UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Diouf]

STV/Ipsos Mori poll for general election voting intention in Scotland

SNP 52% 54 seats
Labour 23% 4 seats
Conservatives 10%
Lib Dems 6% 1 seat
Greens 6%
Ukip 2%
Others 1%

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http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/297729-stv-poll-labour-would-annihilated-if-general-election-held-tomorrow/

[Diouf]

The areas where the Greens could theoretically take a significant slice out of the Labour vote are in seats where Labour will win by miles or where Labour has no chance of winning. Mostly they are feasting, instead, on the LibDem corpse.

But isn't the LibDem corpse exactly where Labour hoped to get enough votes from to get a majority/plurality? The polls right now show that Labour is getter fewer of the former LibDem voters than they were in polls in 2012, while the Greens are taking a bigger slice.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9049

[Diouf]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5XoO9RQYtY

If this is the response of Scottish Labour, then we should probably look more at their chances of losing Glasgow North East as well than their chances of regaining the lead in some of the other seats.

First of all, it is quite clearly a lie and one which can easily be shown to be just that. For example by looking at the actions and statements by Labour after the 2010 election.
But also it suggests that no matter how favourable the composition of parliament might be for Labour, they will refuse to form a government if they are not the single biggest party. I'm not really sure they thought this through.

[Diouf]

again, ignorant newbie here: the most likely scenario is a Conservative-UKIP-(LD) coalition gov't?  is Labour-SNP coalition gov't possible?

No, the most likely outcome (if the election was held today, etc) would be Labour minority with tactical support from the SNP (and Plaid).

a popular betting site has the Cons.  over/under at about 285, with the Labour over/under at around 270.  why is Labour minority considered a favorite (it's not just you, the bettors have Labour minority as a small favorite over Conservative minority), is there a piece to this I'm missing?

Because, unlike what Jim Murphy deceitfully tries to pitch to the Scottish voters, the biggest party does not necessarily form the government. If Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SDLP + Greens have a majority, which most forecasts suggest right now, David Cameron will have to resign or be faced with a motion of no confidence which will provide the same result. Then Ed Miliband will form a Labour minority government. How stable such a government will be and how difficult it will be for it to carry through legislation of course depends on the arrangements it will make with other parties.