Vermont Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I realize that me saying this sounds like self-parody but I'm actually serious: Vermont culture has genuine similarities to general boomer/Gen X lesbian culture, to an extent that is probably genuinely part of the appeal of candidates like Becca Balint in the state (and neighboring parts of Western Massachusetts). This is someone who looks and talks like she knows what a head gasket does and why older Subarus have such persistent coolant and radiator issues. It's not out of the question that she watched Star Trek: Voyager and/or has skinny dipped at that one waterfall in North Pownal. It's like aging fraudsters having a special appeal in Florida or extraction company executives in West Virginia.

[KaiserDave]

And with that, the election for Governor of Vermont is over.

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/Governor%20and%20Lieutenant%20Governor%20Elections.pdf

[Roll Roons]

And with that, the election for Governor of Vermont is over.

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/Governor%20and%20Lieutenant%20Governor%20Elections.pdf

It was over from the moment he announced he was running again.

[KaiserDave]

And with that, the election for Governor of Vermont is over.

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/Governor%20and%20Lieutenant%20Governor%20Elections.pdf

It was over from the moment he announced he was running again.

Yeah also that

Notes on the state offices in the second part of the UNH/WCAX poll

1) VT-GOV is over, Phil will probably match his 2020 margin.
2) For Lieutenant Governor, moderates can breathe a sigh of relief. Joe Benning, a libertarian-ish moderate Republican is beating his far-right opponent Gregory Thayer 33/20, with 47% undecided. So it's definitely a race, but I think undecideds will fall on the side of the establishment candidate (Benning). This is bad for Christina Nolan though, clearly she has a unique problem with the Trump Republican electorate. They really don't like her!
3) On the Democratic side, it's a somewhat close race between center-left liberal Kitty Toll (backed by Howard Dean) and pony-tailed leftist David Zuckerman seeking his old job (endorsed by labor and progressive figures). Zuckerman leads 38/23 with the rest of the field at 7 and 4, and 23% undecided. Advantage Zuckerman, but Toll could still squeak it out.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is bad for Christina Nolan though, clearly she has a unique problem with the Trump Republican electorate. They really don't like her!

One really does have to wonder why.

[Senator Incitatus]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

If Nolan looses it will further cement that nationally,  Republican Party is firmly anti-gay people

You might be underselling the fact that Nolan is just kind of weird. Remarkably uncharismatic and running a shoestring campaign.

It's not out of the question that she watched Star Trek: Voyager and/or has skinny dipped at that one waterfall in North Pownal.

I've been there. Had no idea that was a skinny-dipping spot.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Other numbers from the UNH(/WCAX?) Survey Center Poll

https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf

Christina Nolan, the center-right lesbian former state attorney handpicked by the VTGOP and the NRSC is DOWN 30/24 in her primary against a total fringe type. Extremely high undecideds (42%), but Nolan has remarkably high disapproval, so the right wing of the VTGOP has it out for her. If she loses, it would be extraordinarily embarrassing for the Republican establishment. I still think she will win. However, if the far right of the party is performing this well, it could bode poorly for moderate State Senator Joe Benning in his bid against far right Gregory Thayer in the Republican primary for Lieutenant Governor. A victory for Thayer would be the utter ruination of the mainstream conservative and liberal conservative wings of the VTGOP. Could even mean Phil Scott might have a closer than expected contest with his no name challengers. Seems like the VTGOP far right is mobilized to vote against the entire not-far right slate.

If Nolan looses it will further cement that nationally,  Republican Party is firmly anti-gay people

You might be underselling the fact that Nolan is just kind of weird. Remarkably uncharismatic and running a shoestring campaign.

She also seems unsure of how Trumpy she wants to be and is unconvincing whenever her answer for the day is more than "slightly".

It's not out of the question that she watched Star Trek: Voyager and/or has skinny dipped at that one waterfall in North Pownal.

I've been there. Had no idea that was a skinny-dipping spot.

Depends on the crowd, which depends on the time of day. There's also Rock River in Brattleboro, but it's mostly gay men there.

[Orange is back]

Bernie Sanders endorsed David Zuckerman for Lt. gov!

Has he endorsed Brenda Siegel yet?

[KaiserDave]

Hello all! Sorry for the delay on my wrap-up on the primary, MUCH has occurred.

US House) Let's start with the big headlines. Becca Balint decisively (and unsurprisingly) defeated Molly Gray by about 24%. Her coalition included just about everybody, I imagine she won every demographic there is to speak of. Molly had one single concentrated area of support, Franklin County which includes St. Albans. Becca got her best numbers in her native Windham county where she routinely crossed 80% in fairly populated counties. Peebs called it "Pyongyang-upon-Connecticut." I am obviously thrilled with this result and worked hard to get it. Becca is almost certainly headed to Congress, hard to see what Molly Gray does next, hopefully she is a bit humbled. Liam Madden, an anti-war activist and veteran, won the Republican nomination. He is also not a Republican, he is an independent (not even conservative), and he is also...sort of insane. His website has a section dedicated to his conspiratorial views, which includes Israeli spies celebrating 9/11, lots of mentions of pedophilia, among other things. Becca probably won't even mention his name the entire campaign.

US Senate) Christina Nolan, the lesbian, moderate, former federal prosecutor with the blessing of the Vermont Republican establishment (Scott, Douglas) and DC (McConnell, Scott) who was widely expected to be coronated was defeated! by veteran Gerald Malloy (known for his intimidating DEPLOY MALLOY yard signs) who moved to Vermont two years ago from Boston and wants to ban abortion in all 50 states (you can imagine the rest). Until recently I didn't even know if Malloy had an organized campaign. It's truly shocking. I'd be curious to see the campaign expenses, because Malloy definitely spent less by a factor of at least 10. Nolan has already deleted her website (even before the results were fully in) and it's possible she'll pretend this never even happened. Peter Welch won the Democratic nomination with ease, and he will glide to victory over Malloy, but the debates will be fun.

VT Governor) Phil Scott got a very unimpressive 68% in his primary, in which he had two opponents who barely ran a competent campaign. It seems that there is a third of the party, or just about that will always despise him, and would vote for Roy Moore over him. But Phil should not worry, in the Democratic primary, the totally unopposed Brenda Siegel only got 56% of the vote. Why? Unopposed Democrats in other primaries got around 80% or more. Well, about 35% of ballots were blank. And 9% wrote in. What were the write ins? Maybe you can guess.



(it goes on like that, around 8,000 write ins for Scott)

Poor Brenda Siegel, she's a decent person and a hard charging activist with a good heart. But she'll be lucky to get 25% in November.

VT Lieutenant Governor) In a bright light for moderate Rs on a pretty miserable night, Joe Benning the respectable moderate libertarian-ish State Senator from the Northeast Kingdom narrowly defeated far-right loon Gregory Thayer by about 54% to 46%. Thayer did much better than expected, and he might have won if not for Benning's extremely strong performance in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont more broadly, where Benning's neighbors and constituents turned out for him very strongly. Plenty of northern Vermont Republicans voted against Nolan and for Benning, this saved Benning. He's a decent guy and he'd make a good Lieutenant Governor, but it's not as if the LG does anything. In bigger news, David Zuckerman takes one step in his political comeback, recapturing the Democratic nomination for his old office. His performance was pretty poor however, narrowly beating the center-left Former Danville State Representative Kitty Toll. Patricia Preston and Charlie Kimbell, who also occupied a moderate lane, took about 15% between them, probably doing in Toll and saving Zuck. A Zuck vs Benning matchup (they are reportedly friends who share a generally libertarian outlook) should be educational and civil.

Other) Criminal justice reform activist State's Attorney Sarah George for Chittenden County who attracted controversy for her aggressive reforms defeated her tough on crime Democratic challenger Ted Kenney. If Ave was still here he'd be very upset. Charity Clark was chosen as the Dem nominee for AG over Rory Thibault.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hello all! Sorry for the delay on my wrap-up on the primary, MUCH has occurred.

US House) Let's start with the big headlines. Becca Balint decisively (and unsurprisingly) defeated Molly Gray by about 24%. Her coalition included just about everybody, I imagine she won every demographic there is to speak of. Molly had one single concentrated area of support, Franklin County which includes St. Albans. Becca got her best numbers in her native Windham county where she routinely crossed 80% in fairly populated counties. Peebs called it "Pyongyang-upon-Connecticut." I am obviously thrilled with this result and worked hard to get it. Becca is almost certainly headed to Congress, hard to see what Molly Gray does next, hopefully she is a bit humbled. Liam Madden, an anti-war activist and veteran, won the Republican nomination. He is also not a Republican, he is an independent (not even conservative), and he is also...sort of insane. His website has a section dedicated to his conspiratorial views, which includes Israeli spies celebrating 9/11, lots of mentions of pedophilia, among other things. Becca probably won't even mention his name the entire campaign.

US Senate) Christina Nolan, the lesbian, moderate, former federal prosecutor with the blessing of the Vermont Republican establishment (Scott, Douglas) and DC (McConnell, Scott) who was widely expected to be coronated was defeated! by veteran Gerald Malloy (known for his intimidating DEPLOY MALLOY yard signs) who moved to Vermont two years ago from Boston and wants to ban abortion in all 50 states (you can imagine the rest). Until recently I didn't even know if Malloy had an organized campaign. It's truly shocking. I'd be curious to see the campaign expenses, because Malloy definitely spent less by a factor of at least 10. Nolan has already deleted her website (even before the results were fully in) and it's possible she'll pretend this never even happened. Peter Welch won the Democratic nomination with ease, and he will glide to victory over Malloy, but the debates will be fun.

VT Governor) Phil Scott got a very unimpressive 68% in his primary, in which he had two opponents who barely ran a competent campaign. It seems that there is a third of the party, or just about that will always despise him, and would vote for Roy Moore over him. But Phil should not worry, in the Democratic primary, the totally unopposed Brenda Siegel only got 56% of the vote. Why? Unopposed Democrats in other primaries got around 80% or more. Well, about 35% of ballots were blank. And 9% wrote in. What were the write ins? Maybe you can guess.



(it goes on like that, around 8,000 write ins for Scott)

Poor Brenda Siegel, she's a decent person and a hard charging activist with a good heart. But she'll be lucky to get 25% in November.

VT Lieutenant Governor) In a bright light for moderate Rs on a pretty miserable night, Joe Benning the respectable moderate libertarian-ish State Senator from the Northeast Kingdom narrowly defeated far-right loon Gregory Thayer by about 54% to 46%. Thayer did much better than expected, and he might have won if not for Benning's extremely strong performance in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont more broadly, where Benning's neighbors and constituents turned out for him very strongly. Plenty of northern Vermont Republicans voted against Nolan and for Benning, this saved Benning. He's a decent guy and he'd make a good Lieutenant Governor, but it's not as if the LG does anything. In bigger news, David Zuckerman takes one step in his political comeback, recapturing the Democratic nomination for his old office. His performance was pretty poor however, narrowly beating the center-left Former Danville State Representative Kitty Toll. Patricia Preston and Charlie Kimbell, who also occupied a moderate lane, took about 15% between them, probably doing in Toll and saving Zuck. A Zuck vs Benning matchup (they are reportedly friends who share a generally libertarian outlook) should be educational and civil.

Other) Criminal justice reform activist State's Attorney Sarah George for Chittenden County who attracted controversy for her aggressive reforms defeated her tough on crime Democratic challenger Ted Kenney. If Ave was still here he'd be very upset. Charity Clark was chosen as the Dem nominee for AG over Rory Thibault.

Is VT-LG the only not-safe race?

[KaiserDave]

-snip-

Is VT-LG the only not-safe race?

Yeah more or less


In other news

https://twitter.com/zuckermanforvt/status/1558116693712461824

[Spectator]

Did Zuckerman’s horrible gubernatorial campaign damage him so badly than Bennington is favored to beat him this year?

[Roll Roons]

Did Zuckerman’s horrible gubernatorial campaign damage him so badly than Bennington is favored to beat him this year?

I don't know if I'd say Benning is outright favored, but he definitely has a decent chance. I'd start it as a pure tossup.

[KaiserDave]

Did Zuckerman’s horrible gubernatorial campaign damage him so badly than Bennington is favored to beat him this year?

I don't know if I'd say Benning is outright favored, but he definitely has a decent chance. I'd start it as a pure tossup.

Uhhh...I wouldn't go there.

This is a Lean D race, Zuckerman is not that bad of a candidate, he's won general election landslides before. The 2020 gubernatorial election was decided based on COVID-19 and Phil Scott's own strengths as a candidate. Any other Democrat would have performed more or less as well as Zuckerman. In my opinion nominating Holcombe over Zuckerman in 2020 is the difference between losing by 41% and losing by 35%, this is speculation but you get what I'm saying.

[Sol]

Why exactly did Molly Gray do so well in the St. Albans area, btw?

[KaiserDave]

Why exactly did Molly Gray do so well in the St. Albans area, btw?

Something I've been trying to figure out myself! Just more conservative I guess?

[KaiserDave]

I thought it would be best to post a general update on where things stand, we haven't had any discussion on this since the primary

Vermont Governor

This election is....probably over. But a UNH poll had Scott up 48/31, not exactly 2020. Siegel has made pointed, strong, attacks on Scott, Scott has really not been able to respond effectively and his own actions have played into this. His popularity will be enough to save him. Safe R, probably I see something like 58/38 but I honestly don't know, every poll before UNH a month ago had this race just like 2020.

U.S. Senator from Vermont

Welch is very popular and very well known, Gerald Malloy is very right wing and very weird. Welch will probably still underperform Leahy 2016 he will probably still win by around 25. Safe D, 59/36 I think is probable.

U.S. Representative from Vermont
Balint will probably match or be right behind Welch in overall %, so I imagine her around 59%. The right wing vote share is split by Liam Madden (Independent, but Republican on the ballot), Ericka Redic (Libertarian, came in 2nd in the Republican primary). Safe D, Balint wins 58/26/11 or something like that.

Lieutenant Governor
Really not following this too closely, Zuckerman will probably be fine, I just don't feel like Benning has enough money. Likely/Lean D.

[KaiserDave]

New Vermont Polls
VT-AL
Becca Balint (D) 54%
Liam Madden (R) 29%
Ericka Redic (L) 5%

VT-SEN
Peter Welch (D) 63%
Gerald Malloy (R) 32%

VT-GOV
Phil Scott (R-inc) 65%
Brenda Siegel (D) 24%

Phil Scott will win, with a landslide.

Standing by Balint at 57/58 at the end of the day, Welch at 59/60. Madden Zoomers can cope.

[Orwell]

New Vermont Polls
VT-AL
Becca Balint (D) 54%
Liam Madden (R) 29%
Ericka Redic (L) 5%

VT-SEN
Peter Welch (D) 63%
Gerald Malloy (R) 32%

VT-GOV
Phil Scott (R-inc) 65%
Brenda Siegel (D) 24%

Phil Scott will win, with a landslide.

Standing by Balint at 57/58 at the end of the day, Welch at 59/60. Madden Zoomers can cope.

In other news, state that does the same thing every 2 years, does that same thing.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Is there any talk or movement to lengthen VT gubernatorial terms?

[KaiserDave]

My statewide predictions



UNITED STATES SENATOR FOR VERMONT
PETER F. WELCH: 60.7%
GERALD "DEPLOY" MALLOY: 34.9%

Peter Welch is a Vermont institution, Malloy is a nobody, Vermont is Vermont, this is obvious. I used to think Welch wouldn't crack 60 but....maybe he will.



UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE FOR VERMONT
REBECCA A. BALINT: 58.3%
LIAM MADDEN: 29.8%
ERICKA REDIC: 9.8%

Another obvious race. Expect Balint to run slightly behind state institution Peter Welch, but I see her winning Essex county due to vote splitting from Redic (the only conservative in the race).



GOVERNOR OF VERMONT
PHILLIP B. SCOTT: 60.1%
BRENDA L. SIEGEL: 33.4%

We all know how this is going to go. That said, Siegel has effectively hit Scott with some scathing attacks and he has had no real effective response. But I mean, he doesn't need to respond. I expect Siegel to flip her native Windham County (Zuckerman only lost it by 14%) and put up a semi-respectable performance relative to expectations. It won't save her.



LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF VERMONT
DAVID E. ZUCKERMAN: 48.9%
JOSEPH C. BENNING: 45.4%

The only interesting race on the ballot. Zuckerman has been the favorite from the start of this race, and the partisan fundamentals definitely favor him, but I can't help but feel that the moderate Joe Benning is going to over perform. He can depend on strong numbers in the NEK (unfortunately, very few people there) and he has a good base of support to build off of (Milne got like 44% in 2020), and Phil might have coattails. And while Zuckerman's reputation as a "bad candidate" is overrated (his 2020 defeat had very little to do with him, in fact, that's the point), his primary performance against who was really a center-left Dean-backed nobody from the state legislature was pretty poor, he barely won. Benning is also hitting my YouTube feed with an endearing series of last minute ads. Molly Gray got 51% in 2020 in the GE. She was not all that popular (her catastrophic collapse in the house primary proves this further), and Zuckerman is stronger with the progressive base than her, but I think due to national environment and his multitude of opponents within the party that he will underperform her. Note as well that Kitty Toll, his primary opponent was also like Benning, from the NEK. Expect Zuckerman to get destroyed, I mean, destroyed there. But, I don't think it will be enough. Partisan fundamentals will save Zuckerman. I simply don't see Benning getting that plurality, nope. I think I might even be overestimating him somewhat. Well, it should be intriguing.

[KaiserDave]

Lol, lmao even.

[Roll Roons]

Lol, lmao even.

The king lives on!

[President Johnson]

According to CNN, King Scott is at 72%, even topping his 2022 performance. Vermont at this point should just suspend gubernatorial elections and declare Scott EMPEROR FOR LIFE.

[KaiserDave]

Folks. I don't really know what to say anymore.

Phil Scott didn't campaign save for an All-County tour on the day before the election, he ran a few ads, and kicked back with a drink of Jim Beam and Coke and watched it all unfold. And unfold it did.

Phil Scott, with preliminary numbers won 71% to 24%, his greatest landslide to date. And get this, I can't believe I'm even typing this out. Phil Scott has won every town in the state of Vermont. He's won Burlington by 7!!!! points (that one is at least partially on me), he's won Brattleboro by 11!!!!!!! points. He won Putney by 5! It's shocking, it's unbelievable! He has essentially transcended partisan politics entirely. It's incredible. I've been very critical of his term, but he's moving Vermont in the right direction, broadly. Congratulations to him.

Peter Welch led the Democratic ticket with a resounding 68.5% of the vote, which is more than Biden and far more than Trashfalgar had him at. Malloy at 28.1%. Welch really is an institution. Balint won her race soundly, with 62.7% of the vote. Madden on 28% and Redic at 4.5%. Zuckerman defeating Benning 51/41 as things stand now, Dems won every other row office easily and I think they might have a supermajority back. What we witnessed was a blue wave in Vermont. Welch over performing Biden was actually one of the first signs to me that expectations of a Red Tsunami were ill-founded.

My predictions were terrible, I horribly underestimated Democrats. I thought after all, there would be a red wave, that hasn't happened, in fact Vermont has had a blue wave. I underestimated Phil Scott too, which I can't believe I did after 2020, he is unassailable.