The gender gap was less than in 2000 - only 7 points. What are the possible reasons behind this?
Bush gained 5 points among women, compared to just 2 points among men. I do not know if this would explain the gender gap falling so much, but its safe to say the the drop has come due to movement among
women.
Here are some points-
1. In 2000, the debate was primarily over domestic and especially economic issues. In these issues, women are more liberal across the board by between a couple and several percentage points. In 2004, the debate was primarily over foreign policy. Women are also less likely to favor the use of force in foreign policy.
However, Kerry never really made an issue of the war itself. He made an issue of how much body armor the troops were going to get, etc. In other words, Kerry did not hammer strongly enough the Democratic issues that women respond to, he only spewed rhetoric, and the campaign was largely based on around image.
2. Voting is often influenced by social (family, community, and national "environmental") cross-pressures. It is my personal hypothesis that women, being less knowledgeable about politics, as it is still stereotyped as a "man's game" to some extent, are more susecptible to these cross-pressures. For example, a Democratic woman married to a Republican man is more likely to change her view, all other things equal, than vice versa. When the national "climate" is either favorable or neutral to the woman's independent view, she is more likely to be able to withstand such pressures and vote her own mind. But when the national "climate", as indicated by campaigning tactics, incumbency, polling, media, and other factors favor the husband's view, she is more likely to be influenced.
This is the feminist position to take, because it hypothesizes that many women, because of mens' dominance in political officeholding and discourse, are not as knowledgeable about politics and thus feel pressured disproportionately to 'cave' to the husband's viewpoint instead of making up her own mind.
It also posits (implicitly) that the appearance of the gender gap in 1980 was due in part to more married women thinking for themselves rather than simply voting as their husbands did in ages past. The 1980 election was the first relatively polarizing (and relatively close, at least until the last weekend) election since the feminist movement occured.
