Updated CNN GOP debate average + why it may be the same 10 people+Fiorina

[Abraham Reagan]

It'll take some common sense on the part of CNN to realize that not including someone in a debate simply because pre-Fox debate polls outnumber post-debate polls is wrong. Why did we even have the first debate if not to allow the under exposed candidates a chance to shine? One of those candidates, Fiorina, really did shine and now she's polling well. TIMES CHANGE, OPINIONS CHANGE!

[Likely Voter]

I'd be curious to see what FEC rule CNN is citing to claim that their hands are tied.

The  Federal Election Campaign Act says the FEC sets rules and regulations for debates and section c of 11 CFR 110.13 - Candidate debates of the Code of Federal Regulations reads...

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While FOX did change their debate rules a bit it was only to let more people into the kids debate by lowering the threshold, it didn't deny anyone so the FEC didn't care and no one complained. If CNN changed the rules to kick Christie out and allow Fiorina in it would almost certainly result in a complaint from the Christie campaign.

It is worth noting that section b of the same regulation states...

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https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/11/110.13

By changing the rules to let Carly in and kick Christie out could easily be seen as a violation of that rule.

However, if they did expand the main debate to 11 and let them both in, then it is likely no one would complain. Rick Perry and Ben Carson have both said that Carly should debate.

But CNN has bought 10 podiums and it may not be worth the hassle for them to change things.

[The Other Castro]

Are they thinking of changing the rules?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/cnn-unveil-changes-criteria-next-gop-debate/

[ElectionsGuy]

Are they thinking of changing the rules?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/cnn-unveil-changes-criteria-next-gop-debate/

Yes. They'll find a way, they know if Fiorina doesn't get in that they will be in big trouble.

[Mr. Morden]

Are they thinking of changing the rules?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/1/cnn-unveil-changes-criteria-next-gop-debate/

Looks like it, yes.  They're holding a conference call with the candidates' campaigns right now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's been amazing to watch CNN go from "You knew this was the criteria, you can't just freak out because it doesn't meet your every demand" to "We can't change it because lawsuits/we already elected to buy only 10 podiums" to "Okay, we'll talk"

Best of luck to Fiorina.

[Likely Voter]

CNN has essentially added a 'bonus podium' to the debate. Here is the updated rule...
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/01/politics/cnn-debate-criteria-amendment/index.html

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So as of now that means that Fiorina would join the same 10 at the FOX debate. However, if she performs very poorly in polls released between now and the 10th she could lose that bonus podium.

[The Other Castro]

Barring some very abnormal polling over the next week, Fiorina is now as good as in.

[Blair]

I think if Christie goes to the kiddie debate he'd probably kill one of them

[/]

I think if Christie goes to the kiddie debate he'd probably kill one of them

[RI]

The rules were stupid to begin with, but tweaking them this close to the debate is really weak.

[Skye]

Fiorina needed to get in due to her poll numbers. All she needs to do now is not to disappoint in the debate itself.

[SteveRogers]

A convoluted fix, but I get that they had to work out a change that would keep Christie in while letting in Fiorina but not Perry or anyone else. It will be interesting now to see if there's a new breakout star of the kiddie table debate. 

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, does that mean that Fiorina is in the debate now?

[The Other Castro]

So, does that mean that Fiorina is in the debate now?

Almost definitely yes.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So, does that mean that Fiorina is in the debate now?

As long as she remains in the top ten in the average of CNN approved polls taken after the Fox debate.

[Horsemask]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

So if she stays in the top 10, we'll have 11 people at the main debate and 5 (or 6) at the kiddie table debate?

[Horsemask]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

So if she stays in the top 10, we'll have 11 people at the main debate and 5 (or 6) at the kiddie table debate?

That's what I've been led to believe, though to be honest I don't know if I'm reading CNN's new rules right or anything.

[SteveRogers]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

So if she stays in the top 10, we'll have 11 people at the main debate and 5 (or 6) at the kiddie table debate?

Yep. Not sure yet if Gilmore is invited to the kiddie debate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So the 10 from Fox plus Fiorina? Works for me...though I hope Fiorina doesn't drop that same "my good friend Bibi Netanyahu" line that she has been saying at every single campaign stop. Its just old.

So if she stays in the top 10, we'll have 11 people at the main debate and 5 (or 6) at the kiddie table debate?

Yep. Not sure yet if Gilmore is invited to the kiddie debate.

He needs 1% in 2 more CNN approved national polls.

[Likely Voter]

RE: Prime Time Debate
Basically what CNN did is instead of replacing their original criteria, they added a new criteria, giving candidates two different ways to qualify for their primetime debate. Either...
1. Score in top 10 in average of polls between July 16th and September 10th (original criteria)
or
2. Score in top 10 in average of polls between Aug 6th and September 10th (the post Fox debate bonus)

Here are the two lists...

1. polls since July 16 average
1   Trump    22.8
2   Bush    12.0
3   Walker    10.3
4   Carson    7.3
5   Cruz    6.1
6   Rubio    5.9
7   Huckabee    5.8
8   Paul    5.1
9   Kasich    3.4
10   Christie    3.3
11   Perry    2.0
12   Fiorina    1.9
13   Santorum    1.3
14   Jindal    1.1
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3
17   Gilmore   0.1

2. polls since Aug. 6 average
1   Trump   25.7
2   Carson    11.0
3   Bush    9.7
4   Cruz    7.3
5   Walker    6.7
6   Rubio    6.3
7   Fiorina    5.0
8   Kasich    4.7
9   Huckabee    4.3
10   Paul    3.7
11   Christie    3.3
12   Perry    1.3
13   Santorum    1.0
14   Jindal    0.3
15   Pataki   0.3
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0

As you can see currently Christie is only in the original top 10 and Fiorina is only in the new top 10. The new CNN rules allow for both to be in the primetime debate, which would mean there would be 11 total in the primetime debate.

RE: Kids table debate
CNN has not changed the rules for this, so you still need to average 1% in 3 polls since July 16th. So far everyone but Gilmore qualifies (he only has one poll with 1%).

So the early debate currently would include..
Perry  
Santorum
Jindal
Pataki
Graham

[Mr. Morden]

OK, so we potentially have Fiorina joining the grownups debate to make it 11, and potentially Gilmore failing to qualify for even the kiddie table.  That would leave just 5 candidates at the kiddie table.  What happens if Perry, or another kiddie table participant, ends up dropping out within the next two weeks?  They go ahead with the kiddie debate with only 4 candidates?

[Likely Voter]

Updated with new Monmouth poll

PRIMETIME DEBATE
There are now two ways to qualify for the prime-time debate.

CNN ORIGINAL CRITERIA AVERAGE
Candidates who are in top 10 of average of polls from July 17 to Sept 10 qualify for prime time debate (currently averaging 12 polls)

1   Trump    23.3
2   Bush    11.7
3   Walker    9.8
4   Carson    8.2
5   Cruz    6.2
6   Rubio    5.8
7   Huckabee    5.6
8   Paul    4.8
9   Kasich    3.3
10   Christie    3.2

11   Fiorina    2.1
12   Perry    1.9
13   Santorum    1.2
14   Jindal    1.0
15   Pataki   0.4
16   Graham    0.3
17   Gilmore   0.1

BONUS AVERAGE
Candidates can also qualify if they are in top 10 of average of polls done after the Fox debate (currently averaging 4 polls)
Bold indicates additional candidates who meet new bonus criteria

1   Trump    26.8
2   Carson    12.8
3   Bush    9.3
4   Cruz    7.5
5   Rubio    6.0
6   Walker    5.8
7   Fiorina    4.8
8   Huckabee    4.3
9   Kasich    4.0
10   Paul    3.3

11   Christie    3.0
12   Perry    1.3
13   Santorum    0.8
14   Jindal    0.3
15   Pataki   0.3
16   Graham    0.0
17   Gilmore   0.0

NOTE: Even though Christie is not in the top 10 for the new bonus criteria, he still qualifies for the main debate because he is in the top 10 of the original criteria. As of now that means there will be 11 attending the primetime debate (the same 10 who were at the Fox primetime debate plus Fiorina)

Early Debate
Candidates who do not get into prime-time debate will be invited to early debate (held immediately before). To qualify a candidate must average 1% in 3 polls conducted between July 17 and Sept. 10. Currently 5 candidates qualify.

Perry    
Santorum
Jindal    
Pataki   
Graham    

[Likely Voter]

Podium Positions and question time?
One question that arises now that CNN has added a new criteria is how will they arrange the podiums, which also seems to correlate to question time. Now that there will be 11 attending the main debate Trump will literally be center stage, but who will be to his left and right?  Using the original criteria it would be Bush and Walker, but using the new bonus criteria (based on current polling) it would be Bush and Carson. There are other big differences between the rankings based on which criteria they use to determine position, including Fiorina (is she considered 7th or 11th?)