GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Ebsy]

RRH is commissioning a poll, so hopefully we get a decent picture soon.

Paul Ryan's PAC apparently has a poll out that has Ossoff with -17 favorables, which I'm gonna go ahead and say is biased.

No really?!?!?!

So Paul Ryan's PAC released a push poll without any actual numbers. Very informative.

[Ebsy]

Look at this tweet and tell me why Pelosi should remain minority leader, she was also a factor in losing FL-13 with Sink.

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/848909731414585345

Can you just leave the party already?

[Ebsy]

Very high energy old ladies in GA-06 apparently.

[Ebsy]

Even if there is a runoff, this is hardly looking like a slam dunk for the GOP.

[Ebsy]

Still holding onto my prediction that Ossoff surprisingly hits 50% in the first ballot. Perfect storm happening.

Ossoff is showing his amateurishness by not responding to any of these attacks. They can't go unanswered, or voters tend to think they have some sort of truth to them.

lol

[Ebsy]

Still holding onto my prediction that Ossoff surprisingly hits 50% in the first ballot. Perfect storm happening.

Ossoff is showing his amateurishness by not responding to any of these attacks. They can't go unanswered, or voters tend to think they have some sort of truth to them.

lol

I would've thought 2016 would've taught observers to not overestimate the reasoning ability of the electorate

Worked real well for Nixon. Ossoff gets up on stage, says that he isn't an Al Qaeda sympathizer, and whatever he says goes into a new attack ad the next day. Thankfully Ossoff is a disciplined candidate and not so simpleminded.

[Ebsy]

Still holding onto my prediction that Ossoff surprisingly hits 50% in the first ballot. Perfect storm happening.

Ossoff is showing his amateurishness by not responding to any of these attacks. They can't go unanswered, or voters tend to think they have some sort of truth to them.

lol

I would've thought 2016 would've taught observers to not overestimate the reasoning ability of the electorate

Worked real well for Nixon. Ossoff gets up on stage, says that he isn't an Al Qaeda sympathizer, and whatever he says goes into a new attack ad the next day. Thankfully Ossoff is a disciplined candidate and not so simpleminded.

Or, you know, his campaign could do what Kay Hagan's did in 2008 and have the ads called out all over the country for the trash they are.

That's a lot easier to do when you are running against a single candidate like Dole instead of a field of smaller candidates and most of the spending on the GOP side is being done by outside groups. And, these ads have been criticized by the media inside and outside of the district, but honestly, how much media attention do you expect for a single special election to get?

[Ebsy]

That is more than every House candidate last year other than Speaker Paul Ryan. Kevin McCarthy is closest with 7.7 million.

[Ebsy]

It should be noted that this iteration of GA-06 is entirely different than the version Gingrich represented in the 1990s. Not even any overlap whatsoever.

[Ebsy]

The anticipated RRH poll of the district keeps running into problems, and the latest just doubled the cost, so who knows if it will even be published.

[Ebsy]

Ossoff's campaign had 37 employees.

[Ebsy]

RRH says they are releasing their poll of this race Wednesday.

[Ebsy]

Anything below 45% for all Dems combined should result in the firing of the head of the DCCC.

Can you stop?

[Ebsy]

Hasn't weather impacting voter turnout by partisanship been widely discredited?

[Ebsy]

Yep, but we are getting "reports" (hate that word especially when it comes from twitter) that turnout is high in both red and blue areas.

Who knows.

Which reports indicated high turnout in GOP precincts?

[Ebsy]

2 things:

1. They only send out fundraising emails like that because they work.
2. Ossoff has raised and spent a ton (more than any congressional race ever) and is still being outspent by dark money groups on the GOP side. Tells you a lot about the state of campaign finance.

[Ebsy]

2 things:

1. They only send out fundraising emails like that because they work.
2. Ossoff has raised and spent a ton (more than any congressional race ever) and is still being outspent by dark money groups on the GOP side. Tells you a lot about the state of campaign finance.

They work to raise money, but they destroy the candidate's brand. Everything that a campaign does in public contributes to the public's perception of that candidate.

lol

The only people that see fundraising emails are those on the campaign email list. All of them are either outside the district or already voting, so who cares what they think of whatever the "brand" is.

[Ebsy]

I assume that tomorrows GA SD-32 runoff may offer a good proxy for June's runoff. 

I'm not sure much can be assumed with this special election.

[Ebsy]

It's entirely early vote from Sandy Springs in Fulton County, the only part of this district outside Cobb.

[Ebsy]

That being said, these Fulton County early vote numbers are a bit eye popping, especially when Triebsch is getting 70% of the early vote in precincts she got like 11% of the vote in.

[Ebsy]

The Cobb early vote just rolled in and Kirkpatrick took the lead.

[Ebsy]

Special election electorates are almost certainly not going to be identical to a general election electorate.

[Ebsy]

I'm going to take this with caution, but I do believe Ossoff would win 51-49 if the election were held today, by June 20th however, Handel should win 52-48.

This is certainly possible, but what do you expect to happen that would cause it to flip like that?

The latest Russia Scandal to blow over and the Senate to start giving the AHCA a heart, along with Pence coming to campaign and more time to attack Ossoff the district should move back to its norms.

The district's norms are gone. Democrats are not supposed to get 48% of the vote in GA-06, ever.

[Ebsy]

Most of the attacks on Ossoff have backfired horribly.

[Ebsy]

First day of early voting:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/869650342220374018

Those are just mail in absentees, not in person voting. We'll get that data in about 15 minutes.