With Snyder's worst result in the last 20 polls cited on RCP being a tie I don't think you could make the argument that he's not going to win reelection. People who may know more about Michigan politics can offer plausible arguments for why Schauer is competitive, but that's not the same as suggesting that Snyder should plan to have a lot of free time on his hands in half an year.
The political environment of 2014 is not the same as 2012, and it does seem that there's some wishful thinking from people who would prefer Mark Schauer in the Governor's mansion.
He's clearly not going to win in a landslide though, he'll likely win narrowly in November throwing out his argument that he could carry MI in a national race out the window.
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