Actually given Cuomo's ethics issues, I wouldn't be surprised if Teachout won... The problem is she wouldn't beat Astorino in a General election.
Teachout isn't winning anything unless Cuomo is found in bed with a dead girl. Even then, it probably wouldn't matter because he's not married. This ethics scandal probably won't amount to much. Astorino and Teachout simply don't have the money to publicize it on TV. The Democratic party is currently trying to paint Astorino as unethical for giving jobs to the politically connected in recent ads.