ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[KingSweden]

Campbell is loaded, so he can make this a race, but it’s telling that Mitch and co. were shopping for an alternative

[KingSweden]

Love your sig, MT

[KingSweden]

Love your sig, MT

Thanks.

:THINKING:

[KingSweden]

The GOP tried to recruit someone other than him, then that fizzled out and they had to go back to him. Draw your own conclusions.

[KingSweden]

Sabato moved ND from Lean D to Tossup because of this, lol.

Not unreasonable given that he's a congressman and we need to see a poll on this even if he's a flawed candidate.

[KingSweden]

What was so bad about Campbell, again?

[KingSweden]

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lol, Cramer can't catch a break.

[KingSweden]

If I’d been personally recruited then left in the cold I’d be frustrated too

[KingSweden]

Rofl....Cramer loses it after seeing Heitkamp invited to the White House

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Watch Trump perceive this as disloyalty and throw Cramer under the bus

[KingSweden]

Cramer cucked again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/koch-political-network-supports-heitkamp-for-bank-deregulation-bill.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

[KingSweden]

Cramer cucked again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/koch-political-network-supports-heitkamp-for-bank-deregulation-bill.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

Cramer must be having the worst week of his life.

His son died last year

[KingSweden]

His son passed away this year, actually.

Didn’t recall it being that recent, but you’re right.

Cramer cucked again:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/koch-political-network-supports-heitkamp-for-bank-deregulation-bill.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar

No wonder that the Koch Brothers are pro-choice just like Heitkamp who opposed the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act that prohibits a physician from performing an abortion on a woman after 20 weeks of pregnancy, except in certain cases of medical emergency, rape, or incest. It could help Cramer to portray Heitkamp as « too liberal » for North Dakota.

https://votesmart.org/bill/20278/54058/41716/pain-capable-unborn-child-protection-act#.WxFgDIrA_IU

I’m sure North Dakota is one of the 43 or so states that has elected to, on its own, pass a law consistent with Casey that more strictly regulates abortions after the 20-24 week threshold.

[KingSweden]

To Take  down Heidi, Cramer has run against Schumer.  In the polarized Senate Hedi will have no power.  In this polarized setting either Schumer or McConnell will control the Senate.  Schumer in control will be a threat to North Dakota oil interests.  Every Democrat posting here knows that.  Most of you are in favor of that. 

LOL No, Heidi Heitkamp isn't a "pawn of Schumer" she's supportive of North Dakota's oil and is popular even among conservatives there.

Did I refer to her as a pawn.   NO! NO!!  My point is that is that in this polarized political era the Majority Leader has almost complete control of what comes to the floor.  Under Schumer judicial nominees and executive nominees who might be favorably disposed towards legal theories favorable to the oil industries will find their nominations sidetracked.    In addition regulatory action unfavorable to oil companies will find is my electing
there way forward.  There will be nothing of substance that Hedi will be able to do.

The only substantive alternative is McConnell as majority leader.  The only way North Dakota can insure this is by electing Cramer.

A similar argument can be made with regard to the regulation of firearms.

Hedi brings control of North Dakota by Schumer.  She can’t do anything about it.

She can do plenty about it. A scenario where Schumer is majority leader is one where Heidi and Manchin are still around, and probably a 51-49 Senate where they would exercise the ability to vote with Republicans on votes they please provided something hits the floor.

[KingSweden]

To Take  down Heidi, Cramer has run against Schumer.  In the polarized Senate Hedi will have no power.  In this polarized setting either Schumer or McConnell will control the Senate.  Schumer in control will be a threat to North Dakota oil interests.  Every Democrat posting here knows that.  Most of you are in favor of that. 

LOL No, Heidi Heitkamp isn't a "pawn of Schumer" she's supportive of North Dakota's oil and is popular even among conservatives there.

Did I refer to her as a pawn.   NO! NO!!  My point is that is that in this polarized political era the Majority Leader has almost complete control of what comes to the floor.  Under Schumer judicial nominees and executive nominees who might be favorably disposed towards legal theories favorable to the oil industries will find their nominations sidetracked.    In addition regulatory action unfavorable to oil companies will find is my electing
there way forward.  There will be nothing of substance that Hedi will be able to do.

The only substantive alternative is McConnell as majority leader.  The only way North Dakota can insure this is by electing Cramer.

A similar argument can be made with regard to the regulation of firearms.

Hedi brings control of North Dakota by Schumer.  She can’t do anything about it.

You claim you didn't say she's a pawn of Schumer, than you go on to say just that in different words. But this is coming from a guy who predicted Moore would win.

I NEVER PREDICTED MOORE WOULD WIN!!!

IIRC you did support Moore, though, even after the pedo stuff broke

[KingSweden]

Underrated concern in this race - Will native americans and enviormental activists, a sizable chunk of the ND Democratic Base, actually bother to even fill out a ballot for the Senate race? I think this is more of a concern here than even West Virginia, where there were real protests over oil construction by activists and Heitkamp sided with the oil industry hard.

I feel like the margin in this race is incredibly influx because of those factors. Will the new people living here to work in the oil industry actually vote Heitkamp or will they abandon her for someone who will probably serve the industry better in Cramer.

This is a very fair concern actually

[KingSweden]

Rep. Cramer comes across as really whiny in this WaPost article about Trump support for Heitkamp

I'm starting to be more confident in Heitkamp than I am in Nelson at this point.

Probably smart. Heitkamp knows how to navigate a close election. Nelson hasn't had a close election in two decades.

Agree with you, though I think both win in the end.

[KingSweden]

Cramer is not running a very good campaign

[KingSweden]

Heitkamp is someone who could really get screwed over the SCOTUS nomination, if she votes no she gives up any pretense of being a moderate and likely loses several centrist/conservative votes. If she votes yeas she risks alienating the far left that is funding her campaign

TIL you're not a moderate unless you support a far-right SCOTUS nominee.

Such is life when you live in a political climate polarized based on an issue of morality.

On a kinda sorta maybe semi-related note:

This is obviously anecdotal, but interestingly enough, I've talked to quite a few rank-and-file Republicans who have said they would support (albeit reluctantly) raising taxes to make free or low-cost contraceptives available in all grocery stores once they realize that increasing access to and the affordability of contraceptives is by far the most effective way to reduce the number of abortions (significantly more effective than banning abortion would be, tbh), especially ones from the religious right faction ( affluent socially liberal fiscal conservatives tend not to like this idea so much ).  File that under unexpected common ground that can be found when you engage in civil discourse with folks you completely disagree with

I also never cease to be surprised by the number of folks I've talked to who were shocked to learn contraceptives/birth control aren't "abortion drugs," but instead simply prevent the pregnancy from occurring in the first place. 

Access to contraceptives (especially IUDs) and universal parental leave would probably halve the abortion rate within a few years

[KingSweden]

Big news:

https://twitter.com/Robillard/status/1023989524865536000

I know Heitkamp supported their degregulation bill, but...wow. I dont know if this is telling on how good Heitkamp is, how bad Cramer is, or how badly the Kochs are realizing they are losing their sway over the D party.

I've read they are pissed on the tariffs and they want to make an example out of someone.

In which case it makes sense to make an example of Cramer, since Heidi won’t be as hostile to them as others might be

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037449944221794304

So there's been some speculation that this poll is a ND poll... we don't know for sure, but if it is, what would y'all expect the results to be?

I'd guess somewhere in the neighborhood of Cramer +2.

I mean, Im not sure. Heidi could be leading, but I have no information to go off of. If its ND, then I will predict....nothing, cause I have no idea. I have heard its a DE poll though.

Ah yes crucial Delaware

[KingSweden]

Polling one demographic group exclusively is so dumb

[KingSweden]

Cramer with some remarkable tone deafness on Kavanaugh

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/21/politics/kfile-cramer/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

[KingSweden]

Safest prediction ever: If the next poll shows a closer race, Cramer fans will cling to the Fox poll, while Heitkamp fans will say that they knew the Fox poll was wrong and that Heitkamp is still going to win. I swear, the dramatic reactions to single polls around here make me question why I spend so much time here. I guess it's going to be pretty bad, now that we're in the home stretch.

Anyway, I always thought Heitkamp would have a hard time for reasons I've explained before, and while she's struggling even more than I thought, it's not like losing a seat in ND means that the "Democrats are in disarray." The Fox polls themselves suggest that both McCaskill and Donnelly could survive even as Heitkamp gets crushed, if you take the polls at face value.

DKE is less reactive than this place

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/jwgop/status/1048982945124552704

I’d rather see a public survey than these Twitter rumors

[KingSweden]

It's really difficult to get a North Dakota driver's license.

There's only four DMVs in the state that are open five days a week, all in ND's four largest cities (Fargo, Bismarck, Grand Forks and Minot). If you don't live near one of those, you might be lucky if the closest government center that offers DMV services is even open one day a week. Many are open only times like the 2nd and 4th Wednesdays of each month with hours like 9:40AM to 3:20PM. Here look: https://www.dot.nd.gov/divisions/driverslicense/docs/Drivers%20Lic%20Sites.pdf

Luckily ND does allow license renewal online, but that only applies to current residents. If you're formerly out of state, to get one you have to take the written test, which is notoriously difficult. I had to take it four times to pass, and it's joked about in high schools about how no one except geniuses passes it on the first try. It's not like it's the equivalent of a bar exam or anything, but is designed to be challenging because of how young ND allows people to take it at (as young as 14.) And no being a seasoned driver doesn't help much because it's mostly about memorization and regurgitation of traffic law facts, while driving experience is mostly habit and muscle memory.

So basically, I don't think many out of state oil workers are getting ND licenses, especially since a lot still have families back home that they're not willing to relocate and only plan on being there temporarily anyway. Also theres a lot less of them than there was a few years ago. Not saying Heitkamp will in, there's a lot of factors against her like increased polarization and barely winning last time, but I don't think this is a major blow against her, or honestly possibly not even a blow at all.

Good analysis