PA-PPP: Hillary up easily

[Mr. Morden]

As discussed in the other recent PA thread (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=206063.0) the GOP has a big decision to make about how hard to go after PA. If numbers like this hold up, then PA's recent trend does look to be more about Obama's bad fit and the GOP may not want to waste money on a state that hasn't voted GOP for prez since Bush Jr. in 1988.

Except that, if you go by the new ABC/WaPo national poll, the margins in PA here are actually lower than they are nationally.

The question isn't which states are close right now, since right now Clinton is far enough ahead that it wouldn't matter where the GOP spent $.  The question is, if Clinton were to lose enough ground nationally that the national race became competitive, which states would be close then?

[Mr. Morden]

You can't compare PPP in one state to a national poll of registered voters from another firm.

It doesn't matter which poll you pick, the point stands.  Clinton has a significant national lead right now, so you can't say "She's leading by 10 points in this state, so that proves the GOP should ignore it."  She's presumably leading by ~10 points or more in every swing state, because that's how big her national lead is.  It doesn't say anything about whether it should be targeted in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav %:

Carson 25/16% for +9%
Clinton 47/44% for +3%
Warren 25/26% for -1%
Biden 41/44% for -3%
Huckabee 31/39% for -8%
Paul 31/39% for -8%
Santorum 33/43% for -10%
Romney 34/49% for -15%
Christie 30/48% for -18%
Bush 28/48% for -20%