Predict Margin (%) for KS-Senate
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 02, 2024, 04:18:26 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Predict Margin (%) for KS-Senate		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Predict Margin (%) for KS-Senate  (Read 656 times)
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 05, 2014, 03:03:46 PM »
51% Orman
45% Roberts
4% Batson

I'm starting to think this is over. Orman wins, not in a landslide, but very convincingly.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,102
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2014, 03:12:19 PM »
Orman - 49%
Roberts - 46%
Batson - 5%

Just changed my prediction today.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,527
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2014, 03:16:05 PM »
Orman:  49%
Roberts:  45%
Batson:  6%
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,809
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2014, 03:41:18 PM »
Quote from: TDAS04 on October 05, 2014, 03:16:05 PM
Orman:  49%
Roberts:  45%
Batson:  6%
Logged
Atlas Has Shrugged
ChairmanSanchez
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 38,095
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2014, 03:54:30 PM »
Orman - 48%
Roberts - 47.8%
Batson - 4.1%

Something like this (stealing EG's color scheme).
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,949


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2014, 03:55:32 PM »
Orman 52
Roberts 45
Batson 3
Logged
Kushahontas
floating_to_sea
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,627
Kenya


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2014, 03:59:01 PM »
49-46 Orman
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,861
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2014, 04:27:17 PM »
Roberts 48
Orman 46
Batson 4
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2014, 05:23:05 PM »
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2014, 05:47:05 PM »
Logged
Flake
Flo
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,688
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2014, 05:53:09 PM »
Orman: 52%
Roberts: 46%
Batson: 2%
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,668
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2014, 05:54:28 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2014, 11:44:54 PM by Skill and Chance »
Orman 49
Roberts 43
Batson 8
Logged
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,003
Latvia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2014, 07:03:27 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2014, 03:42:36 PM by SPC »
Orman 48%
Roberts 47%
Batson 5%

EDIT: Admittedly it is a small sample size, but in three recent races where an incumbent in a safe state for his own party was down a sizable amount in the polls in early October (Alaska 2004, Montana 2006, Alaska 2008), the incumbent performed roughly 5 points stronger than expected. I will err on the side of trusting the polls, since Orman's lead is roughly 5 points, but I suspect that this race will be closer than currently forecasted.
Logged
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2014, 10:14:42 PM »
Orman 50%
Roberts 46%
Batson 3%

Just changed my prediction.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.235 seconds with 12 queries.