The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

What am I missing about that Georgia number? Because that shift is well insane.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard

These numbers are stale, but a week ago, it seems like very strong GOP turnout in North Georgia which favors Trump. Potentially leading to low election day turnout.

And as elsewhere nationally, Black share of vote is down.

[HillOfANight]

TargetSmart ‏@_TargetSmart  5m5 minutes ago
In '12, Hispanic voters accounted for roughly 10% of the early vote one week ahead of the election. This year, 14%. http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486?cid=eml_onsite …

Reassuring perspective given the Black turnout drop...

I did the math, assume Whites gave Ds 35% each year, Blacks 95% to Obama, 90% to Clinton (conservative worst case), 60% Hispanics to Obama, and 70% Hispanics to Clinton...

Overall, with that, Clinton on track with Obama 2012 at worst.

[HillOfANight]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

There was a massive sorting affect in Florida this cycle because of Trump. About 300,000 to 400,000 people switched to GOP to vote in the primary. (Source: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states). However, approximately 3/4 of new registrations have been non-white voters since August, and half have been non-white since 2012. (Source: http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/08/increase-in-minority-voters-poses-problem-for-trump-in-florida-104717)

The thing with those people who switched from Democrat to Republican is THAT THEY WERE NOT VOTING FOR DEMOCRATS. They hadn't since 1964 (maybe Carter). They weren't Democrats. So even though Democrats would constantly go into election day with a 4-6% lead in turnout according to registration, it was closer to 1% actual votes cast.

But if you look at who has registered (and turned out) among new registrants, whether Democrat or NPA, they are largely either young or Hispanic and lean Democrat. So while the turnout by registration has leveled off for Democrats, when you include NPAs into consideration, Democrats have added probably 5-6% of cushion on their margin from 2012.

Where is the specific quote of 300-400k switching?

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/10/15/the-last-word-on-voter-registration-numbers-in-florida/

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Daniel Smith finds that the big Dem drop is mostly old Dems dying or being inactive. There are some switchers, but not a huge amount.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/01/politics/early-voting-update-black-vote-decreasing/index.html

Arizona
- Republicans up 4% now, vs 10% in 2012 at this point.

Colorado
- Democrats up 2.4%, vs GOP 2.8% margin in 2012.
- The Dem advantage has been shrinking recently though.

Florida
- GOP up 8.8K, compared to in 2008, when Dems lead by 50K.
- Black vote down to 12% from 15%
- Latino up from 9.4% in 2008 to 14% today

Georgia
- Black vote at 31% now, vs 36% in 2012
- It's been creeping up, but needs to be much higher

Iowa
- Democrats led by 58,000 votes, an edge of nearly 12%, at this point in 2012.
- Today, they are up by nearly 42,000, or 9.3%.
- That's a drop in the Democratic lead of about 5 points over the last week.

Nevada
 - Democrats are 7.5 points ahead of Republicans, roughly where they were in 2012. And the Democratic lead has grown in recent days.

North Carolina

- For the first time this cycle, Democrats are ahead by more than 200,000 early votes, and they have a 13.4-percentage-point lead over Republicans.
- But that's still off the party's 2012 pace in a state Romney narrowly won: Four years ago, Democrats were up by 292,000 votes at this stage, or 17.9 points.
- The black vote is also down in the Tar Heel State. At this point in 2012, the electorate was 67% white and 28% black. Today, it is 73% white and 23% black.

Ohio
- The GOP has an edge over Democrats of 4.7% now, while Democrats held a very slight lead at this stage in 2008.

[HillOfANight]

Excited White Trump supporters voted very early, now tapped out?

[HillOfANight]

It looks like the FL/NC polls are backwards, with NC being less diverse, Florida being more diverse (Latinos more than offsetting lower Black share).

[HillOfANight]

I wouldn't say so. Florida's Hispanics are less favourable to Clinton than national average while blacks voted almost unanimously for her.

The surging Hispanic vote definitely isn't voting for Trump. They were 60-40 for Obama in 2012 in Florida, maybe 70-30 at worst for her this year, which is still a huge improvement.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/card/hispanics-make-greater-share-florida-early-vote-2016-n676486
Whites down 4%.