Weighted Presidential Election Trends by State (2000-2016) (user search)
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  Weighted Presidential Election Trends by State (2000-2016) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Weighted Presidential Election Trends by State (2000-2016)  (Read 1530 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: June 10, 2017, 08:06:20 PM »

1. Several Northeast states trending Republican as much or more than the core Obama->Trump Midwestern states is noteworthy and somewhat surprising.  The margins may be deceiving in parts of New England.

2. Texas being in the same league with VA and CO on this timescale is surprising.  Even with Bush being from there it barely moved relative to the national margin during the Obama years.  This is the counter to the small NE states in #1.  I would not underestimate how fast the GOP margin could evaporate there going forward.

3. Nevada sticks out for not moving left as much as its neighbors.  2008 is basically the entire Dem trend there.

4. Florida comes out looking a lot better for Democrats than I would expected, especially with 2000 as the 1st year. 

5.  It is interesting that the 2008 anomaly doesn't even register in Indiana.  It's still rather amazing that Obama won there.
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Skill and Chance
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Posts: 12,688
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2017, 03:55:29 PM »

The map looks a bit like how I envision the electoral map to look in 4-6 election cycles. Of course, it still remains to be seen if the midwest just trended R because of Trump, and a more conventional Republican would bring it back to it's normal leanings. The midwest trended D towards the end of the Bush years in most elections.

I think it's more that Upper Midwest (and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania and rural New England) swing voters are very dovish.  Look at the trend in 1920, 1940, 1952, 1968 (minus the Humphrey home state effect in MN), and 1972.  These states tend to swing abruptly against any incumbent party that goes to war, if the war was at all controversial.

Democrats did so well in these states in 2004 and 2008 because of backlash against the Iraq War.  Had Bush not started that war, the 1996-2000 trend would have continued and many of these states would have already been Republican-leaning in 2004.  In local margin vs. national margin terms, the Democratic peak in several Upper Midwest states was all the way back in 1988.

With the possible exception of PA due to its Acela corridor influence, the only way I see Dems winning any of these states back is if Trump starts an unpopular war.  Trump is more likely to pick up MN and ME-AL next time than Democrats are to flip MI or WI back.
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