UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (user search)
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  UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK General Election - May 7th 2015  (Read 276366 times)
Blair
Blair2015
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« on: February 23, 2015, 09:01:29 AM »

SNP problem isn't about left or right, the SNP are actually too the right of the current labour party (Ed M) They just seem to attack New labour. If labour came out in favour of rail nationalization, no auserity and scrapping Trident the cybernats would still accuse labour of betraying Scotland by siding with the tories,

The SNP situation is ing messed up
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2015, 05:39:47 PM »


It's assume, because as a labour supported I admire the Greens but she just can't seem to get her act together. One bad interview is fair enough but she's had two where she's just failed completely
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2015, 05:35:32 AM »


Rightly or wrongly, it was the narrative going around in the run-up to the election.

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He won for the same reason that Mitt Romney and Michael Dukakis won their respective party nomination - he was the best or least worst of an unimpressive field.

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The big Labour-supporting unions are certainly not 'lefty' in Labour Party factional terms.

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Yes, because we all know that union members are not capable of researching candidates on their own terms and have to be told who to vote for... Tongue

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Except on those occasions when they haven't (which is quite often).

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He won because he was up against a drunken idiot in the second round. He would have lost a two-way battle between himself and Callaghan. Just over two years prior to his election, Wilson lost by a 2-to-1 margin to Hugh Gaitskell.

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Granted, though Heffer was obviously to the left of Kinnock.

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And, as I previously said, those unions are generally not on the Labour left.

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Smith had been seen as Kinnock's natural successor even when a 1992 victory looked likely. The main alternative to Smith was the then-leading moderniser Gordon Brown (though of course he did not contest). Blair, yes, although he charisma had a lot to do with it too.

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Have you ever seen that image of him holding a banana? As for looking and sounding like a potential Prime Minister, the same could have been be said of Tony Benn.

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Sure, but there is little correlation between the faction of party leaders and their electoral successes/failures. Of Labour's three most successful post-WWII leaders, two (Wilson, Attlee) were from the left and one (Blair) from the right. Of Labour's two lowest post-WWII vote shares, one came under a left-winger (Foot) and the other a right-winger (Brown).

I was literally just about to say this haha, you've hit the nail on the head. Brilliant Analysis.

As a labour member, there's pretty much 3 reasons why Ed Miliband won

1) He had ideas about how to reform the country, and the economy. He actually knew that after 2008 the markets had failed, and we need reform
2) He had high profile backing from across the party-not just the unions. About 45% of members and MP's voted for him.
3) David Miliband acted like he deserved the leadership-he tried to coup Brown in 2008 and backed out because Brown was despite his faults a good operator. His 2010 campaign had an air of 'clinton 2008' where he assumed that the nomination would a naturally come to him. He didn't distance himself from the blairites, he was shamefully New labour and we just faced our biggest defeat since 1918.

In regards to trade unions, they're often ironically voting on the right of the labour Party. A lot of members want to scrap Trident, but the Trade unions block it because it gives like 400 people jobs. And as said they don't simply meet in a smoke filled room, and individual members can vote as well.

Ed won in 2010, and I believe that the same could happen in 2015.

The problem with UK politics, is the crap that comes out in polling.

'The two parties are too similar... Ed Miliband is too left wing'
'I don't like Career Politicians... Ed Miliband looks weird''
'labour crashed the economy... Ed Miliband supports Austerity''
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 05:53:07 PM »

As Ascroft said, national polls just show the mood of the country not the likelyhood of seats
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2015, 05:20:14 AM »

I asked this question in the Canadian 2015 elections thread, and I will ask it here: could what happened in Israel happen in the UK? Polls are showing the contest as neck-and-neck, but could the final election result see the Conservatives actually increase their seat totals in Parliament, and strengthen their hold on government, enabling PM David Cameron to stay around at least until the end of the decade?  Does anyone see that happening?

Yeah Cameron could surge, I mean he's got everything in his favour (I'm a labourite as well!) An economy that is improving, strong leadership ratings and the incumbency factor. However they've been telling us that this surge is going to happen for the last year-they were suppose to pull ahead in the polls in the Autumn according to there leadership team.

If it was like 1992- a normal lab vs con race they could, but there's too many other factors (UKIP,SNP, post-expenses scandal, nasty party image, Miliband debate etcs)
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2015, 04:28:35 PM »

Well considering he's more popular than his party, surely this is a bad move.

Not really.

Maggie Thatcher got into serious trouble once she got past 10 years as PM. Tony Blair took that lesson on board and resigned exactly on the 10 year mark so Cameron is essentially following in Blair's footsteps.

But Blair's problems started once he made his no fourth term pledge in 2004, he wanted to serve until 2009/2010 but after making a Cameron-esque pledge it basically ed his leadership.

I have no idea why Cameron is doing this, all it will do is make his opponents more aggressive in getting rid of him
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Blair
Blair2015
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2015, 04:28:13 PM »

Miliband came out fighting last night, people have responded to that and there'a buzz about Ed now. Questions were aggressive and bias-asking DC if he has had 3 shredded wheat then asking Ed if he's a north london geek.

Ed stuck it to DC
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