The assumption the guy will be any more hated than any generic Democrat is rather foolish considering Blago will no longer be in office and a bad memory by then, and he's the only thing holdng any Democrats in the state down.
If this guy acts like as much of a clown as he already does, I'm sure he'll give us plenty of things to use against him.
...and any potential primary challenger.
but what if he's the only negro!
Blacks only make up about a quarter of primary voters. In 2004 Obama won the white vote. Burris has no crossover appeal.
Take a look at how many white candidates there were in that race. That certainly helped Obama.
He still got over 50%, so that doesn't matter.
In a primary full of less than mediocre white candidates (aside from Hynes).
But even that's one non-mediocre white candidate, and he still got over 50%.
The point is pretty simple: As crowded as primaries can get, you're not going to win one with 25%. If Burris ends up so bad he could actually lose as a Democrat in Illinois (and btw this is only relevant if he runs where the odds aren't even 50/50), he's not going to get any higher than that. Nor is Kirk going to run if he sees any chance of losing, nor is Kirk even guaranteed the nomination if he does run, nor is Kirk even the favorite against Democrat, etc. Look elsewhere for a pickup, you need an absolutely best case scenario here.
