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May 18, 2024, 09:16:49 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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 1 
 on: Today at 09:12:47 AM 
Started by DrScholl - Last post by Steve from Lambeth
...yes? I just don't think the conclusion follows from the premises.

 2 
 on: Today at 09:10:44 AM 
Started by Hnv1 - Last post by Rubensim
Also, Israel says those three people were murdered on October 7 and Hamas took the bodies with them. Remember they have swapped human remains for live prisoners before.

I think Shani was alive in some of the videos on Oct 7.

There are heaps of photos going around of Palestinian militants standing proud on murdered and raped Israeli's on Oct 7.

The Palestinian militants were sharing their murder-rape-athon on social media with each other. One of the things Muslims do to Jewish women in these raids is they cut their breasts off. I don't understand it, but it happened in the 1930's when Muslim radicals were driving Jews out of northern Africa.

Even though they are outrageous, they appear to have committed historically repeated acts of violence.

It's gruesome and depraved. I can see why the rest of the planet has rocked up to protect Israel.

The whole history of the Jews retreating to Israel is a nasty episode.
the entirety of Jewish history can be summarized in "Jew got Genocided flee to new location and repeat" that why pretty much almost the entire Jewish population is either located in Israel or the united states, Israel because it the safest place to be a Jew and the united states since compared to a lot country there haven't been a single genocide against them in the Usa.

 3 
 on: Today at 09:10:43 AM 
Started by Chancellor Tanterterg - Last post by Chancellor Tanterterg
Part 3/3: Hamas’ Allies in the Ongoing War

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ):

Key differences from Hamas: The PIJ is significantly more extreme and rabidly opposed to any compromise than even Hamas.  Sort of like Hamas if the most moderate and pragmatic member of its leadership was Fathi Hamed.  The PIJ really lacks anything remotely resembling a pragmatist wing and is also much more decentralized than Hamas.  

However, it was badly weakened when many of its top leaders and most experienced commanders were taken out by Israel in an early-to-mid 2023 flare up and is in general both much weaker and less organized than Hamas.

That said, still easily the second most powerful terrorist group in Gaza and has arguably eclipsed Hamas as the chief Palestinian rival to Fatah in the West Bank during the months following Al-Arouri’s death.  

While the PIJ’s official headquarters is technically in Syria in much the way Hamas’ is technically in Qatar, since Al-Nakhalah became leader in late 2018, the group has come far more under Iran’s influence than in the past to the point that Al-Nakhalah’s rivals within the PIJ have waged a pretty successful whisper campaign claiming he converted from Sunni to Shia Islam at Iran’s behest.

Top-Tier:

- Ziyah Al-Nakhalah* - Head of the PIJ - Hiding in Lebanon or (more likely) under government protection in Syria

- Akram Al-Ajouri - Second in command of PIJ, Head of PIJ’s military wing - Hiding in Syria under government protection

- Muhammed Al-Hindi - Third in Command of the PIJ, Chairman of the  PIJ’s Political Bureau - Living in luxury in Turkey under government protection

- Nafiz Azzam - Second in Command of the PIJ’s Political Bureau - Hiding in Lebanon or Syria

- Khaled Al-Batsh - Head of the PIJ in Gaza, Member of the PIJ’s Politburo - Captured in the second raid on the Al-Shaifa Hospital Complex

- Khalil Bathani - Commander of PIJ forces in Gaza - In Hiding

- Bassem Al-Saadi - Head of the PIJ in the West Bank - Serving a 22 month sentence (arrested in 2022)

Mid-Tier:

- Ishan Ataya - Head of the PIJ in Lebanon - In Hiding

- Nasser Abu Sharif - Chief money man for the PIJ, Chief Emissary to Iran - In Hiding

Low-Tier:

- Abd Al-Aziz Awda - Co-Founder of the PIJ - Hiding in Lebanon

- Abu Hamza - Spokesman for PIJ’s Military Wing - In Hiding
———————-
The Popular Resistance Committees (PRC):

Key Differences from Hamas: The PRC was the third strongest Palestinian terrorist group in Gaza, but it is far, far, far weaker than the PIJ (to say nothing of Hamas).  The gap in strength, organization, and general effectiveness is massive.  However, they were still an active and dangerous military force with some real pull in Gaza.  Note the use of past tense.

In many ways, this group is less a truly independent organization and more Hezbollah’s direct proxy/military wing in Gaza in everything but name.  As such, they’ve been historically been fierce rivals of Hamas and Fatah alike, but teamed up with Hamas during the October 7th massacre.  Historically, their rivalry with Hamas was very dangerous because the PRC was strong enough to get Hamas’ attention, but unlike the PIJ,  the PRC was never strong enough that Hamas would face a potentially lethal civil war in Gaza if it seriously went after them.

However, their capacity to assist Hamas is limited as Hamas took out most of their best military commanders and many of the group’s leaders last decade, something the PRC never really recovered from.  Hamas’ takeover of Gaza also brought an end to the PRC’s historically extremely close ties with Gaza’s Civil Police.  

Most importantly, Hezbollah has been increasingly disinclined to expend resources arming or funding the PRC the way it had before October 7th leading me to wonder if PRC went off the reservation by agreeing to participate in the massacre without getting Hezbollah’s sign-off.  

In any case, the PRC has basically been decimated to the point that they’re no longer much of a factor in the war and I suspect the group will collapse entirely and permanently if their current leader is killed.  He’s barely holding the remnants of the PRC together with some band-aids and a few pieces of used scotch tape.  

Hezbollah clearly no longer cares about the PRC anymore and Israeli troops have taken out most of the PRC’s troops.  Regardless of the outcome, the PRC are definitely one of the big losers of the war.

- Abu Shashnyeh - Head of the PRC, Replaced Hilal as Head of the PRC’s Military Wing because they have no truly competent and experienced commanders left - In Hiding

- Rafat Abu Hilal - Head of the PRC’s Military Wing - Killed in Airstrike
—————
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP):

Key Differences from Hamas: The PFLP is technically part of the PLO and Fatah’s chief rival within the organization.  However, where Fatah’s leadership is generally content to enjoy the financial fruits of its corruption in its West Bank fiefdom, the PFLP is an extremely violent group that has historically punched above its weight in terms of terrorist attacks although they’re nowhere near as good at it as Hamas, Hezbollah, or the PIJ.  

The PFLP is probably best known for assassinating the then-Israeli Minister of Agriculture in 2001.  This seems to have impressed Hamas because the groups have generally had a bit of an odd couple friendly-ish relationship.  I say this because the PFLP is at least officially a secular Marxist-Leninist group that kinda flailed around aimlessly after the USSR collapsed until the aforementioned assassination.  

And yet despite these major ideological differences (at least on paper, PFLP has very much rebranded itself as an uncompromisingly hardline militant terrorist group), Hamas has generally at least tolerated the active presence of the PFLP in Gaza.  At one point Hamas was even planning to break the PFLP’s leader out of a prison in the West Bank, but this was scrapped when he was forcibly moved to a far more secure Israeli prison.  For its part, the PFLP has sung Hamas’ praises and actively participated in the October 7th massacre.

Then again, the PFLP was never a competitor to Hamas, so that’s probably part of it.  The PFLP is a relatively small group whose membership shrunk dramatically after the USSR’s collapse and it never recovered.

- Ahmed Sa’adat - Head of the PFLP - Serving a 30 year sentence that began in December 2008

- Jamil Mazhar - Second in Command of the PFLP - Living in Syria under government protection

- Abu Fouad - Third in Command of the PFLP - Living in Syria under government protection
—————
Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP):

Key Differences from Hamas: In 1969, the PFLP’s Maoist faction had a real People’s Front of Judea moment and split off to form the DFLP.  Today, the DFLP is a small, weak, and largely insignificant de facto Syrian proxy that’s so irrelevant that the US dropped it from its list of designated terrorist groups back in 1999.  I was on the fence about whether to even include them.

This poorly equipped, disorganized, and generally weak group participated in the October 7th massacre as a Hail Mary attempt to regain some shred of relevance.  How are they doing now?  I’ll just say that the war has been going exactly as well for them as you’d expect and leave it at that.

- Nayef Hawatmeh - Head of the DFLP - Living in Syria under government protection

- Qais Al-Karim - Second in Command of the DFLP - Hiding in the West Bank or Syria
—————-
Military Allies from Outside the West Bank and Gaza Strip:

Iran’s Quds Force:

- Esmail Qaani - Head of the Quds forces - Living in Iran

- Mohammad Fallahzadeh - Second in Command of the Quds forces - Living in Iran

- Razi Mousavi - Commander of Quds Forces in Syria - Killed in Airstrike

- Mohammed Zahedi - Commander of Quds forces in Syria and Lebanon - Killed in Airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus

- Sadegh Omidzadeh - Intelligence Chief for the Quds forces in Syria - Killed in Airstrike
—————
Hezbollah:

- Hassan Nasrallah - Head of Hezbollah - Hiding in Lebanon

- Naim Qassem - Second in Command of Hezbollah - Hiding in Lebanon

- Hashim Safi Al-Din - Third in Command of Hezbollah, Head of Hezbollah’s Military Wing, Head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council - Hiding in Lebanon

- Mohammad Yazbek - Head of Hezbollah’s Religious Council (which also functions as its legal committee) - Hiding in Lebanon

- Ibrahim Aqil - Head of Internal Security for Hezbollah’s Military Wing - In Hiding

- Talal Hamiyah - Chief of Foreign Operations for Hezbollah’s Military Wing - In Hiding

- Fu’ad Shukr - Chief Military Affairs Advisor to Hassan Nasrallah - In Hiding

- Mohammed Aknan - Head of Hezbollah’s Lebanese Resistance Brigades militia - In Hiding

- Mohammed Saleh - Second in Command of Hezbollah’s Lebanese Resistance Brigades militia - Killed in Airstrike, but I couldn’t find if it was in this war or not

- Mohammed Raad - President of Hezbollah’s pro-Syrian Parliamentary Wing (the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc), Member of the Lebanese Parliament - Living in Lebanon

- Khalil Shahimi - Commander of Hezbollah’s Elite Special Operations Forces units - Killed in Airstrike

- Wissam Al-Tawil - Deputy Commander of Hezbollah’s Elite Special Operation Forces units - Killed in Airstrike

- Ali Hussein Barji - Commander of Hezbollah’s Air Force in southern Lebanon - Killed in Airstrike
—————
The Houthi Movement:

Abdul Malik Badruldeen Al-Houthi Al-Houthi - Leader of the Houthi Movement - Living in Yemen

 4 
 on: Today at 09:07:26 AM 
Started by jojoju1998 - Last post by Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
He's a rich millionaire that is obviously a Conserv athlete not a liberal let him have his little speech. All those millionaire athletes are just as arrogant they just haven't said it

 5 
 on: Today at 09:06:23 AM 
Started by Crumpets - Last post by Crumpets
I enjoy watching long-form video essays on YouTube, I enjoy researching and writing essays (to an extent), and I feel like I have at least a mediocre level of expertise in fields of study that people have built successful YouTube channels on in the past. This wouldn't be a job, just a hobby, and any money made would be incidental and an added bonus.

Does anyone on here operate a YouTube channel that's more than just a personal account and actually makes content for an audience? Any tips to help or horror stories to dissuade me?

 6 
 on: Today at 09:05:56 AM 
Started by Arizona Iced Tea - Last post by kwabbit
That does not take into account PA/MI/WI though. Really the EC advantage is almost entirely based on the margins on Midwestern/Rust Belt Swing States

Exactly this (plus NV/AZ/GA too).

It would be possible for the EC advantage to shift back toward Trump again.

No it isn’t.

In 2020 very few people expected the EC advantage to shift nearly an entire point towards Trump.

Not really. Most serious pundits thought Trump’s EC advantage would be significantly larger than it ended up being.

Remember that people thought Biden would win the PV by a lot more than he did in reality, whereas the eventual EC result was very close to the actual state-by-state breakdown that people expected.

I saw many predictions where Biden was winning the NPV by 7 or even 9 points but Biden was still under 300 EVs. If you’d told them Biden would only carry the PV by 4 points in the end, many of them would’ve taken that to spell certain doom for him.

The election results in places like MD, IL, NY, and especially CA were way closer than people thought they would be. Trump also outperformed expectations in safe red states, just not to the same extent. However the 2020 “red wave” didn’t really reach the swing states at all (aside from exceptions like WI), since Biden’s campaign did a good job of targeting the real battlegrounds.

They did not think Trump’s EC advantage would be bigger. I can’t recall a single person thinking Biden would be likely to lose if he won by 4. Most had it staying the same or really believed that Biden had made disproportionate gains in the Rust Belt as an Old White Guy and it would contract. Polling had it contracting to around 2 pts from the 2.9 it was in 2016. It ended up be 3.8.

 7 
 on: Today at 09:01:42 AM 
Started by ProgressiveModerate - Last post by Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
I just argued with two people that believes those NV polls and Emerson has it 51/49 Trump
 We know what the polls are doing Biden loses if he can't secure NV or AZ

 8 
 on: Today at 09:00:45 AM 
Started by Arizona Iced Tea - Last post by kwabbit
I’d assume that Trump and Haley’s numbers are flipped in that county.

All of Trump’s Election Day votes were allocated to Haley. Not a flip, they just had Haley getting every vote on e-day, while Trump actually got nearly 90% in the by-congressional district e-day count.

 9 
 on: Today at 08:58:38 AM 
Started by Arizona Iced Tea - Last post by kwabbit
It's suspicious but I don't think that's enough evidence to conclude there was an error.

The results for the county in the by-Congressional district count have Trump at like 85%. It was an error, no speculation is necessary.

 10 
 on: Today at 08:57:41 AM 
Started by jojoju1998 - Last post by jojoju1998
You realize the issue is the content of the speech, not the fact that he's a catholic who gave a commencement speech at a catholic university?

I know. And I have problems with it as a Catholic myself.


I mean for one thing, Catholic Teaching says that the celibate religious life is the highest calling. So what does he think about all those nuns and sisters who serve around the world ?



Are they any less because they had a vocaton not to get married ? Oh boy, all those nuns/sisters will be pissed.






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