Canadian by-elections, 2014

[trebor204]

New Year, New Topic

2 provincial by-election have been called in Manitoba for Tuesday Jan 28th for Morris and Arthur-Virden.

Both are in PC strongholds. In the 2011 election Arthur-Virden went 65.7% PC, and Morris went 73.6% PC.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Morris-Arthur-Virden-byelections-will-be-held-Jan-28-237521551.html

[trebor204]

In Morris PC at 70% (20/68)
In Virden PCs at 65% (20/83)

[trebor204]

In Morris (63/68)
PC 2518 - 69.5%
NDP 478
LIB 408
IND 138
Green 81

Arthur Virden (67/83)
PC 2638 - 67.0%
Lib 668
NDP 405
Green 226

[trebor204]

All of the polls have been counted:

Morris
Voter Turnout - 27.51%
PC - 2642 - 70.0%  (2011 73.6%)
NDP - 488 - 12.9% (19.26%)
LIB - 422 11.1% (6.5%)
Ind - 138
Green - 85

Arthur-Virden
Voter Turnout - 33.55%
PC - 3137 - 68.2% (2011 65.7%)
LIB - 738 - 16.0% (3.8%)
NDP - 480 - 10.4% (30.09%)
Green - 245

Voter Turnout was low due the cold weather.
And in Morris, some residents were waiting for the heat to turned on because of the pipeline explosion last weekend.

[trebor204]

John Turmel is running in Thornhill under the party label "Paupers".

After tonight

He holds the Guinness Book of Records holds  for most elections contested (80) and lost (79). One by-election was pre-empted.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Turmel

[trebor204]

In 2011, 7 provinces and territories had elections within a month in the fall. These provinces (expect Yukon) have fixed election dates that will be tentatively scheduled for the fall of 2015, the same time as next federal election (Oct 19th)


NWT -  1st Monday in October, schedule for Oct 5, 2015
Saskatchewan - 1st Monday in November, schedule for Nov 2, 2015 or April 4, 2016
Manitoba - 1st Tuesday in October, scheduled for Oct 6, 2015 or April 19, 2016
Ontario - 1st Thursday in October, scheduled for Oct 1, 2015
PEI - 1st Monday in October, scheduled for Oct 5, 2015, COULD BE  moved to April, 2016
Newfoundland - 2nd Tuesday in October, was scheduled for October 13, 2015, now moved earlier due to resignation of the premier.

Right now, it looks like 3 provinces will have their elections moved from the fall of 2015 to April 2016.
Newfoundland will have an early election due the resignation of the premier.
Ontario has a minority government, and an election might be called soon.
I haven't read anything about NWT moving their election date.

[trebor204]

Sad news,
 Former finance minister Jim Flaherty has died

[trebor204]

It wouldn't be the first time a wife ran to fill her husband's seat after he dies.

Chuck Cadman died while he was in office in 2005. His wife Dona,  endored NDP Penny Priddy in the 2006 election.  However she ran (and won) for the Conservatives in 2008 election, but lost her seat in 2011 election.

[trebor204]

The Ontario by-elections could have waited until the fall (after the provincial election). However, you are going to run into the municipal elections.

If you only call the 2 Alberta by-elections (Conservative ridings), the opposition will accuse the party of playing games by not calling by-elections in the former NDP, Liberal and Conservative ridings.

Had there not had a election call in Ontario, I would expect the by-elections to be called earlier in June.

However, you can have by-elections running at the same time as General elections

Case in Point:

During the 2004 Federal Election, residents in one  provincial riding in Winnipeg, had to vote in 3 separate elections / by-elections within 1 week.

The mayor at that time, Glen Murray (Now, Transport Minister Ontario), resign his seat and ran (and lost) for the Federal Liberals in Winnipeg. This started a chain reaction in resignations of Provincial MLA, City Councillors, and School Trustees. 

Tuesday June 22nd:
1)  2 Provincial by-elections were held (one in Winnipeg and one in Rural Manitoba)
2) City-wide by-election for Mayor, along with a couple of City Councillors and School Trustees

Since these elections were separate, voters had to travel to 2 polling stations (one local, one provincial)

Monday June 28th
Federal General Election

[trebor204]

Trinity-Spadina has 349 polling stations! I never saw a riding with so much.

Mapping it is going to be a nightmare. Even with GIS help.

I did a quick check comparing poll location for Trinity Spadina from 2011 election to the by-election. It looks like they have used the same poll divisions.  For example Toronto Island used poll #181 for both elections. They might have more splits. ie (120A, 120B.)  Normally a poll will be spilt by last name. 120A - A-M & 120B N-Z.

[trebor204]

Still waiting for the final 3 polls (must by Special Voting Rules or Advance Voting ) from Macleod. I wonder if the CHP candidate will overtake the NDP. Right now there is a 3 vote by the NDP.