NYT:

AZ-02 - McSally (R) ahead by 46 votes. Presumably what's out is more Republican territory, but this could go either way.

CA-07 - Ose (R) up by about 3,000 votes with absentees uncounted. Even though they'll likely skew Dem, Ose probably hangs on. R+1

CA-09 - Don't know why this is uncalled, McNerney (D) should win.

CA-16 - Costa (D) is narrowly behind, but the late vote should skew Dem. Costa probably hangs on.

CA-17 - Only question is whether Honda (D) or Khanna (D) win. Honda is currently ahead by ~3,500 votes.

CA-26 - Brownley (D) is barely ahead, but she should hold on.

CA-31 - Aguilar (D) should win. D+1. This, NE-02, and FL-02 will be the only Dem pickups.

CA-52 - DeMaio (R) narrowly ahead. Could go either way.

LA-05 and LA-06 - Republicans will hold these seats in the runoffs. Ralph Abraham and Garrett Graves will be new congressmen.

MD-06 - Don't know why this is still uncalled. Delaney (D) will win.

NE-02 - See above, Ashford (D) will win and Terry has already conceded. D+1

NY-25 - Slaughter (D) up by around 500 votes. She probably hangs on.

WA-04 - The only question here is which Republican wins the head to head, Newhouse or Didier.

So assuming Republicans win AZ-02 and CA-07 with Democrats holding/winning the rest, the final count will be 249-187, a net gain of R+14.

[IceSpear]

Other outstanding races:

VA-Sen - Warner has stretched his lead, now leading by about 15,000 votes (was 13,000 earlier). A call on this one is probably forthcoming.

AK-Sen - Sullivan's 8,000 vote lead looks pretty solid, but the very thin probability of absentees skewing heavily Dem enough to save Begich keep this uncalled.

LA-Sen - Landrieu 42, Cassidy 41, Maness 14. Runoff.

VT-Gov - Shumlin falls below 50% and wins by a pathetically narrow 2,000 vote margin. But since he'll likely stay ahead, the legislature will have no qualms about electing him. D hold.

AK-Gov - Walker is currently ahead by 3,000 votes here, but god only knows how the bush will vote in this race.

If Walker wins, it'll be a net of +2 for the GOP, +1 for Indies, and -3 for Dems. Truly stunning.

[IceSpear]

Did anyone else notice Jim Himes won by only 51-49?!

Another race that was on nobody's radar screen.

[IceSpear]

So at this point, it seems the only way for Democrats to take back the House before the next census is a massive wave. Luckily, massive waves seem to be becoming more and more common.

[IceSpear]

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.

[IceSpear]

The fact that Udall is only going to lose by 2 points in the end proves it was his terrible campaign that did him in. What a dickweed.

At least Bailey lost by such a landslide that he was probably doomed regardless.

One could make the argument that it was his campaign that kept it close. There's really no way to prove one way or other.

Not really. His campaign was universally panned across the political spectrum and got him tons of negative press. "Mark Uterus" became a running gag. It was the reason the Denver Post endorsed Gardner.

[IceSpear]

Oh, I just noticed that Ro Khanna lost. Wonderful news!

[IceSpear]

The Republican in NY-25 just conceded.

After this, Democrats should be nudging Slaughter to the door for next cycle.

Why? It's not like she was the only almost (or actual) freak upset. 36% turnout, GOP wave, and Cuomo's reverse coattails is a nasty combination. She'll be fine in 2016. Unless you mean due to age, in which case I kind of agree.

[IceSpear]

An interesting factoid I just noticed: Shaheen got 51.6% in both 2008 and 2014, a high turnout Democratic wave and a low turnout Republican wave. Go figure.

[IceSpear]

Interestingly, even if Dems won all the races that were relatively close (AK/CO/NC), they still would've lost the Senate, since the GOP won SD/WV/MT/AR/IA/KY/GA/KS comfortably, and will probably end up winning LA comfortably as well.