UK local by-elections, 2017

[ag]

Hopefully, this is the good omen in the coming year for the last remaining sane party in England.

[ag]

Has nobody told Sunderland that everyone's supposed to be shifting their voting patterns based on which way they voted in the referendum?

Well, they simply voted this time for the last English party that stands for anything and knows what it wants.

[ag]

Mostly it just tells us that truly we have returned to normal; that the LibDems are distant enough from government that they can once again randomly win local polls all over the place based on anti dogsh!t campaigns or whatever. This was very common before 2010.

May be. Or may be not

[ag]

It is, rally, a long time since the LD have had similar strings of pick-ups. This would have been good even back in the days.

Consider the history from here

http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/

2017
So far, in 3 elections LD has picked up 2 seats for a total of 2 council members.

2016
290 election, 26 net LD pick-ups for a total of 51.

2015
236 elections, 2 LD pick-ups for a total of 19

2014
246 elections, 7 LD pick-ups for a total of 28

2013
334 elections, LD actually go down 4, to 38

2012
209 elections, LD gain 5 to 33

2011
169 elections, LD loose 3 to 24

2010
243 elections, LD gain 4 to 47

2009 (right before they got into the government - last time something remotely comparable)
274 elections, LD gain 18 to 68

2008
247 elections, LD gain 2 to 54

2007
198 elections, LD gain 1 to 41

2006
269 elections, LD gain 17 to 64

2005
332 elections, LD gain 12 to 78

2004
252 elections, LD gain 8 to 68

2003
161 elections, LD gain 17 to 50

2002 (the last time they had bigger gains then in 2016)
249 elections, LD gain 32 to 69

2001
382 elections, LD gain 2 to 71

[ag]

Now, by month (the numbers do not coincide, I need to see what I am missing)

Jan 2017 (so far) LD gain 2 to make it 2
Dec 2016 LD gain 6 to make it 8
Nov 2016 LD gain 2, lose 1 to make it 4
Oct 2016 LD gain 7 to make it 10
Sept 2016 LD gain 13 to make it 18
Aug 2016 LD gain 3 to make it 4
July 2016 LD gain 7 to make it 7
June 2016 post-brexit LD gain 1 to make it 1
June 2016 pre-brexit LD gain 1 to make it 3
May 2016 LD gain 2 to make it 3 (out of a huge number of elections)
April 2016 LD gain 1 to make it 2 (few elections)
March 2016 LD gain 3, lose 1 to make it 2
Feb 2016 LD gain 4, lose 4 to remain at 8
Jan 2016, LD gain 2 to make it 3
Dec 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 5
Nov 2015 LD lose 1 to make it 4
Oct 2015 LD gain 2, lose 2 to remain at 4
Sept. 2015 LD gain 2 to make it 2
Aug 2015 LD gain 3 to make it 3
July 2015 LD gain 6 to make it 7
June 2015 LD gain 4 lose 1 to make it 6
May 2015 LD lose 1 to make it 2 (huge number of elections)
April 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 1 (few elections)
March 2015 LD gain 1 to make it 1 (few elections)
February 2015 no gains, losses or seats (few elections)
January 2015 no gains, losses or seats (few elections)
December 2014 LD gain 1 to make it 1
November 2014 LD gain 1, lose 1 to make it 1

[ag]

LD are continuing their roll

I mean, it is all local cases: just lots of local coincidences

[ag]

Just a few more very local races, I guess. Right?

[ag]

And of course there's little evidence of a Brexit backlash in those other three contests. Of course there isn't much in the other two either, unless you take the view that any Lib Dem success from now on is down entirely to Brexit (which may have some merit to it...I mean what other reason is there to vote for a party led by Farron the Bible Basher?).

Considering they did not even have a candidate in two of those, and came from nowhere to a respectable result in the third...

It is not the matter of a backlash per se. It is the matter that they are the only coherently anti-Brexit party in England. Labour has chosen to drop out of being actual opposition on the most important issue out there. LibDems have the field to themselves: nobody else is playing on it. Sure, in most places it is not a majority position. But UK is an FPTP country, you do not need a majority to win anywhere, just a plurality. Three parties (Con, Lab and UKIP) are now occupying an ideologically similar position on the most important issue - while hating each other for other reasons. This may play marvels with suspending the usual incentives for strategic voting. And if that happens, we are in the world of marvellous unpredictability.

Of course, this is not the case in Scotland. The dominant party there is pro-European (the majoritarian view in the country, anyway). There is no reason to vote for LD there (unless you happen to be both pro-EU and pro-UK at the same time - a position that, I am afraid, will be becoming increasingly desperate in the coming years). Time to acknowledge that England and Scotland are different countries, with different political systems and divergent political dynamics.

[ag]

So far, if I am not mistaken, in 12 by-elections this year LD has won 5 (all gains: 3 from Con, 2 from Lab). Not a bad result on any count.

Conservatives got 2 (-3), Lab 2 (-1), UKIP 1(nil), SNP 1 (nil), others 1 (-1).

LD have got as many seats as the 3 Brexit parties combined