Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Tartarus Sauce]

Well, KS-3 should be fun in 2018.

And KS-02

I'm still dubious they could pull off a win in KS-02, but under a hypothetical special like this one with a Brownback tainted candidate and sub-par Trump approvals and a strong Dem candidate, I wouldn't be surprised if they could knock it to within a 3% margin.

[Nyvin]

Have the results just really slowed down in the last 10 minutes or so?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
481 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 78%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Estes, Ron   GOP   46,176   52%
Thompson, James   Dem   40,305   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,534   2%


All but 9 precincts of the remaining vote are in Sedgwick, so maybe not completely over.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The SOS is on hold, but AP is still updating.

[Xing]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

Well, to be fair, if there were a special election in a district like IL-09, and the Democrat only won by 5, I'm pretty sure Republicans would consider that a symbolic victory.

[DrScholl]

There is no way to pretend that this isn't a bad result for Republicans. If they only barely win a 60-33 Trump district, then how on earth can they hold GA-6 which is +1 Trump. This is a huge warning of disastrous midterm.

[Wiz in Wis]

The idea that the Dem even had a shot here should scare this crap out of the GOP... and yet some blue avatars here are gloating. If the Dems had won this race, then they would have been in line to take like 360 seats in 2018.

And no, the DCCC/DNC made no major errors here... Nationalizing this race could have HURT Thompson.

[jamestroll]

There is no way to pretend that this isn't a bad result for Republicans. If they only barely win a 60-33 Trump district, then how on earth can they hold GA-6 which is +1 Trump. This is a huge warning of disastrous midterm.

Well to be fair all races have different circumstances and I do not really believe in uniform swings.

[Barnes]

What an embarrassing result for Republicans.

Spin, spin, spin.... LOL!

Well, to be fair, if there were a special election in a district like IL-09, and the Democrat only won by 5, I'm pretty sure Republicans would consider that a symbolic victory.

As they very well should. It would be a clear sign that some serious sh**t was going on.

[bedstuy]

Great result for Democrats!!!

LAVENOUS!!!

[VPH]

Bummed out because it was *so close* but this really is incredible.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Given the trend in Sedgwick (only Thompson+7 now), and the Estes win in Harvey (all in now), I am ready to call this.

U.S. House - District 4 - Special General
South Central
513 of 620 Precincts Reporting - 83%
Name   Party   Votes   Vote %
Estes, Ron   GOP   50,066   52% WINNER
Thompson, James   Dem   44,006   46%
Rockhold, Chris   Lib   1,655   2%

[100% pro-life no matter what]

FOX (Jackie Ibanez) seems to think this is a Senate race, saying "Senator Pompeo" and calling it a Senate race.

[ApatheticAustrian]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

[Matty]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

Special elections are special. Turnout was by all accounts abysmal.

Also, what is happening in kansas is NOT happening in other states. The state is in the midst of a finance crisis, with the guy running today directly tied to it.

All politics is local.

Remember kansas during the 2014 national gop wave?

[Mike Thick]

I'm no Trumpite, but as someone earlier said, Thompson localized the race and tried to turn it into a referendum on Brownback. Because of this, and Estes's virtually nonexistent campaign, this is probably not a great barometer for the political climate.

I think GA-06 will be a much better indicator of the national mood.

[DrScholl]

There is no way to pretend that this isn't a bad result for Republicans. If they only barely win a 60-33 Trump district, then how on earth can they hold GA-6 which is +1 Trump. This is a huge warning of disastrous midterm.

Well to be fair all races have different circumstances and I do not really believe in uniform swings.

Fair to who? I wasn't being unfair to anyone, I was merely pointing out that Republicans have a major problem.

[ApatheticAustrian]

It's pretty remarkable that the circular firing squad in #KS04 tonight is being convened by the party that over performed by 20 points
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/851982885292830722


@Ted Bessell: Sure but if estes's campaign is non-existent, so is the national support of the DNC, while the RNC used the big guns in the last days.

[DrScholl]

only the trolls are gloating, whoever knows anything about this stuff is quite serious.

Special elections are special. Turnout was by all accounts abysmal.

Also, what is happening in kansas is NOT happening in other states. The state is in the midst of a finance crisis, with the guy running today directly tied to it.

All politics is local.

Remember kansas during the 2014 national gop wave?

The "all politics is local" logic is dead and gone when it comes to federal races. This race would not have been close under a Democratic administration.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to put it into perspective, let's look at all of the House districts where the 2016 Democratic vote was greater than the 2014 GOP vote. There are approximately 75 GOP-held districts that would flip in a scenario where you have presidential Dem turnout versus GOP midterm turnout:



And KS-04 isn't even one of them.

[Holmes]

Well Thompson has a base here now. He can run statewide if he wants, or actually campaign here over the next year and a half and hope for better results. A Democrats might even provide coattails if they're winning the governor's race. Maybe.

[heatcharger]

Well Estes' margin just narrowed to 5.7% with 88% reporting. Appears the Election Day vote in Sedgwick was decisively more Democratic than the ED vote elsewhere.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

A pretty good performance factoring in how bad the turnout is.

[Mike Thick]

It's pretty remarkable that the circular firing squad in #KS04 tonight is being convened by the party that over performed by 20 points
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/851982885292830722


@Ted Bessell: Sure but if estes's campaign is non-existent, so is the national support of the DNC, while the RNC used the big guns in the last days.

I suppose, but the absence of a strong Democratic campaign isn't as much of a departure from the norm as the absence of a strong Republican one. My point is that there are circumstances other than Trump leading to Estes's underperformance.

[Nyvin]

Thompson just went up 0.3%