What wil the next Senate look like?

[Virginiá]

-A two-seat gain in the Senate in a midterm is not "unprecedented". What were you going off of here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225412.msg4844270#msg4844270
Florida was known to be trending GOP since 2000 when this was written.

Not what I was talking about.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

-A two-seat gain in the Senate in a midterm is not "unprecedented". What were you going off of here?
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=225412.msg4844270#msg4844270
Florida was known to be trending GOP since 2000 when this was written.

Not what I was talking about.

-But that is my prediction for now.

[Virginiá]

-But that is my prediction for now.

My entire series of posts was in response to your post for Spenstar, not your exact prediction. I dunno I thought that was pretty clear.

Anyway, I've made my point.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

No one knows how 2018 will turn out in states like WI, MT or FL. I'm pretty sure that Republicans will gain seats in the Senate but lose seats in the House. However.. can I just say that Republicans actually underperformed on the Senate level both in 2010 and 2014?

2010, sure, but idk how you can really say they underperformed in 2014. Gillespie, Ernst, Tillis, Cotton, and Rounds all ran ahead of polling. And NH was always a leans D affair. No one really called it a tossup at the time. They basicaly swept all competitive races and almost brought down Warner, so no, I wouldn't really say that.

They were forced to spend millions in red states like KS, KY and GA.  On election day, they only won Senate races in the Romney states and Iowa (which is trending R anyway) and Colorado (which the Democrats threw away). They lost in VA, NH, MI, MN, IL, etc. and their margins of victory in LA, AK, CO and NC were very narrow and hardly signs of a "wave". Had the Class 3 Senators been up for reelection in 2014, Democrats probably would have gained 1-3 seats.

Not denying that it was a very good night for them, though.

-That was probably due to the good economy in 2014.

[DC Al Fine]

Barring a wildcard like a massive recession, scandals etc, which admittedly is more likely under Trump, the Senate should look pretty similar to today, since the GOP will be incumbent and be primed to suffer losses, but the Democratic opportunity for gains will be limited.

[Cynthia]

Dem probably won't control it, but my projection is D floor of 46 seats.

[Hindsight was 2020]

At the rate Trump is going 50-50 is looking likely

[Sir Mohamed]

At the rate Trump is going 50-50 is looking likely

Pretty unlikely. I just don’t see how Dems are picking up NV and AZ while losing no seat; especially ND and IN. The very best scenario 51-49 GOP (picking up AZ and NV while losing ND). More likely is that Flake survives while IN and ND are gone for the Dems. NV will be a pure toss-up, so likely anything between 52-48 to 54-46 GOP. I wouldn’t be surprised if endangered Republicans distance themselves from the Trumpster like Dems have done in 2014.

[Blackacre]

At the rate Trump is going 50-50 is looking likely

Pretty unlikely. I just don’t see how Dems are picking up NV and AZ while losing no seat; especially ND and IN. The very best scenario 51-49 GOP (picking up AZ and NV while losing ND). More likely is that Flake survives while IN and ND are gone for the Dems. NV will be a pure toss-up, so likely anything between 52-48 to 54-46 GOP. I wouldn’t be surprised if endangered Republicans distance themselves from the Trumpster like Dems have done in 2014.

Heitkamp is not the most vulnerable Dem in 2018. She may have won by only a hair in 2012, but it was against a noncontroversial opponent, and retail politics is stronger than party politics in states as tiny as North Dakota. (However, Donnelly, while not dead in the water, is in more trouble)

Also, dems distancing themselves from Obama did not help one Iota in 2014.

[Hindsight was 2020]

At the rate Trump is going 50-50 is looking likely

Pretty unlikely. I just don’t see how Dems are picking up NV and AZ while losing no seat; especially ND and IN. The very best scenario 51-49 GOP (picking up AZ and NV while losing ND). More likely is that Flake survives while IN and ND are gone for the Dems. NV will be a pure toss-up, so likely anything between 52-48 to 54-46 GOP. I wouldn’t be surprised if endangered Republicans distance themselves from the Trumpster like Dems have done in 2014.

I was actually arguing the dems pick up 3 seats AZ/NV/an either UT or TX leaving room for ND or IN to loss