You are Andrew Cuomo: Do you secretly want Obama to win or lose in 2012? (user search)
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  You are Andrew Cuomo: Do you secretly want Obama to win or lose in 2012? (search mode)
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Author Topic: You are Andrew Cuomo: Do you secretly want Obama to win or lose in 2012?  (Read 2019 times)
TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

« on: September 22, 2011, 11:17:24 PM »

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.
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TJ in Oregon
TJ in Cleve
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,948
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.13, S: 6.96

« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2011, 08:32:08 AM »

He might want Mitt to win the Presidency. Mitt's conservative, but I think most can agree he's no crazy.

I must disagree with you on this one. Mitt is not a conservative. He's the posterboy for what's left of the northeastern moderate establishment in the GOP.

This really is the question in the Republican primary, isn't it? Yes, Mitt says all the conservative answers to the questions he's asked, but are those his actual opinions or not? Still, with the terrible awfulness of the rest of the Republican field it looks like Mitt's the best we've got, but I still wonder some if he's really worthy of our trust.

As for Cuomo, I think he wants Obama to win so he can have an open-seat election in 2016.

In 2016 the Republicans  are going to have a huge number of weak incumbents holding Senate seats -- Republicans out of touch with states in which they are Senators holding seats that Republicans could win only in the freakish year of 2010 (Rubio, Ayotte, Kirk, Portman, Johnson, Toomey) and can win again only if they restyle themselves as moderates, a couple who might be vulnerable in a reverse wave if they are out of touch with slightly-R states (Blunt, Marshall --  MO, NC), and a couple of fellows aged 80 or so (Grassley, McCain) who have been going decidedly rightward.   Should the Republicans win the Senate in 2012 and or 2014, President Obama is effectively neutralized as a President, becoming in essence a caretaker and a lame duck.  But  ten vulnerable Senate seats? Such utterly destroys the chance of a GOP filibuster. A bare Democratic majority in 2014 in the Senate could give the 45th President much to achieve. Tea Party politics will likely die that year.

The GOP will likely lose Senate seats in 2016 because 2010 was a freak year, but Florida, New Hampshire. Ohio, and Pennsylvania were seats a Republican was also elected to the previous time in 2004. They aren't seats a "Republican could only win in 2010". Sure Kirk might be in trouble but he may also have enough RINO in him to survive regardless.

If 2016 is a Democratic year, then yes things will be very difficult for the GOP. But, that's also five years away. Who knows what the country will be like at that point. Heck, of Obama does get re-elected his approval ratings could be in the 20s by then if the economy is still failing. If that happens Rob Portman may have a chance of winning Cuyahoga County, much less the Ohio race even being close. There's absolutely no use in predicting Senate races five years in advance. None.
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