Hamster
Jr. Member
Posts: 260
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« on: May 10, 2014, 07:52:43 PM » |
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« edited: May 10, 2014, 07:56:26 PM by Hamster »
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We don't even know who is running!
Historically, IA and NH are split between two candidates. In fact, the only competitive race with the modern primary system in which a GOP candidate won both states was Gerald Ford in 1976. So I'm going to go with the safe answer of nobody.
EDIT: But that wasn't what you asked, you want to know who we think will win the first two states. I guess I'll keep it for posterity's sake.
If Huckabee runs then he will win Iowa. If Bush runs (and does not flop) then he should win New Hampshire. Generally speaking, the conservative candidate is expected to win Iowa and make a decent run, but then lose to the establishment pick, who wins New Hampshire. Whether 2016 is actually that formulaic remains to be seen.
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