Trump win in NH?

[Ricky1121]

The RCP average has him up by 2.0 points, and he is leading basically all the polls there right now (one is tied I believe). Can Trump actually pull off a win here?

[EpicHistory]

Even before the FBI reopened the investigation, a tightening was clearly occurring with a spate of polls from reliable sources showing the race at only +4 or +3 Clinton. Since around the announcement of the FBI investigation, she has only come out ahead in one poll (Advocacy poll by PPP) while managing a tie in another. Given all of that, I would say Trump is on track to pull off a close win there.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Trump has several advantages over other Republicans in NH:

1.  He's a Northeasterner.

2.  He's not a religious conservative, nor is he strongly identified with religious conservatives.

3.  NH is a tax haven state with a GOP low tax bias.

On the other hand, NH is relatively highly-educated, so the general Trumpness doesn't go over well there.

I believe that NH went Democratic despite its low-tax orientation is its distaste for Southern religious conservatives. 

[jaichind]

Ask Senator Brown. He'll tell you the answer.

While I do feel Trump will fall short in NH I believe that back in 2014 Brown was behind Shaheen in the RCP average.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

No. But, it will be closer than it should be.

[mark_twain]

Trump probably has a better chance to win NH than either FL or NC.

That said, he probably will lose both FL and NC.

[Ebsy]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html

[Xing]

Probably not. I highly doubt that the past week would suddenly throw NH into Trump's column, after Hillary's had such a commanding lead there. I could buy it tightening, but I don't see Trump carrying it.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html

despite general tnvol logic the polls were only off by 2 points, that would mean Clinton would win by like 0.4%

[Senator Spark]

Absolutely, albeit narrowly.

[ProudModerate2]

PPP
Oct. 31-Nov. 1
781 LV

New Hampshire: Clinton +5
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

[rafta_rafta]

No, the demographics of the state don't favour Trump even though it's very white

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Positives for GOP:

Relatively few minority voters
Bias toward small government/low taxes
Libertarian tendencies on economic issues in general


Positives for Dems:

Dislike of religious fundamentalism/Evangelical conservatives
More unionized than median
Well-educated population
Voting Democratic for President is a habit now


I would consider Trump's chances in NH better if he were a true low tax conservative, but he's not, and NH voters know this.