Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

The map was already depressing in 2009 and it remains depressing:



All the results from the latest state elections:

[Tender Branson]

These crosstabs show that only women aged under 45 should be allowed to vote in Vorarlberg, as well as in Austria as a whole.

[Tender Branson]

With coalition talks in Vbg. starting, Gov. Markus Wallner (ÖVP) has said that he wants a public apology from FPÖ's leader Dieter Egger for his anti-semitic remarks during the 2009 state election campaign, in which Egger called the director of the Jewish Museum in Hohenems an "exile Jew from America".

I guess the ÖVP is unlikely to enter a coalition with the FPÖ as long as Egger does not 100% apologize for his comment. The ÖVP doesn't want to be dragged into another controversial "Black-Blue coalition" (after the 2000 federal one).

Wallner has also said that the gains by the Greens is "something that needs to be taken seriously", which further increases the chances of an ÖVP-Green coalition.

http://derstandard.at/2000005868723/Schwarz-Blau-oder-Schwarz-Gruen-Vorarlbergs-Landeshauptmann-Wallner-haelt-sich

[Tender Branson]

Yes, the most important projects pushed by the Greens include the MaHü in Vienna:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=180261.msg4083333#msg4083333

And a few speed limit regulations on highways (80 km/h or 100 km/h instead of 130 km/h) to lower emissions & particulate matter concentration for example in Tyrol and Salzburg which are heavily impacted by transit cargo transports.

And do they get any influence besides environmental policies?

It looks like anything but the main parties is good for the youth, FPO Greens and NEOS all doing better than OVP and SPO.

Yepp.

For example in Salzburg (my home state), there's an ÖVP-Greens-TS government.

The state government is made up of 7 members (3 ÖVP, 3 Greens, 1 TS) and the 3 Greens have these portfolios:

Astrid Rössler (Vice-Governor)

    Naturschutz, Nationalpark
    Umweltschutz, UVP-Verfahren
    Gewässerschutz
    Gewerbeangelegenheiten
    Raumordnung
    Baurecht
    Tierschutz
    Abfallwirtschaft

Martina Berthold:

    Kinderbildung und -betreuung
    Erwachsenenbildung, Öffentliche Bibliotheken und Gemeindeentwicklung
    Wissenschaft, Universitäten, Forschung und Entwicklungszusammenarbeit
    Jugend
    Familie und Generationen
    Migration und Grundversorgung
    Sport
    Frauen
    Chancengleichheit und Anti-Diskriminierung

Heinrich Schellhorn:

    Soziales
    Pflege
    Kultur
    Volkskultur
    Museen

...

So, basically the Greens have important portfolios other than the environment as well: They get the ones who are traditionally the ones the SPÖ got when they were in government, such as Social Issues, Youth, old people care, women, anti-discrimination, asylum/migration/integration, animal rights etc.

The ÖVP gets their traditional portfolios such as the economy and agriculture.

The TS got construction and housing.

...

Currently, Martina Berthold for example has to deal with an influx of asylum seekers and how to house them in the state of Salzburg because there are hardly any quarters for them.

So, yeah, the Greens are certainly making politics in the state.

[Tender Branson]

If OVP and FPO do form a coalition would that be the first government at any level to have one since the 2000 national coalition?

Nope.

Vorarlberg had only ÖVP-FPÖ governments from the 1970s to 2009, despite the fact that the ÖVP had an absolute majority most of the time.

Also, the 2004 Carinthia state election led to the re-election of Jörg Haider (FPÖ) as Governor (he was elected Governor in state parliament with the votes of FPÖ and ÖVP, while the SPÖ and Greens abstained. Technically, the Carinthian government was, and still is, based on the principle of "Proporz" though, which means not only FPÖ and ÖVP had government posts. After the 2013 state election for example, SPÖ/ÖVP/Greens formed a coalition in Carinthia, but the FPÖ and the Team Stronach also got government posts, a so-called Landesrat. The current government wants to abolish the Proporz though in this term, so that only the coalition parties will have government posts after the next state election).

[Tender Branson]

Now there's a loooooong election break.

The next state election will take place in May 2015 and it's not really an important one: Burgenland

The important state elections will then take place in September and October and involve 3 big states: Vienna, Styria and Upper Austria.

It means that next year 55% of eligible Austrian voters will have a chance to vote in state elections.

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll:



http://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[Tender Branson]

Is this recent "surge" of ÖVP numbers the Django Mitterlehner factor?

Yepp.

[Tender Branson]

The Vorarlberg-ÖVP has decided to start coalition talks with the Greens.

The new state government should be ready by Oct. 15

http://derstandard.at/2000006069850/In-Vorarlberg-stehen-die-Zeichen-auf-Schwarz-Gruen

[Tender Branson]

The biggest news today is that the Austrian debt as a % of GDP will increase to 87% at the end of the year.

Up from 74.5% at the end of last year ...

Why ?

2 reasons: First, STATISTIK Austria recalculated "hidden" debts (6.5% of GDP) that are now added to the total and second because of the HYPO bad bank that will drive up the debt by another 6% when the bad bank starts in November.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.statistik.at/web_en/press/078766

[Tender Branson]

Carinthia's capital Klagenfurt sees the defection of a ViceMayor from FPÖ, months after another case. Thus there will be at least 5 right-populist parties next spring (FPÖ, BZÖ, T.Stronach-Köfer, 2 ex-FPÖ)...

Despite being almost meaningless (except in Klagenfurt and Villach), I'm looking forward to the Carinthian municipal elections in early 2015, when the remnants of FPÖ-rule (the remaining mayors) will finally become history.

The rest will follow in 2018, when the BZÖ and Team Stronach get kicked out of the state parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an overview of the current state governments, following the Sept. 21 state election in Vorarlberg:



Currently, the 3 western states are "Proporz"-free, meaning that all state government posts are only taken by the coalition parties in these states.

6 states still have some form of "Proporz", which means all parties in the state parliaments with a certain size (usually 10% or more) will get a government post, no matter what the coalition in this state is.

In Burgenland and Styria, the "Proporz" was abolished in the last legislative term, which means that after their state elections in 2015 they will be "Proporz"-free as well.

Carinthia's government (SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens) is in the process of getting rid of it as well and could be "Proporz"-free in time for the 2018 state election.

That means that there's a good chance that after 2018, only 3 states (Upper Austria, Lower Austria and Vienna) will still have some kind of Proporz.

But in Vienna the Proporz is only technical and "in name only" anyway, since the cabinet members of FPÖ and ÖVP under the city's Proporz-system have no powers (-> "Stadträte ohne Ressort").

In Lower Austria, the ÖVP has an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament - but after the 2013 state election still decided to enter a "working agreement" (coalition) with the SPÖ. Under the state's Proporz-system, the Team Stronach also has a cabinet post - while the FPÖ and the Greens were too weak in the state election to get any.

In Carinthia, FPÖ and Team Stronach as well have a cabinet post each due to Proporz.

In Upper Austria, despite the ÖVP-Green coalition, the SPÖ has 2 cabinet posts and the FPÖ 1.

And finally in Styria, the FPÖ has a cabinet post - with the Greens and the Communists too weak in the last state election to get any.

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Gallup/Ö24):

[Tender Branson]

Defense Minister Gerald Klug (SPÖ) announces tough budget-cuts for the Austrian military:

http://www.thelocal.at/20141003/army-announces-wide-ranging-cuts

Austria, compared with other countries, already spends one of the lowest amounts on the military (ca. 0.6% of the GDP, which is only 1/6th of what the US spends for example), and that is projected to decline to 0.5% of GDP in the next years.

I don't really mind it, as long as they sell useless military equipment that nobody needs anyway.

The military should rather focus on disaster management/help and not silly wargames with equipment that costs a ton.

[Tender Branson]

A new OGM poll for the Styria state election in 2015 shows that the FPÖ has fallen back by quite a bit and is currently not within striking distance of 1st place:



OGM is one of the best pollsters, so this is good news.

The Communists and NEOS would make it into state parliament, Team Stronach not.

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/steiermark/3757670/tut-uns-reform-partnerschaft-gut.story

[Tender Branson]

Sure, it's a very early poll; but this looks quite good for Styria.

Yepp.

And I also noticed something about the FPÖ recently:

In other countries, such as Sweden or France, the far-right parties tend to underpoll (getting lower support in polls than on election day), which is similar to what happened with the FPÖ in the 1990s.

But recently, it seems that the FPÖ is actually overpolling: In the 2013 federal election, they were polling 20-23% and got 20.5% on election day. In the EU elections, they polled 20-23% and got 19.5%. In the Vorarlberg state elections, the polled 25% and ended with 23.5%.

Maybe that's just margin of error-related stuff, but the FPÖ is certainly not underpolling anymore like in the 1990s, when people thought it was "uncool" to admit to pollsters that they are voting FPÖ.

I think a reason for the recent overpolling might be the FPÖ's increasingly younger electorate: Young FPÖ-voting people between 16-45 years of age might answer the phone or participate in online polls before the election, but then fail to show up on election day.

[Tender Branson]

First Burgenland state election poll (the poll appears in the BVZ newspaper, but the article doesn't mention the pollster, but I guess it's some sort of internal - most likely from the SPÖ. The sample size is rather big with 1000 people questioned in a state that only has 300.000 people. Burgenland will vote in May 2015):

47% SPÖ (-1% since the 2010 state election)
31% ÖVP (-4%)
10% FPÖ (+1%)
  6% Greens (+2%)
  2% NEOS (+2%)
  2% LBL (-2%)
  0% TS
  2% Others (+2%)

The article mentions that out of the 1000 people questioned, nobody said that they'd vote for the Team Stronach ...

Direct vote for Governor:

64% Hans Niessl (SPÖ-Incumbent)
25% Franz Steindl (ÖVP)

http://www.bvz.at/nachrichten/bgld/politik-bildung/art79578,574364

[Tender Branson]

Some facts about this Burgenland poll:

* The LBL (Liste Burgenland) is an independent group that only exists in Burgenland and which split off from the FPÖ before the 2010 elections. The party managed 4.0000001% or something in the 2010 state election and entered the state parliament by 1 vote (with a 4% threshold) ... So please never say again that your vote does not matter in an election

* Burgenland has abolished the "Proporz"-system during the last year, effective with the next state election. Proporz means that every party with a certain percentage at the last election will get a cabinet post in the state government. With the abolition, it means that for example should the SPÖ win the election with 47% and enter a coalition with the FPÖ or the Greens, the ÖVP would be completely in opposition with no cabinet posts. In fact, with 47% the SPÖ could choose either ÖVP, FPÖ or Greens as their coalition partner.

[Tender Branson]

In fact, with 47% the SPÖ could choose either ÖVP, FPÖ or Greens as their coalition partner.

With spoilt votes below the threshold, wouldn't they actually end up with an absolute majority with 47% ? Why would they enter a coalition in that case ?

Because they would end up with 18 of 36 seats in the state parliament.

That's not an absolute majority, as the other 3 parties could block everything in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

Some facts about this Burgenland poll:
* Burgenland has abolished the "Proporz"-system during the last year, effective with the next state election.

SPÖVP are going to abolish the Proporz!

Yes, that's what I said.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna state election poll by Unique Research for "Heute" newspaper (sample = 500, Sept. 29 to Oct. 6, MoE = +/- 4.4%). Vienna is set to vote in June or October 2015:



Direct vote for mayor:



Also:

81% of those polled say Vienna is an awesome city
82% say that the public transportation system is exemplary
59% say that they feel very safe in Vienna
57% say that they city does a lot for cyclists
74% say living is too expensive in Vienna
60% say fees are too high in Vienna
53% say that (car) drivers are neglected by the city
52% say that there are too many foreigners in Vienna (25% are foreigners btw, and ca. 40% have migration background)

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1080583

[Tender Branson]

Upper Austria state election poll (an internal for the ÖVP):

41-42% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
     10% Greens
    5-6% NEOS

http://www.meinbezirk.at/linz/politik/umfrage-oevp-liegt-bei-41-prozent-d1109953.html

2009 state election results were:

47% ÖVP
25% SPÖ
15% FPÖ
  9% Greens
  3% BZÖ
  1% Others

NEOS did not exist back then.

Upper Austria will vote in September 2015.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna poll from yesterday by sub-groups:



From top to bottom:

* men
* women
* 16-29 years old
* 30-49 years old
* 50 or older
* Matura (= the final exam in high schools and other schools that allows you to study @ unis)
* keine Matura (= without a uni-qualifying exam)

[Tender Branson]

Another interesting fact about Vienna:

In 2013, ca. 17% of eligible Vienna voters were born abroad but were naturalized, with another 2% who are 2nd generation Austrians (which means their parents were born abroad, but the voters themselves are already born in Austria). That means 19% of Vienna voters have a migration background (that is likely to increase to 20% for the 2015 state elections).

Of the 20%, the biggest share comes from EU-countries+Norway+Iceland+Switzerland with 7%, followed by former Yugoslav countries with 5%, Turks with 3%. The rest (5%) comes from other countries.

For the 2010 Vienna state election, SORA had an "exit poll" which showed that 27% of Vienna voters without migration background voted for the FPÖ.

Of the people with migration background, just 16% voted for the FPÖ.

People with migration background also backed the SPÖ by a much bigger margin than those without.

Which probably means that if the numbers of the Vienna poll yesterday are correct (SPÖ 35%, FPÖ 27%), then SPÖ and FPÖ might now be statistically tied among voters without a migration background.

[Tender Branson]

New Vienna poll by Gallup pretty much shows the same thing as the Unique Research poll that I posted above:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wien-Wahl-SPOe-verliert-7-Prozent/161041907

SPÖVP lose ground, FPÖ is stable at a high level, Greens gain a bit and NEOS would enter the state parliament (but is already quite weak).

Direct vote for Mayor: