Most likely neither Hillary nor Trump will be their party's nominee. (user search)
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  Most likely neither Hillary nor Trump will be their party's nominee. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most likely neither Hillary nor Trump will be their party's nominee.  (Read 1522 times)
Bull Moose Base
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« on: March 15, 2016, 01:03:14 PM »

You know Democrats have no winner-take-all states, yes? The longer it drags on, the higher margins Bernie has to win by to overcome her delegate lead. He's going to blow her out in New York and California? So Bernie has closer to a 7% chance than a 70% chance of being the nominee.

The GOP is less certain but Trump is not unacceptable to the majority of Republican voters. A record number of Republican voters for a nominee? Yes. A majority of them? No. They might still stop him but he's much closer to 90% to win than 90% to lose.
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Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,488


« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2016, 01:50:50 PM »

Unless the planets align in the wake of a blue moon and Sanders wins North Carolina, it is mathematically impossible for him to win the nomination. You can let go of your pearls, my friend.

Currently the odds of me being right are only 7.7% on PredictIt. Let's see if I'm right Smiley

EDIT: And yes, it is mathematically possible for Elizabeth Warren to jump into the race tomorrow, take every pledged delegate going forward, and go into the convention with more than either Hillary or Bernie. Will it happen? No. But is it possible? Yes. Stop saying my predictions are mathematically impossible because if that was true, Bernie wouldn't be campaigning.

Well, I'll grant you that Sanders could easily win the nomination if Clinton's army of superdelegates started evacuating en masse, but that doesn't seem particularly likely. As it stands, in order to make up the deficit, he needs to blow Clinton out of the water in every primary from here until the convention.

Sanders needs a mathematical perfect storm to pull this off, and even as an ardent supporter, I just don't see that happening.

Ignore the superdelegates. If Bernie wins pledged delegates and it gets overturned with supers, the Dems will come out of their convention in worse shape than the GOP. But even just looking at the pledged delegates, very hard for me to see how Bernie closes the gap.
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