UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[Phony Moderate]

Turnout will be up to 68-69% imo.

[Phony Moderate]

New contender (via Ashcroft) for most hilarious poll of this parliament so far:

Con - 29 (-5)
Lab - 28 (nc)
UKIP - 15 (-1)
Greens - 11 (+3)
Lib Dems - 9 (+1)
Others - 9 (+3)

Leading party doing just 1% better than Michael Foot's Labour.

[Phony Moderate]

If this election's lost because of Green voters, Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas deserve to be 'Nader'ed.

If Labour loses it will be because they chose the wrong brother as their leader 5 years ago.

Same thing would be being said if they had chosen David.

[Phony Moderate]

Many top Tories are probably regretting that they opposed AV now.

[Phony Moderate]

Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes - 49% (+1%)
No - 44% (-1%)

Excluding Don't Knows
Yes - 52%
No - 48%

Why a Yes majority now, when it is too late? Just protest votes or a genuine swing?

Because a fair number of No voters are coming to the view that they were had.

[Phony Moderate]

Seeing that the Ashcroft polls are suggesting that Margaret Curran could lose her Glasgow East seat - which would be at least a 19% swing. The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

Really? For a record swing that is spectacularly low.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._John's_East
2006: Conservative beats Liberal by 5
2008: NDP beats Liberal by 62 (Conservatives in third)

We are much less fickle than you guys.

[Phony Moderate]

The record swing in a general election in the UK is 21%.

Where does that figure come from? If we're using swing in the sense the media does, then Southwark & Bermondsey in 1983 would have been over 30pts, for instance. If you're talking in a strict psephological hard-ass sense (which would make no sense given the context, but whatever) then it only applies to the Labour/Tory swing (and then the postwar record it is about 21pts; Merthyr in 1970).

(Change in party 1 vote + change in party 2 vote) / 2

Anyone who knows the word 'psephological' is going to know how swing is measured, I imagine.

[Phony Moderate]

Would not polls like this from Scotland cause LD and Labor voters to tactically vote to defeat SNP and keep the number of seats won by the SNP lower than what the polls imply ?

According to the details of the poll, only 33% of voters in these seats said they would never vote SNP, compared to Labour in the 40s and the Lib Dems in the 70s.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour are about to wheel A. C. L. Blair out again, it seems.

[Phony Moderate]

Four U.S. presidential elections have produced electoral college winners who lost the popular vote, remember.

[Phony Moderate]

The Political Compass has published its 2015 UK party chart and analysis: http://www.politicalcompass.org/uk2015

Highlight:

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LOL

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos-MORI:

Labour - 36% (+2)
Tories - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 9% (-2)
Greens - 7% (-1)
Lib Dems - 6% (-2)

So UKIP may be showing signs of decline, but it doesn't seem to be helping the Tories.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02/13/milly-dowler-row-over-mil_n_6676728.html?utm_hp_ref=uk

You've gotta feel at little bit sorry for EdM.

They're trying everything and seeing what sticks.

The Conservatives and the Conservative supporting press don't need to try so hard. Ed Miliband is a weak prime ministerial candidate and everybody knows it.

Same thing was said about Thatcher in 1979.

Also, no such thing as a "prime ministerial candidate".

[Phony Moderate]

Can I remind everyone that David Cameron only got 36% of the vote last time?

Yeah, actually a lower share than Callaghan achieved. But he (relatively speaking) telegenic so no one labels him a weak leader.

[Phony Moderate]

I'd like to see a detailed poll of the 40% or so of those intending to vote Labour who think Ed Miliband is doing badly; How firm are they in their intentions? What could make them change their minds? etc

[Phony Moderate]

So, 9PM tomorrow night on Channel 4...

http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-02-15/channel-4-elects-nigel-farage-prime-minister-in-new-drama-ukip-the-first-100-days

[Phony Moderate]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections and their final poll for last year's European elections had UKIP in third place. If the term 'gold standard' can be applied to any polling outfit then it would be YouGov (despite that now-legendary 51-49 Yes poll). Certainly they are the most reliable for getting a sense of current VI because, obviously, they release five polls per week.

[Phony Moderate]

And now Ashcroft has Labour back into the lead with a sharpish drop in the Tory share: Labour 31, Tories 30 (-4), UKIP 16 (+2), Lib Dems 9, Greens 8 (+2).

[Phony Moderate]

Tories will be pleased by the ICM poll, as it is seen as the 'gold standard'. But actually that it one of those myths that is widely accepted as fact; they were not the most accurate polling outfit in the two most recent general elections

Who were the most accurate pollsters?

I believe NOP was spot on with all three major party percentages in 2005 (who don't seem to be active anymore). In 2010, it was actually some obscure Indian organization IIRC.

[Phony Moderate]

But that Winston "Farage is Jesus" McKenzie will be standing for UKIP somewhere no doubt.

[Phony Moderate]

Also, I think 20-36 point increases counts as a breakthrough.

[Phony Moderate]

Yeah, the Greens will pick up a lot of the trendy left-liberal middle-class student types who would be backing the Lib Dems if not for the coalition. They are reluctant to vote Labour due to the party's (still) working-class image and they'd eat their own babies before voting Tory or UKIP.

[Phony Moderate]

Fun read here: https://drseansdiary.wordpress.com/2015/02/20/use-your-ed-how-i-put-miliband-into-number-10-just/

Anyone have the 2015 version of the game yet?

[Phony Moderate]

Can/will Jim Murphy survive (as leader of the SLP that is) if Labour gets wiped out (or anywhere close to it) in Scotland?

[Phony Moderate]

Can/will Jim Murphy survive (as leader of the SLP that is) if Labour gets wiped out (or anywhere close to it) in Scotland?

Well, who else do they have? He'll be there until the Holyrood election at least, I'd think.

Either of two candidates he defeated? They need someone who is to the left of the SNP, but still staunchly unionist.