Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The court ruling is even more far-reaching than I thought:

The Constitutional Court wiped out the data collection and storage law completely, effective immediately.

The court didn't even grant the government the possibility to "fix" the law (for example for murder cases).

The court also ordered that the government needs to delete all stored data.



...

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http://www.wienerzeitung.at/dossiers/netzpolitik/640894_VfGH-hebt-Vorratsdatenspeicherung-auf.html

[Zanas]

We all know that this is a decision aimed only at appeasing the general public while the government and police will obviously still keep on doing it secretly because, well, sometimes it really has to. Right ?

[Cranberry]

We all know that this is a decision aimed only at appeasing the general public while the government and police will obviously still keep on doing it secretly because, well, sometimes it really has to. Right ?

Well, I wouldn't think so. The VfGH normally is independent, and usually the government has to do what they say. At least that's how it appears to me.

[Tender Branson]

We all know that this is a decision aimed only at appeasing the general public while the government and police will obviously still keep on doing it secretly because, well, sometimes it really has to. Right ?

Well, I wouldn't think so. The VfGH normally is independent, and usually the government has to do what they say. At least that's how it appears to me.

This.

Unless you are a conspiracy theorist ...

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg state election has been set for September 21.

Some updates:

The signature collection period has already started and ends on August 1.

Parties that want to be on the ballot need 100 signatures per district. There are 4 districts in Vbg.

ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens and SPÖ don't need to collect signatures, because they are already represented in the state parliament.

NEOS needs to collect them, but already has more than enough signatures in 2 districts after a few days of collecting.

Other parties that will try to get on the ballot:

* Pirate Party
* Christian Party of Austria (CPÖ)
* Men's Party
* Die Buntkarierten (Literally: "The colourfully-checkered-ones"), like in:



They seem to be a minor, "cosmopolitan" party - according to their website.

Meanwhile, the Team Stronach and the BZÖ have already announced that they will not run in the state election.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:

27% FPÖ
26% SPÖ
20% ÖVP
14% Greens
  9% NEOS
  4% Others

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/OeSTERREICH-Umfrage-FPOe-liegt-weiter-vor-SPOe-auf-Platz-eins/149813061

Also:

34% of Austrians want to legalize pot, while 58% are opposed (according to a Unique Research poll for the weekly "Profil" magazine).

http://www.profil.at/articles/1427/980/376553/umfrage-34-legalisierung-cannabis

(A recent Eurobarometer poll has shown though that young Austrians actually support legalization with 52%).

And:

NEOS has all signatures collected to appear on the ballot in the Vorarlberg state election.

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach has recently said that he intends to campaign in the 2015 Styria state election (but not lead the TS list there and not support them financially).

http://www.thelocal.at/20140707/stronach-plans-political-comeback

There are 3 other state elections next year (Vienna, Upper Austria and Burgenland), but according to Stronach it is unclear if the TS will compete in these elections, or only focus on his home state Styria.

Well, considering that current polls show the FPÖ has a chance of coming out first in Styria next year, I think it would be good if the TS has a decent showing there so that the FPÖ's chances at winning are reduced.

[Tender Branson]

Frank Stronach has recently said that he intends to campaign in the 2015 Styria state election (but not lead the TS list there and not support them financially).

http://www.thelocal.at/20140707/stronach-plans-political-comeback

There are 3 other state elections next year (Vienna, Upper Austria and Burgenland), but according to Stronach it is unclear if the TS will compete in these elections, or only focus on his home state Styria.

Well, considering that current polls show the FPÖ has a chance of coming out first in Styria next year, I think it would be good if the TS has a decent showing there so that the FPÖ's chances at winning are reduced.

Team Stronach to run in Styria and Upper Austria next year - and likely in the Burgenland too, according to the "Standard".

http://derstandard.at/2000002768745/Team-Stronach-tritt-in-Oberoesterreich-und-Steiermark-an

Vienna is still unclear.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Does anyone still care about TS? I don't ever recall hearing about a party falling and disappearing so fast.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone still care about TS? I don't ever recall hearing about a party falling and disappearing so fast.

Nobody really cares about the TS anymore.

Kathrin Nachbaur, who is now the TS-leader after Frank left for Canada again, recently said that the media is responsible for the collapse of the TS and that the party will have a "big comeback" next year ...

(The only comeback that is possible for TS is likely in Styria, especially around Graz and south to it in the so called "car-cluster", where Stronach's car parts factories are and the workers there and their families might vote TS out of sympathy/loyalty. Burgenland might be another option, because many commuters from the south of the state are working in and around Graz. But 4% or more still means a lot of work for a party that's currently at 1-2% in federal polls ...)

[Tender Branson]

New Profil magazine/Unique Research poll (sample = 500, online)

28% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
21% ÖVP
12% Greens
11% NEOS
  2% TS
  2% Others

Direct vote for Chancellor:

18% Werner Faymann (SPÖ)
17% Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ)
13% Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP)
  7% Eva Glawischnig (Greens)
  5% Matthias Strolz (NEOS)
  3% Kathrin Nachbaur (Team Stronach)
37% Others/None of these people

"Do you favor or oppose a political comeback from Frank Stronach in Austria ?"

14% Favor
73% Oppose
13% Undecided

http://www.profil.at/articles/1428/980/376709/umfrage-fpoe-nummer

[Tender Branson]

So, President Heinz Fischer (a Social Democrat) just had his 10-year anniversary as Austrian President (he's in office for another 2 years, assuming he doesn't die earlier).

For this anniversary, he visited the biggest homeless center in Vienna - the so-called "Gruft" (tomb), which is operated by Caritas, and took his meal there and talked with the homeless:

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I am very surprised more people want to see Kathrin Nachbaur as Chancellor, than would actually vote for her party.

 

[Tender Branson]

I am very surprised more people want to see Kathrin Nachbaur as Chancellor, than would actually vote for her party.

Margin of error, most likely. Probably a sample with a few people who see her favorably. Other polls have shown her at 0% or 1% at best.

Another scenario: The more she is in the news, the more her (very low) support will rise. And she recently gave a few interviews.

[Cranberry]

Change of Parliamentary Investigation Committees (U-Ausschuss) to come:

Kleine Zeitung: U-Ausschuss wird Minderheitenrecht (Article in German)

U-Ausschüsse have been a point of litigation between the opposition and the SPÖÖVP-Government lately, mainly because of the HYPO-causa. The opposition wanted to install a U-Ausschuss (parliamentary investigation committee) to investigate the dubious hypo-on goings, yet a majority is needed to call such an U-Ausschuss. Apparently, the leaders of SPÖ and ÖVP came to an agreement with FPÖ, Grüne and NEOS. U-Ausschüsse may now be called by a quarter of the MPs. Furthermore, one of the three Nationalratspräsidenten has to be the chairman of the U-Ausschuss, but can be replaced if wished by him by a normal MP. The new order is supported by every party but the TS, and shall come in fall.

[Tender Branson]

"Should this be OUR FUTURE ? Austrians say: NO !"

... the FPÖ-ad reads.

I'm not sure about the "future"-part (lol), but a new poll in Monday's "Profil" magazine shows that Austrians favor a ban on facial veils (incl. the burka) by a 60-27 margin, with 13% undecided.

The FPÖ-measure to ban veils (incl. the burka) failed in parliament this week. All parties except FPÖ and Team Stronach voted against a ban.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1428/980/376712/umfrage-mehrheit-burka-verbot

http://www.thelocal.at/20140711/burqa-ban-rejected-by-parliament

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll (conducted last week for the "Standard"):



The latest numbers are on the right (KW28).

Market tends to overestimate the Greens and underestimate the ÖVP (see poll trend before the Sept. 2013 election).

[Tender Branson]

That "Market"-poll revealed, that nearlly half of Austrians think, FPÖ and GREENS were part of the Federal Government!!!

This is hilarious, yeah:



94% of those polled know that SPÖ and ÖVP are part of the government.

But 49% also think that the Greens are part of it and 48% the FPÖ.

...

53% correctly say that SPÖVP is the current government coalition.

19% even think that the government is made up of all parties in the Nationcal Council !

LOL.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll:



TS has 1%, others have 2%.

[Tender Branson]

First 2016 Presidential poll by Gallup:



Of course nobody knows yet who will run and these candidates are pure speculation (except maybe Pröll).

The tabloid Ö24 (for which the poll was done) writes though that Hundstorfer is a "sure bet for the SPÖ", but they shouldn't count the chickens before they are hatched. Hundstorfer is also a likely candidate to succeed Vienna-mayor Michael Häupl (especially if he loses big time in next years state election there). Barbara Prammer is a more likely candidate (if she is fully cured of her cancer by 2016).

The 29% of Alexander Van der Bellen (a popular and slightly excentric former Green leader) look amazing for an initial poll like this, but I seriously doubt that he could get into a runoff.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/1-Umfrage-Proell-Favorit-fuer-Hofburg/151430970

[Tender Branson]

Also, the fact that the poll offers no presidential candidate from the liberal NEOS means basically all NEOS-voters are currently backing the Green Van der Bellen (remember that NEOS-voters are mostly former Green- and ÖVP-voters, but Pröll is definitely too authoritarian and conservative for them, while Van der Bellen pretty much fits the typical NEOS-voter).

If NEOS would present its own candidate, SPÖ and Greens would definitely switch places.

[EPG]

Also, the fact that the poll offers no presidential candidate from the liberal NEOS means basically all NEOS-voters are currently backing the Green Van der Bellen (remember that NEOS-voters are mostly former Green- and ÖVP-voters, but Pröll is definitely too authoritarian and conservative for them, while Van der Bellen pretty much fits the typical NEOS-voter).

If NEOS would present its own candidate, SPÖ and Greens would definitely switch places.

Does this mean that, without NEOS, the SPÖ would be in a much worse relative position today compared to ÖVP/FPÖ/Greens?

[Tender Branson]

Also, the fact that the poll offers no presidential candidate from the liberal NEOS means basically all NEOS-voters are currently backing the Green Van der Bellen (remember that NEOS-voters are mostly former Green- and ÖVP-voters, but Pröll is definitely too authoritarian and conservative for them, while Van der Bellen pretty much fits the typical NEOS-voter).

If NEOS would present its own candidate, SPÖ and Greens would definitely switch places.

Does this mean that, without NEOS, the SPÖ would be in a much worse relative position today compared to ÖVP/FPÖ/Greens?

Yes, because a NEOS-candidate would likely take enough votes away from VdB, to make the 2nd place competetive.

Hundstorfer is actually not an unpopular person or anything (he's a longtime former Unionist and since 2008 the Austrian Minister for Labour, Social Issues and Consumer Protection and in recent political rankings always had something like a +5 rating (approve minus disapprove).

But Barbara Prammer, if she were the candidate for the SPÖ, could potentially come close to the popular Erwin Pröll: Prammer is immensely popular herself (something like a 60-25 rating right now) and could chip away about 10% from Van der Bellen - also because of the chance that she'd be the first woman as Austrian President.

[EPG]

I suppose I really meant whether the SPÖ would do worse on the federal/state chamber levels.

[Cranberry]

I suppose I really meant whether the SPÖ would do worse on the federal/state chamber levels.

I wouldn't think so. NEOS and SPÖ aren't similar parties, both in terms of platform and in terms of voter constituency. Greens and ÖVP would profit from a dissapearal of the NEOS, but the SPÖ would not really profit or do worse. They still would be the strongest party, I'd say, yet the gap between ÖVP and SPÖ would be smaller.