Kaplan Strategies: Trump up In the swing states

[wbrocks67]

538 added these.... oh

2022 all over again lol

It’s a wack poll but they are rated ok by 538. Where do you draw the line to exclude? The Pennsylvania and Arizona polls aren’t that extreme, but the WI and MI polls are. Do you only let in some, even though they’ve been conducted with the same methodology? It’s a new regime at 538 and Morris has a different approach than Nate Silver and he still includes them. A good polling average will discount outliers anyway.

I would think so, but the polling average seems really sensitive; Wisconsin shifted nearly 1.5% just based on this one poll. An outlier shouldn't shift the average that much if it's counting for outliers.

EDIT: also the Kristi Noem and abortion results are just... whack lmao

Across all states, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem consistently emerges as a formidable presidential running mate. This point is especially true in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, where Noem’s net favorability of +16 (45/29) indicates significant approval and awareness of the work she has done in South Dakota. Further showing Noem’s potential positive impact to a presidential ticket, Noem was the only potential VP candidate who garnered a positive favorability rating in all four states polled - Arizona (+8), Michigan (+12), Pennsylvania (+13), and Wisconsin (+16).

Kristi Noem with a nearly 50% favorability in Wisconsin... so true!

[kwabbit]

538 added these.... oh

2022 all over again lol

It’s a wack poll but they are rated ok by 538. Where do you draw the line to exclude? The Pennsylvania and Arizona polls aren’t that extreme, but the WI and MI polls are. Do you only let in some, even though they’ve been conducted with the same methodology? It’s a new regime at 538 and Morris has a different approach than Nate Silver and he still includes them. A good polling average will discount outliers anyway.

I would think so, but the polling average seems really sensitive; Wisconsin shifted nearly 1.5% just based on this one poll. An outlier shouldn't shift the average that much if it's counting for outliers.

EDIT: also the Kristi Noem and abortion results are just... whack lmao

Across all states, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem consistently emerges as a formidable presidential running mate. This point is especially true in the key battleground state of Wisconsin, where Noem’s net favorability of +16 (45/29) indicates significant approval and awareness of the work she has done in South Dakota. Further showing Noem’s potential positive impact to a presidential ticket, Noem was the only potential VP candidate who garnered a positive favorability rating in all four states polled - Arizona (+8), Michigan (+12), Pennsylvania (+13), and Wisconsin (+16).

Kristi Noem with a nearly 50% favorability in Wisconsin... so true!

I think they should probably start marking all polls done by partisan affiliated outlets as internals, regardless of if they are sponsored. That would have solved a lot of the issue in 2022 with coefficient, insider advantage, trafalgar. Kaplan seems to be a GOP pollster so if you subtract 5 from Trumps margin and put them in the average things still get shifted just not to an unreasonable degree.

[heatcharger]

Michigan going #FullOhio?

Jim Harbaugh — tremendous guy. They said he could never beat Ohio State! They said he never had the guts. But then something incredible happened. Incredible. JJ McCarthy to the Vikings — he’s gonna do a tremendous job.

We love Michigan. These are special people.

[Crumpets]

I'll give them credit for not herding and going ahead and publishing this. That credit will go away if they are still this much of an outlier going forward and they end up missing the mark, even if it's a narrow Trump victory.

[heatcharger]

I'll give them credit for not herding and going ahead and publishing this. That credit will go away if they are still this much of an outlier going forward and they end up missing the mark, even if it's a narrow Trump victory.

Yup. I started boycotting the Washington Post after 2020. Can’t trust em.

[Eraserhead]

The Democratic Party needs to be done away with once and for all if this happens.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Democratic Party needs to be done away with once and for all if this happens.

Lol there are many polls that show Biden ahead

[Fusternino]

Reminds me of those SurveyMonkey polls from 2020.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The Democratic Party needs to be done away with once and for all if this happens.

Lol there are many polls that show Biden ahead

all fake.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marist does not lie Biden +3 Wick and Inside Advantage has Oz winning not Marist and Oz lost

Trump is not 15 pts ahead in MI

[BlueSwan]

Trump up 15 in Michigan and 10 in Wisconsin? Trash. They shouldn't even be posted

I disagree. The fact that they posted these outlandish results suggests that the polls are legit (in the sense that they are not fabricated). It is way more suspicious if all the polls from a company aligns perfectly with expectations.

[Vern]

I said this is another poll already. I do believe these polling numbers are close to right currently. And he is why.

I think Trumps percentage is close to what he will get in November. But Biden’s percentage isn’t. I believe there are Biden 2020 voters mad at him and currently undecided on if they are going to vote for him or third party. But in the end will come home and vote for him. That is why we are seeing these crazy numbers right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said this is another poll already. I do believe these polling numbers are close to right currently. And he is why.

I think Trumps percentage is close to what he will get in November. But Biden’s percentage isn’t. I believe there are Biden 2020 voters mad at him and currently undecided on if they are going to vote for him or third party. But in the end will come home and vote for him. That is why we are seeing these crazy numbers right now.

Have you seen the PA numbers we outvoted Rs in PA Primary 950 to 750 K because Trump is a criminal these polls are not right and Marist had it Biden +3 anyways


Trump gonna win lol no one wants J6 Trump back

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't look at silly polls, as the end all be all my College professors told me that that polls aren't votes

[President Johnson]

Lmao, this is even more ridiculous than the Biden +17 ABC poll from 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Polls are trying to push Trump as Prez and he is J6 we saw this with MC polls we still have to vote

[Sbane]

I said this is another poll already. I do believe these polling numbers are close to right currently. And he is why.

I think Trumps percentage is close to what he will get in November. But Biden’s percentage isn’t. I believe there are Biden 2020 voters mad at him and currently undecided on if they are going to vote for him or third party. But in the end will come home and vote for him. That is why we are seeing these crazy numbers right now.

You pretty much nailed it. I even think some of them are saying now they will vote for Trump but in the end won't turn out. This is especially true among the under 40 crowd. I think Biden will end up getting similar margins to 2020 with those under the age of 40 but with lower turnout.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls are silly