The influence of the 2012 presidential election

[Purple State]

I think 2012 has a good chance of influencing the next three elections in a very powerful way. A few scenarios below:

A) Obama wins by a huge margin = Obama will have done a fantastic job considering what he was given for this to happen. A victory will show the trust the nation has given the Democratic party and Obama to govern the nation and continue to implement policy. This will likely result in a hand-picked successor in 2016 prepared to continue along the same line of rhetoric and governance, likely a member of Obama's Cabinet or a close ally of his in the party. It is likely that the successor's policies will appear lackluster compared to Obama's, but they will continue the popular course Obama took and provide for reelection in 2020. Finally, the successor will pick another successor, which the people will elect in 2024 as the continuity of the successful policies of the past decade and a half. This second successor will face new challenges largely criticized as the result those same policies that had been earlier praised. They will fail to address them properly and 2028 will go to the Republican party in a landslide rejection of the same old policies.

B) Obama wins by a slight margin = Obama will not have magically poofed everything back into prosperity and peace, but people will recognize the epic challenges he is facing. Things will have improved slightly and another good campaign will result in an Obama second term. Following better times, the nation will rally behind a hand-picked successor in 2016. The good times will continue for much of the successor's first term, but the same challenges will arise and the party will not have improved its policies from the original "barely successful" policies of Obama's first term. The early prosperity, however, will be enough for reelection in 2020. The nation will continue to maintain a mild downturn, but memories of the 2008 economic crisis and the relatively decent handling of the current one will lead to the election of a more centrist member of the same party while rejecting the chosen successor. This time the centrist president will do a good job cleaning up the mess that had never truly been fixed. Much compromise will be made with the Republicans and Congress will lean more and more against the Democrats. The centrist will be reelected in 2028 on the back of the Republicans and come 2032 the Republicans will have the presidency and Congress. (Kinda goes 4 elections past but whatever).

C) Obama loses = Obama's first term is a disgrace. Campaign promises are flung to the wayside as Congressional leadership attempts to press its own agenda over Obama's head. Full Democratic warfare causes a deepening of the economic crisis and little progress on foreign policy and the wars in the Middle East. 2016 sees a remade Republican party that has remained above the fray, leaving the Democrats to consume their own. The Republicans return with this new look to win 2016 with a wide margin and huge gains in Congress. This Republican president is able to pass a decently progressive and successful conservative agenda over large fights with the still slightly Democratically controlled Congress. The people see Democrats as blocking true progress and success and give Republicans the Congress in 2018 and the presidency again in 2020. 2024 will see a more ideological Republican come to office and an extremely Republican Congress swept in. The result will be massive corruption and a lack of a check on the majority power. By 2028 the people will, again, be ready to reject the dominant party and bring in a more centrist Democrat with a slightly less dominant Republican majority in Congress.

Thoughts?

[Psychic Octopus]

i think the Dems will nominate a Clinton Moderate in 2016, like Mark Warner, just to try to help them retain the White House for 8 more years. But odds are a liberal Dem will lose in 2020, just because we never had 4 two term presidents in ar ow.

I'm hopin for the first one, as it would be best for America.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

It really depends on how Obama does over the next four years.

Great: Democrats win 2012, probably 2016 and maybe even 2020.
OK: Democrats probably win 2012, maybe 2016.
Bad: Republicans probably win 2012, maybe 2016.
Horrible: Republicans win 2012, probably 2016 and 2020 as well.

[pbrower2a]

So far I see the Reagan Presidency as the model. I assume that Obama will have an effective Presidency, getting most of the legislation that he wants, if not quite as fast as he likes, but eventually getting it with much the same techniques as Ronald Reagan.  I also predict that Obama will win in a landslide in 2012 because of the power of the incumbency with an effective President as part of the model.

I propose Lamar Alexander as the best analogy to Walter Mondale in 1984, someone approaching the end of his political career who has given long and dedicated service to the party and doesn't offend any core constituencies of the Party (but excites nobody else), and as his running mate someone from a core state of GOP support... and I won't go to greater detail than to say that whether Obama wins in an Eisenhower-like or Reagan-like landslide is moot.

Having not developed a strong candidate to challenge Obama's successor the GOP ends up with its version of Mike Dukakis, someone who looks at first like a solid challenge and then can easily be cut down. Obama's successor, the 45th President who wins decisively in 2016,  has hidden weaknesses as a politician, and after Obama he seems to give very mixed results. After a successful Obama administration, the expectations have been raised, and the Republicans finally have someone analogous to Bill Clinton... who wins.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Only the next two : I see Democrats winning elections in 2012, 2016 and maybe 2020.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Republicans win back the white house in 2012 and keep it in 2016 & 2020 and lose a close election in 2024.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Republicans win back the white house in 2012 and keep it in 2016 & 2020 and lose a close election in 2024.

What a funny predicton...

[Josh/Devilman88]

Republicans win back the white house in 2012 and keep it in 2016 & 2020 and lose a close election in 2024.

What a funny predicton...

Why do you say that? In order to do all of what Obama wants to do taxes will have to be raised on every sooner or later and that will cause the republicans to win back the white house.

[Purple State]

Republicans win back the white house in 2012 and keep it in 2016 & 2020 and lose a close election in 2024.

What a funny predicton...

Why do you say that? In order to do all of what Obama wants to do taxes will have to be raised on every sooner or later and that will cause the republicans to win back the white house.

Taxes don't need to be raised on everyone. That's first off. Second, I doubt there is much Obama could do in the next 4 years to actually lose in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Republicans win back the white house in 2012 and keep it in 2016 & 2020 and lose a close election in 2024.

What a funny predicton...

Why do you say that? In order to do all of what Obama wants to do taxes will have to be raised on every sooner or later and that will cause the republicans to win back the white house.

Only because american right could not immagine that fiscal progressive policies could work, restoring poor and middle classes buying power, and create a more prosperous and more just society. America did that in the past, and it benefited to all the society, even if the more wealthy became less wealthy... Reagan destroyed that : he probably had some reasons, but this crisis and middle class' impoverishment shows he was wrong. The state is a solution, not a problem.