AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[krazen1211]

If Jeff Flake wants to actually win he needs to go full identity politics scorched earth.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If Jeff Flake wants to actually win he needs to go full identity politics scorched earth on the unmarried childless 40 something female.

Nothing wrong with an unmarried childless 40 year old female.

[Kamala]

If Jeff Flake wants to actually win he needs to go full identity politics scorched earth on the unmarried childless 40 something female.

Nothing wrong with an unmarried childless 40 year old female.

Hell, Krazen’s a 40 year old virgin and we don’t make fun of him.

[PragmaticPopulist]

The Flake For Senate twitter page is the funniest thing on the internet tonight. You can tell they are really reeeaacching to label Sinema as out of touch and a socialist. Both will fail considering Sinema lived in an abandoned gas station while Flakes upbringing is nothing of the sort. Socialist label will fail bc Sinema has been endorsed by the chamber of commerce in the past.

It's starting to look like many of the traditional right wing attacks/talking points won't work on Sinema

Cant call her a Pelosi minion
Or a socialist
Or out of touch with the middle class

Even when it's not true, it's remarkable that one of the GOP's go-to talking points has been so effective. My best guess is that the Democrats they've accused of being "out of touch" just haven't come up with good responses to counter that narrative.

That being said, Sinema would be hard to label as that, and she also seems to be a notch above a typical Democratic candidate on the campaigning side. And Flake doesn't seem like the kind who would stoop to full identity politics in order the drive out the base.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema?

[Holmes]

If Jeff Flake wants to actually win he needs to go full identity politics scorched earth.

This is the strategy I would expect Ward to use.

[Cactus Jack]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema?

Not insignificant if Ward wins the primary. McCain has dedicated the last of his days to making Trump's life miserable in any way he can.

[Webnicz]

I'm not sure if any of you have picked up on this... but the flake camp hasn't been able to find one thing in Sinema's voting record in congress to attack her on. So they resorted to attacking her voting record in the AZ legislature 15 years ago.  Things are looking really good for sinema .

Sounds the GOP was relatively not worried about Sinema until recently when they found out they only have weak attacks on her. I guess she really was the sleeping dragon Dems needed to win their first statewide race in 12 years.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2017/09/28/kyrsten-sinema-in-gop-honchos-hyperventilate/715008001/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Flake's "Socialist Sinema" attack website is so desperate I can't stop cringing. I'm surprised it wasn't Ward's idea. She's the dumb one in this race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What do you think? I'm giving her a 65% chance. The political climate is changing in Arizona and the democrats really hit the nail on the head with this candidate.

[Cactus Jack]

I give her in the range of 50%-60%, which is colossally better than most Arizona Democrats. We're not to the point of tilting Democratic, but 2017 is a perfect storm; Sinema is a good candidate with minimal relevant baggage in today's climate (least of all when compared to Chemtrail Kelli) and both of her potential opponents are absolutely dire candidates.

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

I think 65% is perfect, actually.

I've generally been pretty bullish on Arizona and to a lesser extent Flake's chances for reelection, but those chances predicated on two things:
1. He makes it out of the primary
2. He faces a relatively weak Democratic candidate.

I still think Flake will beat Ward but considering the polls that is not a sure bet at all, and if he does it will be a rough, bruising primary.
Sinema is a very, very good politician. I've always thought that she would be the next Democratic senator from Arizona one way or another, but I'd assumed that she would win McCain's (presumably) open seat in 2022. For her to jump in now means she smells blood in the water, and rightfully so. Flake has quite possibly placed himself in the worst possible position as he will be affected negatively by Trump's unpopularity but not benefit from his support. Arizona is a Republican state, and under normal circumstances I'd give Flake an advantage. But Arizona 2018 is looking to be a perfect storm like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania in 2010, and that only means good news for Sinema. Flake is not DOA by any means, but it is very difficult to call him favored right now.

[Pollster]

I've put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Hoping to have data soon. I've adjusted the methodology from my previous GCS polls to be able to account for party ID in the final analysis as well. Will post results when I have them.

[Figueira]

Sorry for asking such an #analysis-sounding question, but will Sinema's far-left past be a problem? Was it a problem in 2012 when she won her House seat?

[Cactus Jack]

Sorry for asking such an #analysis-sounding question, but will Sinema's far-left past be a problem? Was it a problem in 2012 when she won her House seat?

God knows Vern Parker tried to make it into one (bear in mind that this was when Arizona was still buying hard into the socialist-hating Tea Party thing), but it didn't stick. It'll be even less relevant now, what with Sinema having proven to be a fairly hard-and-fast Blue Dog in Congress and Ward, Sinema's likeliest opponent by my estimation, being in absolutely no place to accuse someone else of extremism.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Around 70%.

She's a great candidate and faces dire opponents, I would be really shocked if she doesn't win

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've put a GCS poll of this race in the field. Hoping to have data soon. I've adjusted the methodology from my previous GCS polls to be able to account for party ID in the final analysis as well. Will post results when I have them.

Of the Republican primary or the general election?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sorry for asking such an #analysis-sounding question, but will Sinema's far-left past be a problem? Was it a problem in 2012 when she won her House seat?

God knows Vern Parker tried to make it into one (bear in mind that this was when Arizona was still buying hard into the socialist-hating Tea Party thing), but it didn't stick. It'll be even less relevant now, what with Sinema having proven to be a fairly hard-and-fast Blue Dog in Congress and Ward, Sinema's likeliest opponent by my estimation, being in absolutely no place to accuse someone else of extremism.

Vernon Parker only lost by 4% in a presidential election year despite being a pretty weak candidate, so I'd argue there's at least some evidence that those attacks worked pretty well.  Plus, Sinema has made a couple of really bad gaffes that are prime attack ad material and she's got a problematic history on several foreign policy/national security issues.  She'd also be really easy to attack as a huge flip-flopper.  I'm not saying Sinema can't beat Flake and Ward would probably get killed, but Sinema's not some sort of unstoppable electoral juggernaut.  She's a decent recruit and (IIRC) a solid fundraiser, but she also has some significant baggage that a few folks here seem to be in denial about.  I worry less about the socialist attacks than I do about things like what she's said about single mothers, 9/11, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the military (AZ is a big defense industry state IIRC), etc.  I think she's certainly favored right now, but Flake could still beat her if he makes it to the GE.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

30%.

[Canis]

65%

[JMT]

What are the chances McCain endorses Sinema?

It could happen if Ward wins the primary. I imagine McCain will endorse Jeff Flake in the primary and stick with him in the general. If Flake loses the primary, I could certainly see McCain endorsing Sinema (still very possible that wouldn't happen, though)

[Webnicz]

Sinema is very calculative, she's been thinking about going statewide for awhile. Since she decided now it likely means she's done research(polls etc) that suggest she has good numbers to go statewide, good enough numbers to risk her safe seat to go statewide in a state that is lean R.

Sinemas working across the aisle, centrism, Country First methodology is very attractive, and something we need these days

I honestly think as of now Sinema is more likely to win than Rosen. Flake is just so hated.

[KingSweden]

Pretty good IMO

[YE]

McCain isn't endorsing someone who opposed the War in Afghanistan.

[diptheriadan]

80% at least.