Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another riding poll (add usual warnings of the dire records of these etc)... this time for Goodale's seat; Wascana (the smarter parts of Regina and the usual load of rural areas thrown in as well for no good reason)...

Goodale: 44%
Tory: 38%
Dipper: 14%

In other Saskatchewan news, huge increases in the number of people voting in advance polls have been reported in Regina-Qu'Appelle and Palliser

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls holding steady-ish right now (give or take a few MoE). So here are some interesting regional developments...

*Ontario numbers are all over place; leads (of differing sizes) for both Cons and Libs reported. Liberals holding up well in Toronto, still doing badly nearly everywhere else apparently. NDP seem to have picked up some steam over the past few days, uncertain how much.

*Quebec numbers still look grim for the Libs. Looks like the Bloc won't crack 50%. Good Tory numbers are clearly no blip.

*The Tories appear to have taken a lead in the Atlantic; uncertain by how much. NDP seem to be doing fairly well. Atlantic polls have huge, huge MoE's so...

*Tories continue to lead out West, although now in the low 40's rather than the high 40's. NDP numbers have taken a definate upswing over the past week or so (one of the few (ie; along with the Tories in Quebec) changes in regional numbers that seem to be more than statistical blippery). Liberals still seem to be dropping out there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regional breakdowns from SES (15th to 19th daily tracker added together)... 5 day roll...

Atlantic: Con 40%, Lib 35%, NDP 22%
Montreal: BQ 41%, Lib 23%, NDP 17%, Con 14%
RestofQuebec: BQ 46%, Con 28%, Lib 16%, NDP 8%
GTA: Lib 37%, Con 36%, NDP 20%, Grn 8%
SWOnt: Con 44%, Lib 37%, NDP 15%
EandNOnt: Lib 45%, Con 36%, NDP 15%*
ManSask: Con 41%, Lib 28%, NDP 27%
Alberta: Con 55%, Lib 26%, NDP 11%, Grn 8%
BC: Con 33%, Lib 33%, NDP 29%

*I think that this sample might have blown up...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Do any more respectable polls come out tomorrow or Monday?

I'm not sure what the laws are on polling (I think they ban them on election day. Not sure though) but I think there'll be some more tomorrow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Found this semi-interesting...

Recent Layton campaign stops include Vancouver, Regina, Thunder Bay, Sudbury and London. IIRC he also did a video link thingy for the Madawaska-Restigouche riding in northern New Brunswick (as the weather was bad).

Harper was in Toronto (Don Mills area), Strathroy, Guelph and Sarnia. He was actually in PEI the other day IIRC.

Martin was in London, Kitchener, Brampton and Winnipeg (with a seperate stop in the St. Boniface area).

Duceppe was in Levis, Saguenay, Ascot, Cowansville and Montreal.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, or any one else that knows...

What are the nature of the districts that each candidate is visiting? Is Harper assaulting Liberal ridings (or Martin vica-versa)...or are both leaders trying to shore up weaker districts?

O.K...

Vancouver has two NDP targets and the metro area in general has a couple more, Regina is the victim of crazy riding boundaries but forms the core of at least one crucial NDP target (maybe more), Thunder Bay is divided between two Liberal seats (both NDP targets), the same with Sudbury (sort of), and the NDP are targeting a riding in the eastern, blue collar, end of London. Madawaska-Restigouche (sp?) is a blue collar francophone riding in northwest New Brunswick and has suffered some serious job cuts of late. In other words Layton is on the offensive.

The Don Mills area of Toronto includes several Liberal ridings with large majorities; all are very rich and white collar though, Strathroy is in a key swing riding in SW Ontario, Guelph looked to be safe Liberal seat until a few weeks ago... the same story with Sarnia. Both are in SW Ontario. PEI is o/c Prince Edward Island; all Liberal since 1988. Tories think they can win the main urban riding there. In other words, he's also on the offensive.

London contains two marginal Liberal seats (one to the NDP one to the Tories) and another unstable Liberal seat, Kitchener is the core of an (almost all Liberal in 2004) key swing region of Ontario, same with Brampton (which is where Siege lives, btw). Winnipeg is home to some vunerable Liberal ridings, some safe NDP ridings and two marginal (in 2004) Tory ridings. St. Boniface has been regarded as a Liberal stronghold for something like a century (although it has gone Tory in big sweeps and by-elections). In other words, Martin is in deep doo-doo.

Levis is just across the river from Quebec City, Saguenay is the area around Jonquire (sp?) and is usually a seperatist stronghold (apparently Tories running well there), Ascot and Cowansville are in the Eastern Townships and you know where Montreal is. In other words, he's attacking the Liberals and trying to fight off the Tories.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polling is banned within 48 hours of the polls opening. No more polls, guys.

Damn

I guess there's always a hope that some polls done yesterday have yet to be published...

Anyways I'm currently adding a new set of predictions to me blog

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Electionprediction.com (and similer sites etc) has a tendency to be somewhat pro-incumbent in it's calls; it's missed one electoral landslide (the last Quebec provincial election) before, for example.

Still a good site though; reading people's predictions being the main attraction.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Final SC poll... Con 37%, Lib 27%, NDP 18%. All regional changes well within the MoE. Pollster says things are very steady now; few changes over the past few days.

Also have a look at this: http://www.ekos.com/admin/articles/21Jan2006Background.pdf

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So the crazy poll ban is no more?

Liberals down to 24%; now that is interesting...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here is the IPSOS poll BTW

and here is the Strategic Council Poll

Interesting numbers; seems like the real fight is for official oppsition...

Oh and looking at the region figures... if my guess about where Liberal support is swinging to the Tories in Sask/Man (ie; the white collar parts of the Winnipeg metro. IIRC a riding poll backs me up on that) then there's a decent change of their being *no* Liberal M.P's left in the Prairie provinces...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With Harper set to take over as Prime Minister from Martin, who will now be the most left-wing head of government left at those G8 meetings?  Tony Blair?  Jacques Chirac???

Depends what you mean by leftwing, but in most respects Martin is significantly to the right of King Tony. In terms of policy he isn't on what are usually termed "social issues" o/c; although that may be because Canada is a much more socially liberal country than the U.K rather than any convictions on his part. Interestingly his record as Finance Minister was largely to the right of Lawson over here...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What riding is Paul Martin in?

LaSalle-Emard; a francophone riding in southern Montreal with a large anglo population.
Harper is in Calgary Southwest (IIRC it's quite suburban and upper middle class. Could be wrong; I don't know Calgary well).
Layton is in the absurdly named Toronto-Danforth (diverse and still quite industrial inner city riding in eastern Toronto)
Duceppe is in Laurier (I forget the second part of the riding name), a working class and heavily francophone riding in eastern Montreal.

Martin won by a lot in 2004, but the Bloc claims it can take him out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

O.K... do you all want a seperate results thread (ala U.K election) or do you want to keep it all in this thread?

I'd like you to all behave regardless; although I'm thinking of drawing up a list of candidates that you're aloud to gloat in an obnoxious way if they're defeated... Lapierre, Goodale, Wappel, etc... actually if Wappel loses, gloating should probably be compulsory...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here's a fun feature for the serious junkies among you:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/elections/fed2005/fragments/results/provincialResults.html

You click on the province for breakdown by parties (e.g., CPC, NDP, the marijuana party, etc.)  It's empty now, but stay tuned at 10:00 pm EST.

Cool

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I could do; problem is results don't come online anywhere til about 3am my time (or is it 2am? or 4am?) due to the daft blackout law.
Predictions should all be done soon (even if a lot of safe Ont/Qu. ridings won't get individually named...) though

Now to check if any radio station over here is covering the results in anyway...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have made a predictions thread for you all

Post all results and stuff in this thread.

Thanks

*Is tired now; needs sleep...*

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that is impressive...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Harper has about six months of safety IMO; the Grits will be in effect leaderless for most of that time, and neither the Bloc or NDP will want new elections ('cos voters don't like having too many elections in one year... as such the NDP won't want to blow their gains and the Bloc won't want to lose even more seats to the Tories). IIRC the Liberals also have financing problems.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That is scary.  Just hope they do not go all Zogby on us and think their numbers create reality.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sounds about right; if Harper can make it to 2008 he'll have done very well...
O/c the big question is whether he's a Diefenbaker or a Clark... looking at media stuff, the general assumption is very much the latter. Not sure myself...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...if they had any brains they'd be thinking that
Harper will need them on most votes I think... he'll actually need the Dippers on some other stuff (unless he decides to piss off his Western ex-Reformist base...) o/c.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Two words:

"Michael Ignatieff"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The funny thing is that a PR-system would have secured a Liberal government supported  by the Greens and NDP

No chance of either supporting a Liberal government after the stuff that's been going on over the past few years... unless they like the idea of electoral suicide.
The Canadian Greenies aren't left wing anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this Harper a good speaker/performer or charismatic?

No

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is Bob Rae even a Liberal? IIRC the only reason why he made his public break with the federal NDP a few years ago was down to McDonough's policies on the Middle East. From the noises he made a few years ago, he'd only re-enter politics if there was another referendum in Quebec... and the 42% won by le Bloc makes that unlikely...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

how would you place them then?

They're quite rightwing economically; the current leader is an ex-Tory. IIRC he purged the party of most of it's lefties a while ago.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not really. Short-term influence resulting in another electoral meltdown isn't really in their interest.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Martin led a minority government before this election and he certainly wasn't humble.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not so. Look at what % they polled in 1993.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...but propping up Martin after *this* would be extremely unpopular with the NDP's core voters. And most voters; the electorate clearly wanted Martin out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting; what would the Manitoba numbers be if you add the I-NDP vote to the NDP vote?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

By the way Al, you said that Outremont might not even be the NDP's best result in Québec. It was. But can you guess what the second best was - and their only second place here, too?

Hmm... IIRC the only two good showings outside Montreal were Hull-Aylmer (15%) and Manicouagan (12%)... so it'd have to be a Montreal riding... hmm... I'll take a guess at one of the other inner-Montreal ridings as they're the only ones where the party has a little bit of organisation... so... either Laurier-Sainte-Marie or Westmount-Ville-Marie. Both are very different ridings in most respects o/c...